Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 204 will be headlined by a middleweight title fight between Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson, but the main event is not the only meaningful bout to be contested at 185 pounds.
Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi will square off for the show's co-main event in a bout with title implications. Perhaps neither man will secure a title nod with a W, but both are perennial contenders who are never too far removed from the championship picture.
Mousasi has earned back-to-back victories thus far in 2016. If not for a knockout loss suffered to Uriah Hall just over a year ago, Mousasi would be riding a five-fight win streak.
Belfort has posted a 1-2 record dating back to May 2015. The sole victory in that equation came against current No. 1 contender Henderson, while the defeats came against Chris Weidman (in a title fight) and Ronaldo Souza.
Both men are well-acquainted with the upper echelon of the UFC's middleweight class, but their outing this Saturday will mark the first time they have collided directly.
In the lead-up to the match, Bleacher Report will investigate who has the edge where and which fighter is likely to emerge with the win.
Striking
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Belfort is widely known for his striking prowess. He owns 18 career knockouts, many of which have come against respectable competition.
Though Belfort tends to start slowly, he is most dangerous early in fights. Especially since his testosterone replacement therapy exemption was revoked, Belfort has exhibited an inability to sustain the ferocity of his attacks beyond Round 1. Against both Chris Weidman and Ronaldo Souza, he looked downright spent before the first bell.
That may prove problematic against a terrific striker such as Mousasi, who has stopped 20 opponents via the knockout over the course of his career. Mousasi has also demonstrated exceptional striking defense during his UFC tenure, despite a brief lapse against Uriah Hall.
Still, Mousasi will have to tread lightly against Belfort. The Brazilian is dangerous on the feet and remains capable of winning the bout with a single connection.
Mousasi's biggest advantage in striking offense comes on the mat, where he employs fantastic ground-and-pound. Belfort has difficulty defending from his back, which may prove problematic for him in this matchup.
Given Mousasi's ability to handle Belfort's offense, and Belfort's iffy chances of handling Mousasi's, the edge goes to Mousasi.
Edge: Mousasi
Grappling
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Neither Belfort nor Mousasi invest much time into hunting the takedown. Both will take advantage of opportune moments, but putting opponents onto their backs is not usually the focal point of either fighter's game plan, something evidenced by their takedown attempts per 15 minutes, per FightMetric.
Of the two, Mousasi is more likely to utilize his wrestling to control the action. He has shown high fight intelligence by taking powerful stand-up fighters out of their element and beating them up on the canvas. This may be something he looks to do against Belfort, especially because of the Brazilian's propensity to tire.
Defensively, Mousasi employs average takedown defense but is usually capable of escaping trouble when put on the mat.
Belfort looks for the takedown even less than Mousasi and is slightly less successful. His 60 percent success rate is respectable, but Mousasi probably isn't overly concerned by the possibility of Belfort wrestling his way to a win.
Belfort's takedown defense is subpar and has left him especially vulnerable of late. Should Mousasi choose to make the takedown the focus of his attack, Belfort could be in for a rough evening.
Edge: Mousasi
Submissions
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Submissions have not played a large role in determining Belfort's career record. He's won three times via the tap and capitulated just twice. These numbers suggest a strong defensive game, which is accurate, but they also belie a solid offense.
Belfort is no submission wizard, but he is capable. Remember his near submission of Jon Jones? A stoppage against an opponent of Mousasi's caliber is not entirely out of the question. But it is unlikely.
Mousasi has been submitted just once since 2006. That blemish was made by Ronaldo Souza, a man who few survive against when dragged to the floor.
Given his strong defense, Mousasi isn't likely to lose this fight via the tap. But it's entirely possible he wins it that way. The Dreamcatcher has caught 12 opponents in fight-ending holds, good for nearly a third of his career victories.
Edge: Mousasi
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X-Factors
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Belfort's X-Factor: Maintaining an attack
There are a lot of variables that go into every mixed martial arts bout, but victories are few and far between for those unable to pace themselves for more than a few minutes. If Belfort isn't able to sustain himself for longer than he did against Chris Weidman and Ronaldo Souza, he's toast against Mousasi.
Fading quickly was never a problem for Belfort during the prime of his career, but there has been a marked dichotomy of performance from that time and his recent, post-TRT outings. Against Weidman, for example, Belfort began strong but resorted to covering up just a couple minutes into the fight. Against Souza, it was more or less the same.
A quick knockout remains possible for Belfort, but unless he finds a way to sustain his attacks, Mousasi only needs to worry about the opening few minutes of the fight—which brings us to Mousasi's X-factor.
Mousasi's X-Factor: Getting out of the gate
Mousasi is an enigmatic fighter. Sometimes he looks like a champion-level middleweight; however, other times he appears disinterested and average. Sometimes he looks both ways over the course of a single contest.
For all his flaws, Belfort remains a considerably dangerous striker when energized, so there will be no margin for error for Mousasi, especially in the fight's opening moments. In that sense, Belfort represents a challenge similar to that of Uriah Hall, whom Mousasi lost to despite controlling nearly the entire fight.
If Mousasi is able to shut down Belfort's early advances, the bout should tilt his way. If he suffers a mental lapse or comes out lethargic, he will leave the Octagon disappointed.
Prediction
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The contemporary version of Belfort remains a scary striker, though not so scary as his previous incarnation, nor scary for as long. So while a Mousasi victory is not a given, it looks like the probable outcome.
Mousasi is simply the more well-rounded fighter. He mixes up his offense better, employs better striking and takedown defense, and is able to maintain himself for a much longer time.
While Belfort always poses a knockout threat, his chance of success diminishes as time wears on. Sure, he's capable of putting Mousasi away early, but that path to victory offers a narrow margin for error.
If Mousasi is able to avoid absorbing damage in Round 1, he will take control of the action. He can do so on the feet but will most likely look to put Belfort on his back and beat him up. The blueprint has worked for other fighters, and Mousasi's diverse set of skills permits him to mimic their successes. He'll navigate through Belfort's opening salvos and put the Brazilian away before the second bell.
Prediction: Mousasi def. Belfort via TKO in Round 2
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