Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Carolina Panthers (1-2) have struggled in two of their first three games and hope to even their record as small road chalk when they visit the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons (2-1) on Sunday.

The Panthers are coming off their first home loss in more than a year, falling 22-10 to the Minnesota Vikings as six-point favorites, and look to rebound against an Atlanta team that just upset the New Orleans Saints 45-32 as a 2.5-point road underdog on Monday night.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as three-point favorites. The total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.2-20.2 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina remains the defending division champion, and the defending NFC champion for that matter, so this team is definitely battle-tested and should be able to get back on track versus the defensively challenged Falcons, who are giving up an average of more than 30 points per game.

While Atlanta has been able to outscore two of its first three opponents, the Panthers are much better defensively than any of them. Carolina has also won five of the past seven meetings with the Falcons and covered the spread in six of the last eight.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta will be playing back at home following consecutive road wins and should be ready to roll at the Georgia Dome after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-24 as 2.5-point favorites there in the season opener. The Falcons may be giving up a lot of points so far, but they have also played good offensive teams and still managed to win two of their first three games.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is fourth in the NFL in passing yards despite the fact that top wide receiver Julio Jones has only 10 catches for 188 yards, which ranks 37th in the league. Jones is due for a big game, especially without former Panthers cornerback Josh Norman around to cover him this time around.

Smart pick

This is a huge statement game for the Falcons, who used to have a strong home-field advantage and do not want to drop to 0-2 there. But they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games at the Georgia Dome, and the Panthers will be primed to bounce back in this spot off their disappointing loss to the Vikings.

Look for Carolina to win by more than a field goal and join Atlanta at the top of the standings heading into Week 5.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Falcons.

The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.

The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.