Denver Broncos vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be searching for an end to a two-game straight-up losing streak and their first SU win over Denver since 1999 when they play host to the Broncos on Sunday.

The Buccaneers dropped a 37-32 decision to the Los Angeles Rams as 3.5-point home chalk last weekend, extending their current SU and against the spread losing streak at home to three games. They have surrendered 37 or more points in three of their past four games overall.

The Broncos rolled to their eighth straight SU win last week, knocking off Cincinnati 29-17 as 3.5-point road underdogs. The reigning Super Bowl champions are also undefeated ATS in their past six games but have claimed just one ATS win over Tampa Bay since 1981.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.1-21.9 Buccaneers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Quarterback Trevor Siemian continued to silence the naysayers last weekend, throwing four touchdown passes in Denver's win over the Bengals while tallying a career-high 312 passing yards.

The Broncos defense has also dominated, limiting opponents to just 306 total yards per game this season, while surrendering just 17.25 points per game over its past eight outings.

Denver's pass defense has been particularly effective at shutting down opposing passers, who have failed to connect on a touchdown pass since the first quarter of the Broncos' 21-10 season-opening win over Carolina.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Second-year quarterback Jameis Winston bounced back nicely from a dismal Week 2 performance in Arizona when he tossed four picks in a 40-7 loss. Winston demonstrated resilience by throwing for three majors and a career-high 405 yards in last week's loss to the Rams.

The former Heisman Trophy winner has now tossed seven touchdown passes in his past four games, while his favorite target, receiver Mike Evans, has averaged over 100 yards so far this year.

The Buccaneers have surrendered a league-worst 101 total points this season but will look to build on last week's improved defense against the pass, holding the Rams to just 79 passing yards after halftime.

Smart pick

This contest is shaping up to be a clash between Tampa Bay's prolific young passer and Denver's stingy championship defense.

While Winston is quickly emerging as an elite quarterback, he faces a defense that has held passers to under 200 yards in its past four outings and held the Buccaneers to just 13 points in three of their past four meetings. Look for the Broncos to cover while posting a fourth straight win over Tampa Bay.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 3-0 SU in their last three games against the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the AFC.

The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.