Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Arizona Cardinals (1-2) have gotten off to a rough start in 2016 and hope to bounce back from a 33-18 road loss to the Buffalo Bills last week as 4.5-point favorites. In Week 4, they'll host the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) on Sunday as large home chalk.

The Rams have won their last two games, including a surprising 37-32 road victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 3.5-point underdogs. 

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 8.5-point favorites, with the total at 44, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-11.6, Cardinals (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Los Angeles has rebounded nicely from a 28-0 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in their season opener by beating the Seattle Seahawks and Buccaneers in consecutive weeks. The Rams used tough defense to stifle the Seahawks in a 9-3 win in Week 2, then followed that up with a strong offensive performance at Tampa Bay last Sunday.

Running back Todd Gurley powered the Los Angeles offense with 85 rushing yards on 27 carries and two touchdowns against the Bucs, and his team is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 as a dog of 9.5 points or more, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona has won six in a row after losing as a favorite in its previous game, and the team is 5-1 ATS in its past six meetings with the Rams. Quarterback Carson Palmer simply did not play well for the Cardinals at Buffalo, throwing four interceptions, totaling just 287 passing yards and completing 26 of his 50 attempts.

In Week 2 against Tampa Bay, Palmer threw for 304 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, as Arizona cruised to a 40-7 home victory, easily covering the spread as seven-point favorites. 

Smart pick

Coincidentally, both teams earned their last wins over the Bucs, with the Cardinals playing much better defense and only surrendering one touchdown. Arizona did have the benefit of playing at home, though, and that should be the difference in this NFC West matchup as well.

While Palmer struggled last week, he is still a much better player than his Los Angeles counterpart Case Keenum and will lead his team to a big win and cover.

Betting trends

The Rams are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Cardinals.

The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Cardinals.

The total has gone under in 12 of the Rams' last 15 games.

All NFL betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.