The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 95: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
The UFC heads to Brasilia, Brazil, for the second time Saturday, September 24 with a decent offering on Fox Sports 1.
The headlining matchup features one of the most compelling fighters in the sport, Brazil's Cris "Cyborg" Justino, in her second outing for the UFC. The most accomplished female fighter on the face of the planet will take on Sweden's unknown Lina Lansberg in a showcase fight that should hopefully lead to bigger-name opponents for Cyborg, assuming she emerges victorious.
The rest of the card is short on name value and long on action. Former bantamweight champion Renan Barao takes on Phillipe Nover in the co-main event, while a depressing heavyweight bout between Roy Nelson and Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva likewise graces the main card. The lightweight fight pitting Francisco Trinaldo and Paul Felder should be a a fascinating fight, though.
On the preliminary card, a variety of up-and-coming young fighters look to move up the ladder. Blue-chip lightweight Gilbert Burns headlines the Fox Sports 1 prelims against Michel Prazeres, while Japan's Michinori Tanaka takes on Rani Yahya in a crackerjack of a fight. On Fight Pass, Scotland's Stevie Ray looks to stamp himself as a lightweight to watch against Alan Patrick.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
1 of 8
Lightweights
Glaico Franca (13-4; 1-1 UFC) vs. Gregor Gillespie (7-0; 0-0 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4 winner Franca takes on debuting NCAA champion and four-time All-American wrestler Gillespie in a fantastic opening bout on Fight Pass. Franca won his debut, but James Vick was too much, too soon in his second fight last April. Gillespie has beaten good competition in the venerable, well-run Ring of Combat organization.
Franca is huge for the division at a thick 6'0" and boasts serious physical gifts. He's strong, quick and hits hard, and he puts those skills to good use with an aggressive, forward-moving game that relies on punching combinations to cover his takedown attempts. On the mat, he's slick and has a gift for getting to the back.
Gillespie, as you'd expect, is mostly a wrestler at this point. His shot is ultra-quick, and he finishes his shots, particularly single-leg takedowns, with consummate skill. On the downside, he often shoots from too far outside and relies on his quickness and technique, while he doesn't offer much on the feet. His control on the ground is still a bit loose and he tends to rinse and repeat with takedowns.
Prediction: This is a brutal matchup for the debuting Gillespie. Franca is big, athletic and well-rounded, and if Gillespie keeps shooting from too far away he'll get lit up. Franca works Gillespie over with strikes and then finishes on the mat in the third round.
Welterweights
Vicente Luque (9-5-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Hector Urbina (17-9-1; 1-1 UFC)
Brazil's Luque, a longtime member of the Blackzilians team, takes on the American Urbina in a potentially fun welterweight matchup. Luque has won two in a row since dropping his debut to Michael Graves, while Urbina lost a decision to Bartosz Fabinski last November.
Luque is a slick, smooth striker with a great arsenal of punch-kick combinations. He's a nasty grappler as well and has a particularly dangerous series of chokes from the front headlock. Urbina is aggressive and durable, but he's slow. Punching combinations carry him forward into takedowns and top control, and he too has a preference for the front headlock.
Prediction: Luque is a better athlete and has skill edges everywhere. He submits Urbina in the first round.
Lightweights
Alan Patrick (13-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Stevie Ray (19-5; 3-0 UFC)
Brazil's Patrick has been limited by injuries to just four fights in the last three years, the most recent of which was a win over Damien Brown in March. He takes on Scotland's Ray, a talented up-and-comer who has won three in a row since debuting last year.
Patrick is big for the division at 5'11" and has great physical tools to go along with legitimate skills everywhere, including powerful takedowns, wild kicks and a sharp top game, but the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. He makes puzzling in-fight decisions and often wins in spite of himself.
Ray is a smooth, fast striker with big power in his hands. The southpaw strings together potent punching combinations, moves well through the cage and works fast. His takedown defense has thus far been excellent, and he's dangerous when he gets on top.
Prediction: If Patrick can get this to the ground, Ray might be in trouble with the Brazilian's submission game. It's more likely this stays standing, where Ray's sharper striking game will piece up Patrick. Ray lands a knockout shot in the second round.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
2 of 8
Welterweights
Erick Silva (18-7, 1 NC; 6-6 UFC) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1-1; 0-0-1 UFC)
Former blue-chip prospect Silva takes on the up-and-coming Chagas in a barnburner of a matchup of Brazilian welterweights. The 23-year-old Chagas debuted in May and fought the experienced Sergio Moraes to a draw, while Silva has lost two in a row against Neil Magny and Nordine Taleb. The loser will probably be cut.
Chagas is an exceptionally quick athlete with big power in his strikes. He likes to set a long distance with front, round and spinning kicks and then blitz forward with punching combinations. Strong takedown defense keeps him standing, while on the mat he has a smooth submission game and a gift for getting the back.
Silva isn't quite the athlete he was in his younger years, but he's still quick and powerful. He has never developed technically, however, especially as a striker. Single kicks and power punches are still his bread and butter, and his footwork is rudimentary. He's a much better takedown artist and grappler than he is on the feet, especially when he can find his chokes in scrambles.
Prediction: It's hard to have much confidence in Silva after his last several performances. His talent is still there in flashes, but there's no consistency or seemingly much of a plan. Chagas is still a bit raw and could easily walk into a power shot, but he works faster and can match Silva's physicality. The younger fighter takes a decision.
Flyweights
Jussier Formiga (18-4; 4-3 UFC) vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-5; 4-3 UFC)
Flyweight veterans meet in a strong matchup. Formiga was once considered the best 125-pounder in the world, but he has never broken through in the UFC, and a loss to Henry Cejudo in his last outing snapped a three-fight winning streak. Ortiz has also struggled against the division's elite, and Wilson Reis beat him soundly in January. The winner will be a top flyweight essentially by default.
Formiga is a world-class grappler with good secondary skills. His right hand is potent, and he keeps it on a hair-trigger, particularly on the counter, and he has a nice mixture of clinch and shot takedowns. He's a wizard on the mat, particularly in scrambles, where he's a master of taking the back.
Ortiz can strike a bit at range, but he does his best work in scrambles with a mixture of wrestling and grappling. Consistent takedowns lead into floating control and exhausting exchanges on the ground that wear the opponent down over the course of the fight.
Prediction: This will resemble both fighters' bouts with Wilson Reis, where the scrambles came fast and furious. That kind of bout drastically favors Formiga, whose grappling skills are miles beyond the talented Ortiz. Formiga takes a decision with a strong possibility of a rear-naked choke finish.
Bantamweights
Rani Yahya (22-8, 1 NC; 7-2, 1 NC UFC) vs. Michinori Tanaka (11-1; 2-1 UFC)
Japanese prospect Tanaka takes on longtime UFC and WEC competitor Yahya in a big test for the up-and-comer. Yahya has won three in a row, including a submission win over Matthew Lopez in July, while Tanaka rebounded from the lone loss of his career by winning a split decision over Joe Soto in January.
The winner will find himself on the fringes of the top 15 in a rapidly evolving division.
Tanaka is a lightning-fast and well-rounded young fighter. He throws real heat with combinations of two and three punches on the feet, particularly as counters, and employs a great deal of lateral movement. A quick double-leg takedown and slick trips in the clinch make him a threat in the wrestling as well, while on the mat he controls well from the top and has a knack for getting to the back.
Yahya is an elite grappler, but the rest of his game has never caught up to his world-class skills on the mat. He's a willing but not particularly skilled or diverse striker, and his takedowns are more relentless than technical. On the ground, however, he's a wizard. Chokes from the top are a specialty, and he excels in scrambles.
Prediction: If this turns into the kind of scramble-filled grappling match Yahya prefers, it's his fight to lose. Tanaka has strong takedown defense and operates at long range, though, so any of those exchanges are likely to take place on his terms. The Japanese fighter takes a decision in a mild upset.
Lightweights
Gilbert Burns (11-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Michel Prazeres (20-2; 4-2 UFC)
Blue-chip prospect Burns returns to action against his countryman Prazeres in a strong matchup of Brazilian lightweights.
Burns entered the UFC with a great deal of hype, but a loss to Rashid Magomedov last November snapped his three-fight winning streak. He rebounded by defeating Lukasz Sajewski in July. Prazeres has won two in a row over low-level competition, the most recent over J.C. Cottrell, since dropping a decision to Kevin Lee.
Nobody will confuse Prazeres with an action fighter, but he's a competent, high-level journeyman with a stifling game.
The 5'6" spark plug has ridiculous strength. Hard punching combinations, particularly on the counter, and surprisingly sharp kicks make him a threat at range, but his strikes mostly carry him into the clinch. His body-lock takedowns are sharp and diverse, and he melds them with nice reactive-shot takedowns. On the mat he shows off a technical and controlling top game.
Burns, a longtime member of the Blackzilians team, is a smooth and explosive athlete. A BJJ world champion both in and out of the gi, Burns has grown into a well-rounded fighter with a potent, aggressive striking game and slick takedowns. On the mat he's lethal, particularly when he can get to the back. Armbars from that position are a specialty, but he can finish in a variety of ways depending on what's available.
Prediction: Prazeres can make this a difficult fight for the up-and-coming Burns, particularly if he can get on top. Despite Burns' grappling credentials, Prazeres' top game is hard for anyone in the division to handle.
That's less likely than Burns' finding himself in some early trouble but righting the ship with takedowns and control of his own. Burns submits an exhausted Prazeres in the third round.
Godofredo Pepey vs. Mike De La Torre
3 of 8
Featherweights
Godofredo Pepey (12-4; 4-4 UFC) vs. Mike De La Torre (14-5, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil runner-up Pepey takes on the American De La Torre in a decent featherweight scrap. Pepey had run off a three-fight winning streak but dropped a decision to Darren Elkins in July. De La Torre won a close decision over Yui Chul Nam last November.
Pepey is an all-or-nothing fighter who sells out for the finish. On the feet, he throws potent punches and heavy kicks. Flying knees are a particular specialty. He doesn't work at a good pace, though, and has a tendency to tire if pushed.
Wrestling is an afterthought. He's an abysmal takedown artist and has almost no ability to stuff his opponents' shots, but considering Pepey's skill on the mat, that isn't much of a concern. The Brazilian is happy to pull guard and work from his back with lethal chains of triangle chokes, armbars and sweeps, and when he gets on top he bombs away. The submission is a constant threat.
De La Torre is an active striker with good takedown defense. He throws real heat on the feet and is perfectly happy to hang in the pocket and brawl, but he has the skills to work at range for a while as well. Defense isn't his strong suit, though, and his ground game isn't much to write home about.
Betting Odds
Pepey -150, De La Torre +130
Prediction
Pepey is the more dangerous, dynamic and athletic fighter, and he can finish this at any time. He finds a submission in the first round.
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Thiago Santos vs. Eric Spicely
4 of 8
Middleweights
Thiago Santos (13-4; 5-3 UFC) vs. Eric Spicely (8-1; 0-1 UFC)
Brazilian veteran Santos returns to action against the American Spicely in a decent middleweight fight. Spicely debuted after a stint on TUF and fell victim to a Sam Alvey choke in July, while Santos had a four-fight winning streak snapped by a knockout loss to Gegard Mousasi at UFC 200.
Santos is an athletic, explosive and dangerous striker. Kicking is his forte, and he packs devastating power on both sides. It's hard to overstate how quick and lethal he is at long range, and he has the footwork and understanding of the space of the cage to enforce that game on his opponents. Hard punching combinations, especially on the counter, make his opponents think twice about pressuring.
The Brazilian is a strong clinch fighter as well. He throws vicious knees and uses the fence well to grind his opponents down. Strong takedown defense mostly keeps him standing, but he offers little on the mat aside from hard strikes on the rare occasions he finds himself on top.
Spicely isn't much of an athlete, but he's reasonably skilled. He has the right idea at range, moving his head while slinging punches to the head and body, but his striking game mostly serves to bring him into range to work single-leg takedowns or dive into the clinch. He throws bombs from the top and has a knack for finding submissions, especially in transitions.
Betting Odds
Santos -600, Spicely +450
Prediction
This matchup is tailor-made for Santos to destroy Spicely in entertaining fashion. The American will struggle with Santos' speed, doesn't have the takedown game to get him to the mat and has no answer at striking range. Santos finds the knockout in the first round.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Paul Felder
5 of 8
Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (20-4; 10-3 UFC) vs. Paul Felder (12-2; 4-2 UFC)
While he hasn't gotten much press, Brazil's Trinaldo has quietly compiled a six-fight winning streak that includes wins over a wide array of accomplished lightweights, including Ross Pearson and Chad Laprise. He takes on the American Felder, who is riding a two-fight streak of his own that consists of wins over Daron Cruickshank and Josh Burkman.
The winner will be well placed for a matchup with a top-15 opponent.
Felder is a striker by trade, and one with a serious degree of technical skill. He likes to move forward with smooth, precise footwork while launching the occasional round or spinning kick, and when his opponent commits, Felder drops a hard counterpunch or knee. While not a huge puncher, Felder does have some pop, and he's accurate enough to place his shots right on the chin.
There are some problems with this approach, though. First, Felder has a bad habit of waiting and waiting for precisely the right counterpunch. In hunting for the perfect shot, he misses the merely good shots that might create an opportunity for the knockout blow or score enough points to win rounds.
Second, Felder's defense is focused on avoiding head shots and setting up counters. That's a fine goal, but if he doesn't immediately throw back, Felder has lost that exchange. Moreover, his legs and body are still open, and he tends to eat a lot of damage to those areas from opponents who are happy to take what he gives them.
Clean, technical takedown defense mostly keeps Felder standing, and if placed on the mat he's difficult to hold there. He likes to counter level changes with knees and uppercuts, and he punishes opponents for their takedown attempts with elbows and punches. The occasional takedown adds some variety for him, and he's a functional grappler.
Trinaldo can do a bit of everything, but he's primarily a striker. The 38-year-old southpaw looks a bit awkward with his winging hooks. Make no mistake, though—he's a technically sound and skilled striker. His footwork is outstanding, and he gets great weight transfer into his shots, which makes them effortlessly powerful while still allowing him to push a quick pace.
He excels at using his potent left kick to manipulate his opponent's hand and head positioning, which allows him to carefully place those awkward-looking hooks and overhands from blind angles. It's a smart, technically sound game.
Trinaldo is proficient elsewhere as well. While not an active takedown artist, he can hit trips and double-leg shots, and on top he throws real power. The arm-triangle choke is his specialty. His takedown defense isn't great, but he's not easy to hold down.
Betting Odds
Trinaldo -130, Felder +110
Prediction
This is a close fight, particularly if Felder aggressively pursues takedowns. If it stays on the feet, though, Felder's bad habit of waiting suits him poorly against an active striker like Trinaldo who's happy to score points and win rounds. Trinaldo takes a decision.
Roy Nelson vs. Bigfoot Silva
6 of 8
Heavyweights
Roy Nelson (21-13; 8-9 UFC) vs. Bigfoot Silva (19-9-1; 3-6-1 UFC)
Veteran heavyweights at the end of the line meet in a decent pairing. Nelson has won just two of his last eight fights, including a decision loss to Derrick Lewis in his last outing in July. Silva has gone 1-5-1 in his last seven and suffered a 16-second knockout loss to Stefan Struve in May.
During his time in the UFC, Nelson's game has been all about the right hand, but he has added some new tools in the last several years. More precisely, he has gone back to the more varied approach he employed before he won The Ultimate Fighter in 2009, though with some improvements.
Takedowns and top control formed the core of Nelson's old game, and he has returned to the steady diet of shot and clinch takedowns that he once relied on. His squat, thick frame makes him a handful in the tie-ups, particularly against the fence, where he can use his head to drive his opponent into the cage. While not an overpowering wrestler, he's technical and relentless.
On the mat, Nelson is stifling. The longtime black belt is a strong top-control artist with a heavy base and a smooth array of guard passes, and rare for MMA, side control is his specialty. He's not a terribly potent ground striker, but he works at a great pace and never gives his opponent an opportunity to get back up.
At striking distance, Nelson has tried to add more tools to his crushing right hand. A more consistent jab and occasional low kicks give him more options, and his left hook is now a real threat. He's slow of foot, however, and is one of the worst defensive fighters in the entire sport, relying entirely on his ridiculous durability.
Silva has fallen drastically in the last several years. He never took a great punch, but he now seems unable to absorb any damage at all without going unconscious, which is a terrible weakness to have in a division full of punchers. Always a slow fighter, he's now painfully, glacially plodding.
From a skills perspective, Silva isn't bad. He fights long on the feet behind a slick kicking arsenal and straight punches that pack serious force, and he throws good volume. The real heart of his game is the clinch, where his strength and size give him great leverage. Hard knees and solid takedowns make him a handful on the inside.
Top control is Silva's best skill set. He has a strong base and is impossible to shift, particularly when he gets to the mount and begins raining down punches.
Betting Odds
Nelson -450, Silva +360
Prediction
Those odds are steep given Nelson's struggles in the last few years, but they accurately capture just how abysmal Silva's recent run has been. He has a path to victory based on sticking and moving at range and putting in work in the clinch, but if Nelson lands a clean shot it's probably over. The pick is Nelson by knockout in the first round.
Renan Barao vs. Phillipe Nover
7 of 8
Featherweights
Renan Barao (33-4, 1 NC; 8-3 UFC) vs. Phillipe Nover (11-6-1; 1-4 UFC)
Former bantamweight champion Barao takes on The Ultimate Fighter finalist Nover in a decent featherweight bout. Barao has fallen on hard times in the last two years, suffering two devastating knockout losses to T.J. Dillashaw along with a weight-cutting mishap. He's now at 145 pounds but dropped his debut against Jeremy Stephens after a promising first round.
For his part, Nover hasn't impressed in his return to the UFC, splitting a pair of fights, both of them split decisions. This is an opportunity for Barao to get back on track, hopefully in impressive fashion, but it's little more than that.
What went wrong with Renan Barao? The 29-year-old should be in the prime of his career. Every skill set he has is far better than the average fighter. He's a good athlete with real speed and some power. What's the problem?
Two things. First, defense: Barao is a powerhouse of an offensive striker who whirls punch-kick combinations at a rapid pace, but he has a bad habit of planting his feet and throwing in the pocket without moving his head when he feels pressured. In short bursts, he shows off excellent footwork in tight spaces and crisp head movement, but it comes and goes.
That inconsistency of defensive fundamentals means that opponents who can draw Barao into exchanges can land big, and it contributes to the second major problem: cardio. Barao likes to work fast, but to maintain that pace, he has to be the one in control of it. Opponents who can force him to exchange can drain his gas tank early.
What makes these problems worse is the fact that everybody knows about them now, so if Barao doesn't take measures to fix them, there will always be a blueprint for beating him. He made serious strides in that regard against Stephens but couldn't stick to them for the whole fight.
That's unfortunate, because on pure skills there are few better fighters in the UFC. His striking arsenal is diverse and effective, his takedown defense is flawless and he boasts a potent offensive wrestling arsenal. On the mat, he's a suffocating and dangerous top-control artist with a gorgeous passing game and a slick submission arsenal. Getting to the back is a specialty.
Nover has added new skills over the years but has never turned into the elite talent many thought he would eight years ago. He's quick, strong and athletic but has never put all his skills together into a coherent package.
At range, Nover has a nice kicking game, but he works at a dreadfully slow pace and doesn't have many tools for closing the distance. An explosive takedown game adds some variety, but he doesn't do a great job of setting up his shots.
Betting Odds
Barao -450, Nover +360
Prediction
This matchup is tailor-made for Barao to look good. Nover will be willing to fight him at long range, where Barao throws more volume and variety, while the Brazilian's stellar takedown defense means he'll control where the fight takes place. Barao takes a wide decision with strong possibility of a late submission finish.
Cris Cyborg vs. Lina Lansberg
8 of 8
Catchweight
Cris "Cyborg" Justino (16-1, 1 NC; 1-0 UFC) vs. Lina Lansberg (6-1; 0-0 UFC)
Cyborg, the best female fighter on the face of the planet, returns to action for her second fight under the UFC banner. She debuted in the promotion in May by blasting Leslie Smith in the first round, running her unbeaten streak to 11 years and 17 fights. The judges haven't been necessary since 2008, and in that time Cyborg has defeated practically every featherweight with any name value or talent.
Enter Sweden's Lansberg, a talented but unknown veteran of just seven fights. The only loss of her career came against blue-chip prospect and former Invicta title challenger Pannie Kianzad in Lansberg's first fight.
A victory for Lansberg would be one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, while Cyborg will presumably continue to be marketed as a special attraction if she wins.
Aggression is Cyborg's hallmark, but she is substantially more controlled now than she was in her younger years. Technical pressure is the basis for her game. She moves forward behind a punishing and consistent jab that measures the distance and pushes her opponent backward.
When that jab evokes a response, Cyborg dips into her real meat and potatoes: counterpunching combinations. She has a series of possible returns on a hair-trigger whenever her opponent throws at her, and she moves crushingly powerful hooks and straights between the head and body in sequences of two to four punches.
Hard kicks to the legs and body combine with her footwork to cut off the opponent's escape angles, leaving backward the only potential avenue for escape. When she hits the fence, Cyborg unloads yet more vicious combinations.
As clean and technical as she has become at range, Cyborg is even better in the clinch. She's monstrously strong and highly skilled, moving between collar ties and frames while unleashing vicious knees, punches and elbows. Trips and throws add yet another thing for her opponent to worry about, and she drops bombs from top position.
Strong takedown defense keeps Cyborg standing, though she isn't the most accomplished grappler if forced to her back.
Lansberg is a smooth, skilled striker with a deep background in muay thai. She works behind a crisp jab and throws quick, technical punching combinations that she mixes up between the head and body. Sharp, lightning-fast kicks add another thing for her opponents to worry about. Following those kicks with immediate punches is a specialty.
While she can stick and move and has the footwork to do effective work in open space, Lansberg is most comfortable when she's pressing forward aggressively.
Her punching combinations carry her forward into the clinch, her best area, where she goes to town. In the tie-ups, Lansberg is a monster. She uses head pressure to pin her opponent in place against the fence and then switches between collar ties, frames and underhooks, all the while starching the body with knees.
Slashing elbows slide into tiny openings, and Lansberg isn't afraid to break the clinch to create opportunities to land dangerous strikes.
It's hard to say much about the rest of Lansberg's game. She defends takedowns well in the clinch and does an excellent job of controlling distance, but she has yet to face a serious wrestler. In brief stretches, Lansberg seems competent from the top, but as with her wrestling skills she has yet to be tested.
Betting Odds
Cyborg -1250, Lansberg +800
Prediction
Lansberg presents an interesting challenge to the dominant Brazilian. On paper, she has the crisp, technical striking skills to give Cyborg fits at range, while Lansberg's strong clinch game could stifle her inside.
In practice, however, Lansberg is drastically outgunned. She's an aggressive, come-forward striker, and sticking and moving at distance runs counter to her established tendencies. Even if she out-lands Cyborg at range and does indeed have a skill edge in the clinch, Cyborg is so much more physical and powerful that she can lose rounds and still have a good shot at winning the fight with a single shot.
Lansberg will survive for a while, but eventually Cyborg's power will tell. The Brazilian knocks her out late in the second round.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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