San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Carolina Panthers covered 11 of 16 spreads last year on their way to the Super Bowl, but they came up empty in their season opener last week. Will Carolina fight a Super Bowl letdown this season? The Panthers will shoot for win No. 1 when they host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 13.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, per the Odds Shark computer: 25.4-16.0 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

Expected to bring up the rear in the NFC West again this season, San Francisco opened the Chip Kelly era in style last week, shutting out the Los Angeles Rams 28-0 and winning outright as a three-point home underdog.

The 49ers took a 7-0 lead on their second possession of the game, scoring on an 11-yard run by Carlos Hyde, and then extended that to 14-0 on a short scoring run by Shaun Draughn midway through the second quarter. They then put the game away in the fourth quarter by stopping a Rams incursion near the San Francisco red zone with an interception and then immediately turning that into another touchdown and a 21-0 lead.

On the day, San Francisco outgained Los Angeles 320-185, racking up 28 first downs while limiting the Rams to just 10. The 49ers defense also held Rams running back Todd Gurley to just 47 yards rushing on 17 carries.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina is looking to rebound after losing a Super Bowl rematch last Thursday against the Denver Broncos 21-20. The Panthers led the Broncos at the half 17-7, fell down 21-17 early in the fourth quarter, pulled to within a point on a Graham Gano field goal and had a chance to win at the buzzer. But Gano pulled a 50-yard attempt to the left, sending Carolina home with a tough defeat.

On the night, the Panthers outgained Denver 333-307, outrushed the Broncos 157-148 and held a 32:19-27:41 edge in time of possession. Usually, teams that win those three categories also win the game and cover the spread. It just didn't happen that night.

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton took some hits last week, including a couple to the head, but it looks like he'll be good to go for Sunday.

Smart pick

San Francisco was fortunate to open with the Rams last week because Los Angeles stinks. Now the 49ers have to fly three time zones into the future and play this game at 10 a.m. body-clock time. Meanwhile, Carolina must be chomping at the bit to get that first win of the season after what happened in Denver last week. The spread on this game might seem a bit imposing, but the Panthers are still the smart pick in this spot.

Betting trends

The 49ers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against the Panthers, per the Odds Shark NFL Database.

The Panthers are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games at home.

The Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against the NFC West division.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.