Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions will be without one of their key players while the Indianapolis Colts will be getting one back when they host the season opener between the teams as home favorites. The Lions will be missing retired wide receiver Calvin Johnson, and the Colts welcome back quarterback Andrew Luck after he missed nine games last year due to injuries.

Point spread: The Colts opened as six-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.5-15.6 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell is very familiar with Indianapolis after spending about a decade there. Caldwell was head coach of the Colts for three years after serving as the quarterbacks coach and assistant head coach, leading them to a Super Bowl appearance following the 2009 season.

Caldwell has worked hard to reshape the Lions and bring a new identity to the team since taking over in 2014. After a rough start, they closed out last year's campaign by winning six of their final eight games both straight up and against the spread, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

With Luck back under center, Indy's confidence should rise again in 2016. The Colts were one win away from the Super Bowl two years ago and victimized by the Deflategate scandal. Last season was extremely disappointing for everyone in the organization, with head coach Chuck Pagano betting on himself without a contract yet still returning because he believes in his players.

Indianapolis has won each of the past four meetings with Detroit SU to go along with a 3-1 mark ATS.

Smart pick

Despite Pagano's solid reputation as a good coach, the Colts are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight season openers. Ironically, some of that falls on Caldwell too since he was there right before Pagano.

Regardless, the total on this game is too high, especially with the Lions playing without Johnson. The under has cashed in five of Detroit's last six road games, and it's 6-1 in Indy's previous seven when favored by four points or less. Look for the under to cash again here in a surprisingly low-scoring affair.

Betting trends

The Lions are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Colts.

The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.

The Lions are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games as road underdogs.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.