Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons open their 2016 schedules on Sunday with a date at the Georgia Dome. Both these divisional rivals endured lengthy straight-up losing streaks in the second half of last season and will be eager to earn a Week 1 win and an early advantage in the race for the top spot in the NFC South standings. 

Point spread: The Falcons opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.7-15.3 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Led by rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers charged to a 6-6 SU start a year ago before losing their final four contests to finish 6-10. Despite the club's late-season swoon, Winston emerged as an elite NFL pivot, throwing for at least 295 yards in his final three games and developing chemistry with second-year receiver Mike Evans, who amassed 1,206 yards.

The Buccaneers' dynamic duo looked good in Tampa Bay's 30-13 preseason win over Cleveland, with Winston finding Evans on one of his two touchdown passes while piling up 259 passing yards.

The Buccaneers failed to cover in their final three road dates of 2015 but had previously rewarded bettors with regularity, posting against-the-spread wins in nine of 12 as road underdogs, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database. And Tampa Bay knocked off the Falcons 23-20 as eight-point road underdogs in Week 8 of last season.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons stormed out to a 6-1 SU start a year ago, matching their season win total from 2014. But the wheels would quickly come off Atlanta's season, as the club lost seven of its final nine, playing consistently sloppy football that featured 14 turnovers in its final six outings.

However, like Tampa Bay, the Falcons sport offensive weapons that can dominate a game, including Julio Jones, who led the NFL last season with 1,871 receiving yards. Atlanta's offensive line, already one of the league's best, also received a boost with the offseason acquisition of three-time Pro Bowl center Alex Mack.

Atlanta posted just one win over divisional rivals a year ago and averaged just 16.6 points per game over its past 10 outings. But it effectively shut down opposing offenses during the preseason, allowing just 15.5 points per game.

Smart pick

Neither team has dominated in head-to-head matchups in recent years, with each club posting four SU wins over their last eight meetings. Atlanta must also overcome its current 1-4 SU and ATS run at home and must contend with a rapidly maturing Buccaneers offense.

While Tampa Bay remains a work in progress, its recent success in Atlanta gives it a big confidence boost, making the Buccaneers an attractive pick to pull off the upset.

Betting trends

The favored team is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games in this matchup.

The Falcons are 0-5 SU in their last five games as favorite.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in September.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.