USA vs China: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Men's Basketball
After five exhibition games, the USA men's basketball team officially begins a gold-medal quest Saturday, opening its Olympic docket against China's national squad.
Since there are no secrets among friends, we won't mince words or try burying reality: The United States is supposed to win big—just like it did during the warm-up performances.
Team USA throttled China by 49 and 50 points, respectively, through two rehearsal matchups. That was with some of the nation's finest basketball brains playing at roughly quarter-speed. The script isn't supposed to change now when there are actual stakes.
Still, Carmelo Anthony, the old head on the United States' roster, cautions against this presumptive bravado. He was a member of the 2004 Olympic crew that bumbled and stumbled its way to a bronze necklace and, naturally, doesn't want this latest version of Team USA to coast.
"We want to win," he said of the opening tilt against China, per USA Today's Sam Amick. "We want to send a message to the rest of the world that we're here [on] business, we're focused on winning, and that's what we care about. We don't want to let nothing come in between that."
Will Team USA waltz its way past China? Or might China prove to be a more worthy foe than before?
When: Saturday, Aug. 6, at 6 p.m. ET
Where: Carioca Arena 1; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Live Stream: NBC.com
About Team USA's Super-Mega Death Squad...
It doesn't matter who head coach Mike Krzyzewski rolls out in his starting five. Any combination of players he fields, at any given point in any game, will have a quasi-All-Star-lineup feel to it. But the real draw for this team is the potential of its all-wing assortments.
Slotting Draymond Green at the 5 alongside Anthony, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and Paul George is a Golden State Warriors special on steroids. That lineup can switch everything, mixes enough playmaking with shot-making and boasts immeasurable range.
China, however, may not allow that unit, or even one like it, to receive extended spin. Half of its roster stands 6'10" or taller. Size is its lone advantage.
DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan are key to controlling the glass and deterring shots at the rim. Jordan is particularly important when looking at China's roster. He is the rare true center who can switch on everything, and the United States will need him to jump out on the perimeter whenever the 6'11" Yi Jianlian and 7'2" Zhou Qi start chucking threes.
Of course, Team USA out-rebounded China 87-47 in two exhibition matchups. The Americans can forfeit height for speed at any point, so there's a chance some version of a "Super-Mega Death Squad" sees the light of day—especially if the game is a rout from the onset.
Team USA's Passing Problem(?)
If there is one concern for Team USA, it's passing. Probably. Maybe.
Actually, we're not sure. As CBS Sports' James Herbert wrote:
"Look, I'm searching here. This team is stacked. Unless Coach K puts Jordan at point guard and tells Durant to play left-handed, there shouldn't be any problems. But there is a noticeable absence of pass-first players. In 2012, Team USA had Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Andre Iguodala. In 2008, they had Paul, Williams and Jason Kidd. This is different.
While [Kyrie] Irving and Kyle Lowry are two of the best point guards in the world, they don't play the same as Jason Kidd. Since LeBron [James] isn't in Rio to play point forward, either, there will be a team-wide emphasis on moving the ball more quickly than normal and avoid reverting to one-on-one play.
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Have you swallowed your one million metric tons of salt? Good. The point guard position does look thinner than it has in years past. Irving and Lowry are holding down the fort on their own. But the absence of positional depth is offset by a healthy collection of point forwards.
Though Durant, George and Green aren't James, they can probe the defense as offensive pilots. The same goes for Anthony, Butler and DeMar DeRozan. All of them have the vision to serve as makeshift floor generals in international play.
Playmaking by committee has worked out well for Team USA thus far. The Americans tallied 122 assists on 185 made baskets during the pre-Rio sparrings—an assist rate (65.9) that would have ranked third in the NBA for the 2015-16 regular season, according to NBA.com.
There will be times when Team USA relies almost solely upon one-on-one opportunities. And while that might be a (microscopic) problem against Australia, France or Spain, it's hardly concerning ahead of Saturday.
China doesn't house enough perimeter speed or explosion to disrupt one-on-one sets. The Chinese sent a bunch of double-teams at the United States' ball-handlers during exhibition play and were torched anyway. Attempts to jump passing lanes and force turnovers were similarly thwarted.
Even if Team USA's passing becomes a problem, it's not one on which China is built to capitalize.
Who To Watch On China
Jianlian would be the easy pick here. He was drafted sixth overall in the 2007 NBA draft and has won four CBA MVP awards since flaming out of the Association after the 2011-12 season. But Qi projects as the more fulfilling watch for China.
The Houston Rockets selected Qi, who is believed to be 20 years old, with the 43rd overall pick in this year's prospect pageant. He has a wingspan of nearly 7'8", according to DraftExpress, and, like Jianlian, isn't afraid to fire away from deep.
Qi tallied 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting to go along with two rebounds, two assists and one steal in China's second exhibition showcase against Team USA. He isn't especially athletic and won't be able to block many shots against the quicker Americans, but his movements on the court are more fluid than most of his basketball countrymen.
That's a big deal when you're listed at 7'2". Players Qi's size too often look awkward and unnatural when running up and down the floor or taking shots. Many are too long for their own good and struggle to square up with the basket in timely fashion.
Qi's smooth footwork and shooting stroke make him a stud by those standards. If there's one member of China that can show flashes of offensive brilliance against an engaged Team USA defense, it's him.
Prediction
Team USA has taken extraordinary measures to ensure it doesn't come off as overconfident, per The Undefeated's Jesse Washington. The team is quick to compliment China, and even quicker not to overestimate themselves.
But there is no contest to unearth here. Team USA deploys superior players from top to bottom and will win Saturday's affair with ease.
Any concerns about the ball or Coach K's troops playing at less than full bore are futile. We have already seen some of the most detached possible basketball from the Untied States, and that was still good enough to beat China by a combined 99 points in two games.
Keep your eyes peeled on Durant and Klay Thompson. China often loses sight of spot-up shooters when trying to suffocate ball-handlers, and both Team USA stars had modest-monster outings in each of the first two meetings. Anthony, for his part, followed their lead the second time around, dropping 20 points in under 15 minutes of action.
The real question isn't whether Team USA will win. It's whether there's another 50-point victory on the horizon.
Prediction: Team USA 111, China 60
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
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