Olympics Predictions 2016: Predicting Rio's Final Medal Count

For a while, it seemed like it was never coming. Perhaps it shouldn't have, given all the infrastructure problems.

But the 2016 Olympic Games are here, as group play in soccer got things underway in Rio before Friday's opening ceremony. There are any number of potential storylines we could delve into. The infrastructure of these games can be best described as lacking, athletes in teams sports have used any and all excuses to avoid making the trip and you might get sick if you ingest less than an ounce of water.

On the bright side: SPORTS! And lots of them. Basketball, golf, swimming, wrestling, diving, archery, badminton—it's all here. There are even things on trampolines. And table tennis. And something called equestrian dressage, which I had totally heard of before just now and am not currently Wikipediaing at all. Pinky promise.

All of these things are going to take place over the next few weeks, and it's impossible to keep track of it all. Most people will wind up watching a majority of the Olympics through the daily medal count. 

Here is where the fun comes in: Let's try to mentally suss out all of these events and guess the final medal count. This is a zero-win exercise—one that is most likely to make me look more foolish than usual. But life is nothing without severe humiliation, so here are my predictions for how the top five countries will fare in Rio.

Medal Count Projection

Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
United States	40	39	31	110
China	39	30	20	89
Great Britain	23	14	29	66
Germany	15	20	16	51
Russia	14	14	20	48

Predictions (With a Better Chance of Coming True)

The United States Will Win Gold in Men's Basketball—Easily

The 2015-16 All-NBA first team was comprised of five United States-born players. Only one of them—the most controversial one, DeAndre Jordan—is making the trip to Rio. The only players leftover from the 2012 gold-medal team are Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant, with Melo returning to possibly become the most decorated Olympic basketball player ever.

Spoiler alert: he will.

Despite (by my count) having six of the NBA's 10 best players decline an invite, the United States roster is still stacked. Literally the 11 best players in this tournament are all Americans. If it weren't for Harrison Barnes' presence, it'd be a dirty dozen. (Barnes would rank somewhere between Nos. 15-17 if we're being honest—still not all that bad.)

Even the biggest threats to the United States' run are weaker in 2016. Spain, the only team that can compete within the same stratosphere, is without its best player (Marc Gasol). Argentina, which prevented the U.S. from winning gold in 2004, has seen its roster age out of contention. There are a number of up-and-coming countries with promising young players, but the U.S. should win every game by 20 or more points.

If you took an All-Star team of every other country's talent participating in Rio, then we might have a competitive game. As it stands, this should be a cakewalk. At least we get FIBA Carmelo out of the deal.

Russia Will Still Be Good (But Not as Good)

The banning of Russian athletes has become a secondary story behind all the structural problems in Rio, but it remains a pervasive storyline. An investigation found a widespread doping ring reaching the highest positions in Russian athletics, which has resulted in the banishment of at least 110 athletes.

Gone are almost the entire track-and-field, rowing and weightlifting teams. It's a proverbial bloodbath that has opened the door for other countries to win medals and wiped out Russia's chance at competing with the United States and China.

Still, don't suddenly think Russia is going to be shut out. There are still 272 Russian athletes who were approved to compete in these Games. Natalia Ishchenko and Svetlana Romashina are the overwhelming favorites to repeat their gold in synchronized swimming. Russia has won that event in every Olympics since 2000.

Yana Kudryavtseva is going to be a force to be reckoned with in rhythmic gymnastics, and Islambek Albiev was the 2008 gold winner in Greco-Roman wrestling. The Russian medal count will almost certainly pale in comparison to previous years—I've shaved off more than 30 medals from the 2012 count—but they're still very likely to wind up in the top five.

The United States and China Rule the World

Because duh. That's what always happens.