The Complete Guide to UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
The world's largest MMA promotion heads to Atlanta this Saturday, July 30, for the UFC 201 card on pay-per-view.
In the main event, welterweight kingpin Robbie Lawler defends his belt for the third time against teammate Tyron Woodley in a crackerjack of a main event. Lawler's rise from talented journeyman to three-time defending champion has been one of the best stories of the last several years in MMA, and a win here would go a long way toward cementing him as one of the all-time greats.
The co-main event was originally scheduled to be a flyweight title fight between dominant champion Demetrious Johnson and Wilson Reis, but an injury to Johnson several weeks ago scrapped that plan.
Instead, former strawweight title challenger Rose Namajunas will take on Poland's Karolina Kowalkiewicz in what seems to be a top-contender matchup. This should be an absolute barnburner of a fight between two of the division's rising talents.
Potentially fun but not terribly relevant bouts between Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown and Francisco Rivera and Erik Perez make up the third and fourth fights on the main card, but the opener, a flyweight scrap between Ian McCall and Justin Scoggins, has the makings of a great matchup.
The rest of the card is, to put it mildly, thin. Jorge Masvidal and Ross Pearson meet in a welterweight bout on Fox Sports 2, and a good matchup of talented young fighters in Bojan Velickovic and Michael Graves headlines the Fight Pass portion, but that's about it.
Let's take a look at each individual matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Lightweights
Cesar Arzamendia (7-2; 0-1 UFC) vs. Damien Brown (15-9; 0-1 UFC)
Bottom-tier lightweights open the show on Fight Pass. Arzamendia was a competitor on The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 and dropped his UFC debut to Marco Reyes last November. Brown came in on short notice to face Alan Patrick in March and also came up short. The loser will undoubtedly receive his walking papers.
Arzamendia is a decorated striker with high-level experience as a kickboxer, and it shows in his smooth punch-kick combinations and slick clinch game. He's a better wrestler than you'd expect, too. The problem is his inability to take a punch. Brown can do a bit of everything but does his best work controlling his opponent from top position.
Prediction: Arzamendia is a vastly superior striker and should be able to stuff the takedowns. He takes a decision.
Flyweights
Ryan Benoit (8-4; 1-2 UFC) vs. Fredy Serrano (3-0; 2-0 UFC)
Low-level flyweights meet in a potentially entertaining fight. Benoit has sandwiched losses to Josh Sampo and Ben Nguyen around his lone UFC win—a crushing come-from-behind knockout victory over Sergio Pettis. Serrano, a veteran of the first season of TUF: Latin America, has won both of his UFC outings, defeating Yao Zhikui last November.
Benoit is a puncher with a tremendous left hook and not much else. He has some pop in his kicks and a basic defensive wrestling game as well, but if forced to do anything other than strike, he looks lost. Serrano, an outstanding athlete, was a decorated wrestler on the international level and has some explosive striking skills to boot.
Prediction: This is a close fight. Benoit is a more skilled and powerful striker, but Serrano is obviously the better wrestler. Without any real confidence, the pick is Serrano by decision.
Welterweights
Michael Graves (6-0; 2-0 UFC) vs. Bojan Velickovic (14-3; 1-0 UFC)
Talented young welterweights meet in the Fight Pass headliner. Graves, an American Top Team product and veteran of TUF 21, has won both his outings in the UFC, defeating Vicente Luque first and then Randy Brown. Serbia's Velickovic has fought excellent competition during his career, losing a regional fight to UFC middleweight Krzysztof Jotko several years ago, and defeating Alessio Di Chirico in his UFC debut in April.
Graves is an explosive and athletic young fighter who blends his skills together nicely. Strikes lead into takedowns or clinch entries, and once there, he hits gorgeous trips, throws and authoritative slams. On the mat, he excels in scrambles and especially at getting to the back.
Velickovic is a smooth and technical southpaw striker who complements his work on the feet with dangerous submissions, though he isn't the strongest wrestler.
Prediction: Velickovic will have a substantial size advantage and a real edge if he can keep this standing, but it's more likely Graves will be able to get inside and find takedowns. Graves wins a fun, back-and-forth decision.
The Fox Sports 2 Prelims
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Flyweights
Wilson Reis (20-6; 4-2 UFC) vs. Hector Sandoval (12-2; 0-0 UFC)
Reis was originally scheduled to face flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson in the co-main event, but an injury to Johnson and then the removal of his replacement, Sean Santella, has dropped the Brazilian into a preliminary bout with the debuting American, Sandoval.
The debutant has beaten decent competition on the regional scene and lost only to UFC competitors Willie Gates and Ulysses Gomez. Reis dropped a fight to Jussier Formiga in May 2015 but rebounded with a win over Dustin Ortiz to set up his title shot.
Sandoval, a product of Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, is a tank of a fighter. He blends potent head-body punching combinations with slick takedowns and does punishing work on the mat, especially from the front headlock.
Reis, a southpaw, is a functional striker with a powerful left kick and solid punching combinations. He's an active wrestler as well with nice chains of singles to body locks. It's on the mat, though, that Reis really shines. He's an exceptional scrambler and smooth guard-passer with a nose for the submission from the top.
Prediction: Despite Sandoval coming in on short notice, this is a tough matchup for Reis. Sandoval has strong takedown defense, throws an excellent volume of strikes and hits with real power. The difference should be the Brazilian's gas tank, especially since Sandoval is coming in on short notice. Reis wins a decision.
Heavyweights
Anthony Hamilton (14-5; 2-3 UFC) vs. Damian Grabowski (20-3; 0-1 UFC)
Low-level heavyweights battle to keep their spot on the UFC roster. Hamilton dropped a decision to Shamil Abdurakhimov, while Grabowski, a veteran of the European scene, fell to the rising Derrick Lewis in his UFC debut last February.
Hamilton can do a bit of everything, with a decent striking arsenal backed up by effective takedowns and defensive wrestling along with a punishing top game. He's a mess defensively, though, and doesn't take a great punch. Grabowski is mostly a grappler with a great top game, though he's solid in the clinch as well.
Prediction: Hamilton is the better wrestler and striker. He wins by decision.
Welterweights
Ross Pearson (19-11, 1 N/C; 11-8, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Jorge Masvidal (29-11; 6-4 UFC)
Veteran fighters meet in an outstanding scrap. Masvidal's recent record looks worse than it is, as all three of his losses—to Al Iaquinta, Benson Henderson and Lorenz Larkin—in his current 1-3 stretch have been by close split decisions. Pearson has alternated wins and losses in his last eight, following a win over Chad Laprise with a loss to Will Brooks just three weeks ago.
Both fighters badly need wins to stay relevant, though as skilled and well-known veterans, they're unlikely to be cut with a loss.
Pearson is a striker first and foremost. He owns a crisp jab he uses to measure distance and then commits to power punches as counters when his opponent throws at him while mixing in the occasional kick. His strong defensive wrestling keeps him standing.
Masvidal can do it all, though he generally prefers to strike. His jab is outstanding, and he mixes up a sharp right hand with the occasional kick and counter left hook. Smooth takedowns complement his striking skills, while on the mat he can find the occasional submission but mostly controls. If there's a knock on his game, it's a lack of urgency: He's often content to cruise when he feels like he's winning.
Prediction: Masvidal has a substantial size advantage, and with his wrestling and grappling skills, he should have more options. He takes a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Ed Herman (23-11, 1 N/C; 10-7, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Nikita Krylov (20-4; 5-2 UFC)
The veteran Herman takes on 24-year-old Ukrainian Krylov in an excellent light heavyweight matchup. Herman has alternated wins and losses in his last few fights, losing to rising contender Derek Brunson in January 2015 and then defeating Tim Boetsch a year later. Krylov has now won four in a row, with all of them inside the distance. Francimar Barroso and Marcos Rogerio de Lima were his most recent victims.
Herman is a gatekeeper, and Krylov is a legitimate talent in a division that badly needs new blood. If he passes this test, Krylov will be ready for an elite opponent.
The American is slow and plodding but durable and highly skilled everywhere. Crisp jabs and hard counterpunches are his bread and butter at range, but he does his best work in the clinch with barrages of knees, uppercuts and elbows. On the mat, he's aggressive and dangerous and has the wrestling skills to either take it there or keep it standing.
Krylov is all aggression. He likes to come forward behind front kicks and punching combinations that carry him from orthodox to southpaw in order to cover distance faster. Against the fence, he likes to clinch and wear his opponent down while looking for opportunities to scramble to a dominant position. Opportunistic submissions, especially the rear-naked choke, are his specialty.
Prediction: This is a close fight. Krylov has the advantage in volume and power at range, while Herman's better in the clinch, as a wrestler and probably on the mat. Still, the big difference here is athleticism and pace, and that should win it for Krylov. The Ukrainian finds the knockout in the second round.
Ian McCall vs. Justin Scoggins
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Flyweights
Ian McCall (13-5-1; 2-3-1 UFC) vs. Justin Scoggins (11-2; 4-2 UFC)
South Carolina's Scoggins takes on California's McCall in a classic prospect-veteran matchup at 125 pounds. McCall was one of the flyweight division's top fighters when it came into being back in 2012, but he began his UFC career with an 0-2-1 stretch. While he followed that with a two-fight winning streak, a loss to John Lineker dropped him back down, and he has been out with injuries for the last 18 months.
Scoggins came into the UFC as a raw but electric prospect, and while he struggled with a two-fight losing streak against Dustin Ortiz and John Moraga, he has since rebounded with a pair of wins.
If Scoggins beats McCall, he's ready for the division's upper echelons, while McCall would stave off his descent into divisional irrelevance.
McCall is a well-rounded and technically sound fighter with skills in every phase. On the feet, he's tricky and unorthodox. Constant circular movement and stance switches between orthodox and southpaw make him difficult to track down and provide him with angles from which to land a steady barrage of kicks and punching combinations, with all of them delivered with smooth technique.
While he's capable of winning striking matchups, wrestling is still McCall's wheelhouse. He shoots a lovely double-leg takedown, especially as a counter to his opponent's forward movement, and in general has excellent timing and a sense for how to disguise his entries. On the defensive side, McCall is almost impossible to get to the mat.
From top position, McCall is mostly content to work a control game and land a few strikes while occasionally passing to dominant positions. He's strong and technical from the top, and his grappling serves as a nice complement to his in-and-out striking game.
Scoggins is a representative of MMA's current trend toward karate-style striking. The South Carolinian fights even longer than his 5'7" frame would suggest, using a long, side-on stance that emphasizes his height and reach. He stays light on his feet, constantly bouncing, circling and cutting angles as he switches stances and moves efficiently through the cage.
The core of Scoggins' game rests on setting and then manipulating a long distance between him and his opponent. To do this, he fires off a constant barrage of front-leg side kicks and sharp jabs that keep his opponent on the outside. This either allows him to find angles for blitzing combinations or forces his opponent to come forward, opening up a variety of different counters.
Scoggins excels at blending his punches and kicks in creative ways. While not a particularly powerful striker, he hides his kicks behind punches and vice versa, making it difficult to tell what's coming.
If Scoggins were just a striker, he'd be dangerous enough, but he also blends that arsenal with an effective wrestling game. The timing and control of the distance that make him a dangerous counterpuncher also create opportunities for reactive takedowns as his opponent comes forward, and he's a slick, effective defensive wrestler to boot.
Those takedowns mostly serve as a change of pace—the way a muay thai fighter uses dumps and throws in the clinch to break the rhythm. Scoggins rarely looks to spend extended periods on the ground, instead either standing up or looking for opportunities to scramble to the back.
Betting Odds
Scoggins -245 (bet $245 to win $100), McCall +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Prediction
Despite McCall's experience and well-rounded game, the balance of the matchup favors Scoggins. McCall isn't much of a pressure fighter, and he'll get stuck on the outside—Scoggins' preferred distance—far too easily. Moreover, Scoggins is a good-enough wrestler to keep this standing, precisely where he wants it. Scoggins takes a fun but clear decision.
Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez
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Bantamweights
Francisco Rivera (11-6, 1 N/C; 4-5, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Erik Perez (15-6; 5-2 UFC)
Mexico's Perez takes on the American Rivera in an excellent bantamweight matchup. Rivera is on a brutal 1-4 stretch, but it looks worse than it actually is, as the judges robbed him in a decision loss to Brad Pickett and he suffered a submission loss to Urijah Faber after a serious eye-poke. Still, he badly needs a win against Perez, who rebounded from a loss to Bryan Caraway by defeating Taylor Lapilus last November.
Rivera is a powerful puncher who also possesses real craft. He scores points and probes his opponent's defenses with a sharp jab and hard low kicks, and when his opponent commits to an attack, Rivera drops vicious counterpunches. Back-stepping straight rights and left hooks are his specialty, and he excels at moving them around and through his opponent's guard. All of them pack fight-ending power.
Pace is a strong suit for Rivera. He works fast and knows how to keep his opponent just far enough outside that he can step in to land but they can't, and he constantly reinforces that with his jab and low kicks. Unlike many punchers, Rivera is rarely there to be hit, though when he exchanges he's not a defensive mastermind.
The occasional takedown adds some variety for Rivera when he chooses to go that route, and his defensive wrestling skills are generally strong enough to keep him standing. He offers little on the mat aside from hard ground strikes, though, especially from the bottom.
Perez is an aggressive and dangerous fighter. He throws hard punching combinations on the feet and melds them with cracking kicks, generally preferring to move forward and pressure his opponent. All of his shots carry substantial power.
While striking is his wheelhouse, Perez melds those strikes with a technically sound takedown game. He shoots nice singles and doubles and has a gift for timing them and blending them with his strikes.
On the mat, Perez knows how to control from top position, land strikes and pass the guard. He's an aggressive submission artist and has a particular knack for getting to the back.
Betting Odds
Perez -125, Rivera +105
Prediction
While the odds list Perez as a slight favorite, the matchup favors Rivera. Perez isn't the kind of takedown artist or grappler who has troubled Rivera in the past, and on the feet Rivera is the harder puncher and a technical match for the Mexican. Rivera knocks him out in the second round.
Jake Ellenberger vs. Matt Brown
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Welterweights
Jake Ellenberger (30-11; 9-7 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (20-14; 13-8 UFC)
Welterweight veterans meet with their futures on the line. Both Brown and Ellenberger are in the midst of rough patches in their long and productive careers; Ellenberger is just 1-5 in his last six outings, while Brown is 1-3.
Ellenberger's lone win in that stretch came over a shot Josh Koscheck, and since then he has lost by knockout to Stephen Thompson and by decision to Tarec Saffiedine. Three of the five losses have come inside the distance. Brown dropped decisions to Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks, rebounded with a win over Tim Means and then fell by submission to Demian Maia.
Both fighters desperately need a win here. Ellenberger might even be cut with a loss, while Brown needs a victory to stay relevant.
It's hard to say exactly what went wrong for Ellenberger, but it's impossible to deny that there's something broken. His body might be through after 41 professional fights, or perhaps his confidence just isn't there anymore. Either way, the effects have been devastating.
At his best, Ellenberger is an incredible athlete blessed with exceptional explosiveness and power. He leaps forward into brutal punching combinations, flicks sharp low kicks and can hit smooth counter combinations when his opponent comes back at him.
At his worst, though, Ellenberger stares at his opponent for long stretches without throwing strikes, even when the opportunity presents itself. This is the crux of Ellenberger's issues: He can't bring himself to pull the trigger.
Wrestling provides a strong secondary skill set for Ellenberger. He shoots a quick double-leg takedown and finishes it with real authority, while defensively he's nearly impossible to get to the mat. On top, Ellenberger drops bombing ground strikes and controls well, though he's not much of a submission threat.
Stamina isn't Ellenberger's strong suit, and his preference for explosive strikes and takedowns means that he burns through his gas tank quickly.
Brown is a pressure fighter by nature, and everything he does is based around the idea of pushing his opponent toward the fence. He uses the threat of round kicks to cut off his opponent's attempts to circle away and moves forward behind a potent right hand. All of these shots carry legitimate power.
When he gets his opponent to the fence, Brown goes to work in the clinch. There are few better in all of MMA at melding collar ties, frames, overhooks and underhooks into a seamless and dynamic game that allows him to land a steady stream of punches, knees and especially elbows. Brown mixes his strikes with Thai-style trips and throws to keep his opponent guessing.
Aside from the work in the clinch, wrestling isn't Brown's strongest suit. He's a solid defensive wrestler but has struggled to keep more accomplished takedown artists from working him to the mat. If he can get to top position, he's a devastating ground striker and has a sneaky guillotine as well. On his back, though, Brown has a bad habit of panicking and giving up his neck or his back as he tries to scramble to his feet.
Durability and cardio are important intangibles for Brown. He doesn't get tired, and it's nearly impossible to hurt him, which means he'll be there well into the later rounds.
Betting Odds
Brown -325, Ellenberger +265
Prediction
While Brown has been on a difficult run, Ellenberger looks like he's done as a high-level fighter. Moreover, the basic outlines of the matchup favor Brown: He does his best work moving forward, and Ellenberger hasn't shown much as a counterpuncher in recent years. Finally, Brown's endless stamina contrasts with Ellenberger's limited gas tank.
This is a recipe for a beating. Brown finishes Ellenberger with strikes late in the second round.
Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
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Strawweights
Rose Namajunas (5-2; 3-1 UFC) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0; 2-0 UFC)
Phenom talent Rose Namajunas hasn't had an easy road back to the top. She was pegged for greatness coming off Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter and was slated to face Carla Esparza for the inaugural strawweight title in December 2014. Her inexperience showed against her older opponent, though, and she suffered a loss that showed just how much she still had left to learn.
Since then, Namajunas has grown dramatically. She has run off three wins in a row against serious competition, submitting current Invicta FC champion Angela Hill, dominating Paige VanZant before finishing her in the fifth round and finally taking a close decision from nemesis Tecia Torres.
She'll face Poland's Karolina Kowalkiewicz, a talented and promising competitor in her own right. The 30-year-old is undefeated and took wide decisions in each of her first two UFC outings, defeating Randa Markos and then Heather Clark by decision.
The winner will have an excellent claim on a title shot in a rapidly developing division.
Trainer Trevor Wittman has accomplished a minor miracle in taming the wild energy that defined Namajunas' early career. She's a marvelous athlete who glides through the cage with exceptional speed and hits with surprising power. Her off-the-charts aggression too easily carried her out of control, however, and put her in bad positions.
Wittman has retrained Namajunas to focus on fundamentals, a mantra he repeats ad nauseam throughout her fights. In practice, that translates into Namajunas fighting as a stick-and-move striker on the outside. She works behind a consistent and punishing jab and then picks her spots to plant her feet and unleash a vicious straight right or left hook.
Round, front and side kicks add another layer of length for her opponent to fight through to get inside, and this allows Namajunas to avoid the pocket and therefore the instincts that too easily lead her into a brawl. Namajunas can still exchange, and does so now with better head movement and defense in the pocket, but it's merely one facet of her game rather than her go-to tendency.
If she can't stay outside, Namajunas is happy to move into the clinch, where her 5'5" height and long limbs give her tremendous leverage. She has a vicious double-collar tie and sharp knees, and she combines her strikes with a slick array of body-lock trips and throws.
Early in her career, Namajunas' takedown defense was literally nonexistent, but it's now progressed into serviceable territory. She relied far too heavily on her guard, and while it was lethally dangerous, she also gave away rounds looking for the submission. That's no longer the case.
From top position, Namajunas is a monster. She passes with ease, controls position with a heavy base, lands brutal ground strikes with good posture and is constantly hunting for the submission. Transitions are a strong suit and she excels in scrambles, but she's also proficient in extended grappling scenarios.
Kowalkiewicz is a striker by trade and a good, if idiosyncratic, one. Her game is all about circular movement and constant flurries of punches, none of which are particularly powerful but which come at such a rapid rate the opponent can't keep up.
It's hard to overstate how much Kowalkiewicz throws. As long as she's within range of her opponent, she's throwing strikes, sneaking in head-body combinations in the pocket, at the fringes of range and as she enters and exits the clinch. Kowalkiewicz is hittable, but that tends to work against her opponents as she baits them into fighting at her preferred pace and range.
If she can't keep the fight at striking distance, Kowalkiewicz is happy to slide into the clinch. Despite her 5'3" frame and relative lack of size, she's surprisingly strong and keeps the same pace of strikes in the tie-ups as she does at range. Knees, elbows and short punches fly constantly at her opponent's face.
Excellent takedown defense keeps Kowalkiewicz on her feet, both against shot takedowns and in the clinch. We know less about her ground game, though she seems perfectly competent.
Betting Odds
Namajunas -230, Kowalkiewicz +190
Prediction
More so than any other in her recent run, this fight will require Namajunas to control her instincts and not allow herself to be drawn into a quick-paced brawl. While she has the power and the ability to finish Kowalkiewicz in that kind of fight and in general possesses a massive physical advantage, it's simply not her best path to a win.
The smarter game plan involves Namajunas sticking Kowalkiewicz on the end of her jab and straight right, staying out of the Pole's range and hitting takedowns if possible without forcing the shot. This will require a serious measure of self-control, but she should be able to do it. Namajunas takes a decision.
Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
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Welterweight Championship
Robbie Lawler (27-10, 1 N/C; 12-4 UFC) vs. Tyron Woodley (15-3; 5-2 UFC)
Unlikely champion Lawler makes the third defense of his title against sometime-teammate Woodley in an excellent welterweight championship scrap.
It has taken Woodley years to reach the top of the division, and his career has largely seemed to consist of a step or two forward before taking one back. He debuted in the UFC with a huge knockout of Jay Hieron but dropped a decision to Jake Shields; he won two more but then fell to Rory MacDonald; and finally he won two more, but a combination of injuries and bad luck led him to a long layoff before this fight.
Lawler is the poster child for blooming late. He was the hottest of hot prospects in 2003 but never really got over the hump and spent years wandering through EliteXC and Strikeforce as a middleweight. His return to welterweight has been nothing short of remarkable, compiling an 8-1 record and defending his title twice after winning it in an epic rematch with Johny Hendricks.
The last defense was a contentious win over Carlos Condit, though, and age might finally be catching up with the seemingly ageless Lawler.
Lawler has made a virtue of his experience, and his game relies on the intangibles that only hours in the cage can provide. Despite his age, he remains an excellent athlete with great speed and crushing power.
The southpaw moves efficiently through the space of the cage to find subtle angles from which to land his shots. Tight footwork is the key to Lawler's game, and it allows him to pick and choose those angles, distance and where in the cage the fight will take place, all while expending a minimum of energy.
In a strategic sense, he's willing to give away rounds to set up his knockout shots later in the fight and conserve his energy; Lawler rarely throws unless he's sure he can land. This is a thoughtful, crafty game that requires an unbelievable amount of skill and patience to play. It's also risky, because the judges don't necessarily reward that patience.
There's nothing flashy about Lawler's game. At his best, he works behind a punishing and crafty jab that measures the distance and sets the rhythm for the rest of his strikes. When he has established that rhythm and timing, he breaks it with a full-speed straight left or right hook that surprises his opponent with its quickness and power.
Counters are a specialty for Lawler. He excels at moving his head or blocking just enough to take the sting off his opponent's punches and then returning fire in the pocket, but he also loves to time his opponent and throw at the same time as he comes in.
When the mood strikes, Lawler shows off a potent kicking game, mixing the threat of his devastating straight left with a round kick to the head and body. The kicks come and go, though, and he could stand to throw them more often.
In the clinch, Lawler can be ferocious. His barrages of knees to the body are vicious, and he sneaks in sharp elbows. On the breaks, he has a gift for landing hard punches while his opponent is distracted. He's not perfect, though, and can be hurt or controlled if stuck there for long periods.
Extraordinary takedown defense powers Lawler's striking game. It's not an exaggeration to say the defensive wrestling Lawler showed against Hendricks the second time and MacDonald was some of the best in the history of the sport.
Lawler doesn't just defend the takedown with a lightning-fast sprawl or great balance against the fence; he punishes his opponent for trying, landing short punches and knees after he stuffs the shot or slamming elbows into his opponent's head against the cage. By doing so, Lawler ensures the judges know he won the exchange even though he was the defender.
While he shoots a lovely double, Lawler rarely looks for takedowns. On the mat, Lawler is competent but doesn't spend much time there. He can control from top position and defend from his back, but mostly he looks to catch a breather before returning to striking.
Woodley is an extraordinary athlete blessed with off-the-charts speed, explosiveness and raw power. The All-American wrestler has turned into a competent and dangerous striker, and the combination of that takedown acumen and limited but effective skill on the feet makes him a handful.
The right hand and right kick are Woodley's bread and butter. In fact, he relies on strikes from his right side to the exclusion of almost everything else. He throws the occasional jab and a unicorn of a left hook, but for all intents and purposes he's a one-handed fighter.
That doesn't mean he's ineffective. Woodley understands angles and circular movement and has gorgeous timing for picking his spots to plant his feet and throw or explode forward into a punishing shot. When he finds his rhythm, he mixes it up to the head and body and switches between overhands, hooks, straights and uppercuts.
The mixture of the right hand with the right kick is effective. Opponents move their hands and head to block or slip the right hand, and that creates openings for the kick to the legs, body or head.
While all of that works, particularly because it's driven by Woodley's extraordinary speed and power, it's still limited and predictable.
No matter how fast a fighter is, it's only a matter of time before the opponent adjusts to that speed with timing and control of distance, and Woodley is particularly susceptible to getting stuck on the end of his opponent's reach or losing control of where he is in the cage. While he's accurate and powerful, Woodley doesn't throw much volume, so unless he lands a big shot, he's always at risk of dropping rounds.
The clinch is a strong secondary area for Woodley. He's not especially dangerous there, but his strength and technique allow him to bully opponents against the cage and control them while catching a breather and wearing his opponent down.
As a wrestler, Woodley remains excellent. His takedown defense is nearly impenetrable unless tired and thrown off by his opponent's striking. Offensively, he shoots lovely singles and doubles that he finishes with explosive, authoritative force and chains together nicely. His front headlock is especially strong.
On the ground, Woodley can land some hard shots from the top and is a suffocating control artist. He isn't much of a threat to pass, though, and he doesn't have much of a submission game to speak of.
Betting Odds
Lawler -210, Woodley +175
Prediction
There are a few X-factors here to bear in mind.
First, at 34 years old, Lawler isn't getting any younger, and all but one of his last six fights have been five-round wars. It's only a matter of time before he starts to decline.
Second, Woodley has been out of action for 18 months, though he did a full camp before his scheduled fight with Hendricks was canceled last October. Ring rust could be a real factor.
Finally, 18 months is a long time, and Woodley has probably made real improvements in that period based on the learning curve he has shown in the last several years.
With all of that said, the basic outlines of the matchup should favor Lawler. He has become an exceptional defensive wrestler, and Woodley won't find it easy to work takedowns. On the feet, he's a much more skilled striker. Lawler has also become a veteran of 25-minute fights, while Woodley's lone five-round outing saw him fade and suffer the one and only knockout loss of his career in the fourth round.
The first round is the danger zone for Lawler. Woodley's speed and power are shocking, and while Lawler's chin remains excellent and his ability to recover from damage is noteworthy, Woodley is the hardest puncher he's faced in recent years. It's going to take Lawler some time to get the timing and distance, and until he does, Woodley is deadly.
While it sounds counterintuitive, it might benefit Lawler to do what he did against Hendricks the second time and come out fired up, tie Woodley up in the clinch and land a barrage of knees to the body to wear down the challenger's gas tank and set the tone.
After the first and perhaps the second round, things should favor Lawler. His experience and depth of skill will come into play, and he should be able to pick Woodley apart with his jab, combinations and craft in exchanges. The pick is Lawler by late knockout or 49-46 decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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