Deconstructing Andruw Jones

(Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

In 1996, nobody outside of Atlanta had ever heard of the 19-year old center fielder named Andruw Jones. In fact, even those who closely followed the Braves hadn't heard much more about him other than the fact that the Braves had him locked up since the ripe old age of 16.

That was until his first two World Series at bats in historic Yankee Stadium.

Back then prospects weren't as highly tracked or widely discussed as they are now. If word on some fresh young talent made its way up to a team's typical fans it meant they were something big. But to have info on a Braves prospect available to typical fans in say Seattle, it was much less common than it has become here in 2009 where detailed scouting reports and ranked lists tell you everything you need to know.

So I can say first hand when I was watching the '96 series as a 17-year-old and saw this unknown teenager step up to the plate, I was with the majority of the country when I said "who?"

As true baseball fans we can always remember big moments in our favorite pastime. World Series moments especially have a way of ingraining themselves into our heads. Watching a relatively unknown teenager hit not one but two home runs in his first two at bats of a World Series in Yankee Stadium as a visitor is one of those moments that stick with someone.

And I'm sure it stuck with Andruw too.

And I'm sure the success Jones had over his great stretch with Atlanta has stuck with him too. In fact that might be part of the reason he's have such a tough time rebuilding his once stellar career. But we'll get to that in a moment. In the mean time I have to ask the question of what happened in the world of Andruw Jones to cause such a dramatic collapse of one of baseball's brightest stars?

Before we dive into what some of the causes could have been, we need to look at what kind of collapse we are talking about. Take a look at Andruw's career numbers and the dive they started taking immediately after his giant offensive seasons of 2005 and 2006.

As you can see Jones was pretty consistent in most of his offensive statistics from about 1998-2004 with the exception of stolen bases which started a dramatic drop off in 2000. But then 2005 came and we saw an incredible jump in home run totals for Jones. From 1998-2004 Jones averaged a little better than 32 homers, 98 RBI and hit .272 during that span including seven straight Gold Gloves. These were very strong numbers and any team would have loved to have that type of averaged stats from their center fielder despite a 18.76 K%.

Then the two big years (2005-06) came for Jones in which he hit .262, crushed 92 homers and drove in 257 RBI with a K% of 17.82. Those are huge numbers for anyone over a two year period and it was an incredible jump in power numbers. Over those two seasons it was way off his normal trend which saw a jump in homers average from 32 to 46 and RBI average jump from 98 to 129. His batting average however took a dive from .272 the previous seven seasons down to .263. Basically 2005 and 2006 were mirror images of each other except 10 less homers which look to have translated into a few more doubles.

At first look you may think that this was just a fluke and that was the reason for the large jump in numbers. But flukes are usually the result of one big season and Jones strung together two virtually identical giant years. A big reason for the increase in power was due to Jones opening up his stance and driving through the ball more. He made this adjustment before the 2005 season and ran with it. As you can see this adjustment made a huge difference almost immediately and helped solidify the heart of the Braves order. Everything was going fantastic for Jones especially with his contract coming up after the 2007 season. If he could continue his success he would be seeing an enormous payday heading into the winter of '07.

Unfortunately for Jones, his 2007 season saw a tremendous drop off in numbers. Not only did his homers (26) and RBI (94) numbers drop off significantly, we saw his batting average drop 29 points below his lowest thus far (2001) and an astonishing 48 point drop from his lowest slugging year (2001). To say Jones had hit a low was an understatement and it couldn't have come at a worse time for him with his contract coming due that winter.

Luckily for Jones he had super agent Scott Boras by his side and if there's one thing we have learned, Boras clients never lose out on a big payday. Boras used his slimy ways and was able to convince the Los Angeles Dodgers that Jones was the man they wanted patrolling center heading into the 2008 season. So in typical Boras fashion, he was able to spin Jones'

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