Realistic Expectations for Milwaukee Bucks Rookie Thon Maker in 2016-17

The Milwaukee Bucks made the most shocking move of the 2016 NBA draft by selecting Thon Maker with the 10th overall pick.

The biggest unknown in this year's rookie class because of the few times NBA teams had the chance to scout him, Maker was allowed to enter the draft without going to college since he had spent the last year at a postgraduate prep school in Canada. (So he was, as the rule specifies, one year removed from high school.)

But by choosing the prep school route, scouts had only been able to view him a handful of times at all-star events. The luxury of the one-and-done rule is that it allows NBA teams to see prospects play in pressure-packed situations against legitimate college talent.

On top of the lack of a real sample size, there were also questions entering the draft about whether Maker was actually 19 years old, according to Jake Fischer of SI.com. Watch Milwaukee's behind-the-scenes footage of the draft room, and it's obvious the front office was aware that taking him that high was a reach.

The skepticism about Maker's abilities is starting to fade after his performance in Las Vegas. He was an All-NBA Summer League second-team selection after averaging 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.

"I think he's answered that he can rebound the ball, and he's playing extremely hard on both ends," Milwaukee head coach Jason Kidd told ESPN's Cassidy Hubbarth during a summer-league telecast against the Dallas Mavericks. "He's young. He's only 19 years old, and he's got a lot to learn about the game, but his effort and energy is at a very high level."

The Bucks have the depth at power forward with Jabari Parker and Mirza Teletovic to bring Maker along slowly. 

Team Fit

The best thing that Maker does right now is shoot pick-and-pop jumpers, but that's also a skill set both Parker and Teletovic bring to the table. Milwaukee's hope down the road is that Maker can play alongside Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo anyway.

General manager John Hammond explained the lineup possibilities to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Charles F. Gardner:

"

Could you ever imagine, three years down the line when we're moving toward becoming a championship-caliber team, could you see having Giannis and Jabari and Thon at the floor at one time? I think it has a chance to be pretty dynamic, and I don't know who is playing what position, but hopefully we're going to be pretty good doing it.

"

The Bucks experimented with Antetokounmpo at point guard last year, and Parker could play small forward, or Maker could move to center when he adds some muscle to his frame. That sort of length on the floor at one time could make Milwaukee a defensive juggernaut. 

Based on Maker's summer-league performance, the timeline could be shorter than even the Bucks originally thought. He looked like one of the most talented players in this draft class over the last few weeks, though there's still plenty of reason to proceed deliberately.

Concerns

Bart Young/Getty Images

Maker's ability at 7'1" to shoot threes with ease and run the floor like a guard makes the imagination run wild. The South Sudan native also has solid footwork and doesn't need a lot of time to get off his jumper. It was impressive watching him work in the pick-and-pop.

The Bucks rave about Maker's work ethic, and he clearly spends a lot of time in the gym for individual workouts honing his skill. But when it comes time to play a team game, the rookie is far from a polished product.

He was a black hole in summer league and did not record a single assist in five games. Once he touched the ball, his only thought seemed to be getting up a shot. It's encouraging to see how confident he is, especially with his jumper, but when he couldn't get his attempt up right away, he was a possession killer.

He needs work seeing the floor when he goes to drive. In the play below, he caught the ball around the elbow and had two shooters wide-open:

WatchESPN screen shot

The ball should have gone to Rashad Vaughn (No. 20) for three. Instead, Maker had tunnel vision and tried to score over two defenders. 

This is the type of play that makes Draymond Green so dangerous. He can make defenses pay when the pick-and-roll sets up a three-on-two or four-on-three advantage. Maker has the hands, the jumper and quickness to get there if he's able to develop his vision. 

It's going to take time to get used to a team setting. Maker's spent most of his life able to dominate players his age, and there was no need to pass the ball. His lack of strength was also apparent when he got the ball inside and held it long enough for his defender to get set. He's easy to move off his spot and usually ends up still forcing a bad look.

This is where Maker misses the college experience—a good coach could have drilled some of these bad tendencies out of him. 

He's able to put the ball on the floor and has some moves in his repertoire—the ability to spin around defenders off the dribble and cover a lot of ground is borderline unfair at his size. He struggles to finish off that move right now, but once he gets stronger in his lower body and core, he'll become better at the rim.

Maker is also raw defensively, but he has better awareness there than on offense. Again, his ceiling is high because of his length, quickness and potential to guard multiple positions. He did a good job hedging on ball screens and offering some rim protection during summer league. He's quick off his feet and has good timing as a shot-blocker, though he did struggle trying to keep the ball in front of him even as his athleticism helped him recover. 

The best-case scenario is that Maker turns into a two-way, playmaking power forward who can score and set up teammates.

Expectations

Even though Maker is in the age range of a one-and-done freshman, he should be treated like players who entered the league straight out of high school before the age limit was put into effect. 

Considering Maker's talent and his lack of experience, his potential career arc could follow a guy such as Jermaine O'Neal, who also skipped college. O'Neal played only 45 games and averaged 10.2 minutes as a rookie, and he didn't become a regular until his fifth season in the league.

By year six, he was an All-Star.

Maker's rookie playing time could come down to how successful the Bucks are. This is a roster talented enough to make the playoffs, and if Milwaukee is playing well enough to remain in the postseason hunt, Kidd may hesitate to give Maker real minutes. If the Bucks struggle or have injuries, he could enter the rotation.

It's hard to say at this point. A lot of the same things could have been written about the Greek Freak as a rookie, and he ended up starting 23 games and playing 24.6 minutes per game. Maybe Maker progresses at the same rate.

No matter how it plays out, the Bucks have to feel good about their pick based on what they witnessed in summer league. Maker is a rare talent just needing to be molded.

Complete Per-Game Stat Predictions 

• Minutes: 11.2
• Points: 4.1
• Rebounds: 2.3
• Assists: 0.1
• Field-goal percentage: .371
• Blocks: 0.5

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.