Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

In the main event of UFC on Fox 20, bantamweights Holly Holm and Valentina Shevchenko will go toe to toe in pursuit of redemption. 

After capturing the division's title from Ronda Rousey in 2015, Holm relinquished the belt to Miesha Tate in her first attempted defense. The loss was the first of Holm's career, so she'll be looking to get back into the victory column by beating Shevchenko on July 23.

For her part, Shevchenko heads into the fight with a career 12-2 record and has gone 1-1 since joining the UFC. Most recently, current champion Amanda Nunes defeated her in a competitive three-round bout.

Both women bring impressive striking credentials to the Octagon, setting up what could be an outstanding stand-up battle. One combatant may look to take the other out of her natural element by focusing on takedowns. If so, who will it be, and will she succeed?

Let's take a look at who has the edge in the striking, grappling and submission departments, as well as how the fight might pan out.

Striking

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Holm famously knocked out Ronda Rousey.

Both Holm and Shevchenko were accomplished fighters before beginning their respective MMA careers.

Shevchenko was a highly regarded muay thai and kickboxing practitioner, capturing several titles and even defeating UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, while some consider Holm one of the greatest welterweight boxers of all time. 

Accolades from other sports do not always translate to the Octagon, but both Holm and Shevchenko have demonstrated their abilities in prior fights.

Holm has thrived under the UFC banner, making it easy to assume she'll dominate the action if Shevchenko engages her in a kickboxing match. However, it isn't as cut-and-dry as that. Shevchenko is dangerous at range and performs well in the clinch. She won't make things easy.

However, Holm is as good as advertised and has shown an exceptional capacity for avoiding incoming strikes. That's enough reason to give her the nod in this category, though not enough to predict complete domination. 

Edge: Holm

Grappling

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Shevchenko has earned five takedowns in two UFC fights.

As the division's premier striker, Holm has had little use for takedowns. Per FightMetric, she has attempted two during her UFC tenure and completed both. It's difficult to say whether she wields underrated wrestling ability or if her opponents were too surprised by the attempts to effectively defend them.

Defensively, Holm has been strong. Only Tate has dragged her to the mat, and she has defended 86 percent of her opponents' overall takedowns, according to FightMetric.

Shevchenko has generally shown adequate takedown defense but capitulated to a couple from Nunes, the current champion, in their bout at UFC 196. 

The 28-year-old has been more active than Holm with offensive wrestling, accruing five takedowns in two UFC appearances. Once she puts her opponents on the mat, she has done good work, amassing connections and advancing position. 

The advantage here is undoubtedly Shevchenko's, but it isn't so overwhelming that it will decisively influence the outcome. Both women are strikers by trade and are better at getting up than keeping their opponents down.

Edge: Shevchenko

Submissions

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Holm lost her title via rear-naked choke.

Despite her muay thai background, Shevchenko has earned more submission finishes than knockouts. While that speaks to her versatility, she isn't quite a wizard on the mat. In fact, the last time Shevchenko finished an opponent via submission was 2006. 

Since joining the UFC, Shevchenko has been more about landing strikes than targeting her opponents' limbs and neck. That focus might shift, however, given the perceived weakness of Holm's ground game.

If that's the case, Holm will have to show improvement from her fight against Tate. Before succumbing to a rear-naked choke in Round 5, she narrowly survived the same submission in Round 2. That result does not mean Holm is lost on the mat, but it does exhibit her vulnerability there.

Offensively, Holm poses little threat of submitting Shevchenko. She has never won via submission and hasn't even attempted to do so since joining the UFC, according to FightMetric. 

Edge: Shevchenko

X-Factors

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Will Shevchenko come back from adversity stronger than ever?

Holm's X-Factor: The Rebound

Holm scaled the mountain that is Rousey and planted her flag as the best 135-pound female fighter on the planet, only to tumble precipitously a few months later. Coming back from that won't be easy, especially against an unheralded and dangerous opponent.

Fortunately, Holm has tons of experience—not so much as a mixed martial artist, but in combat sports in general, especially as a boxer. She knows what it takes to recover a lost title and will need to stay focused on the task at hand. Shevchenko is too much of a challenge to discount.

Shevchenko's X-Factor: 

The UFC has been cruel to Shevchenko. Welcome to the most difficult MMA organization in the world, they said, here's Sarah Kaufman. Good job! Now try Nunes. That was too much? Here's Holm.

Shevchenko is extremely talented and will pose a greater threat to Holm than most people realize, but she's still new to this level of competition and has been given little time to ease into things.

Has she come far enough to break through to the division's top tier? Saturday will reveal whether the loss to Nunes has spurred Shevchenko to greater heights.

Prediction

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Holm is looking to rebound from her first defeat.

It's easy to write Shevchenko off in this one. Holm is a former champion, owns one of the most iconic knockouts in MMA history and possesses more Octagon experience. 

This fight isn't likely to be a blowout, however. Shevchenko's role as the underdog is easy to understand, but this pairing has no preordained outcome. Holm will have to be on her game to get back into the win column.

First, Holm needs to stay off her back. Shevchenko wields legitimate offensive ground skills and could either tally points or earn a submission should the fight hit the canvas. That danger makes things simple for Holm, but not at all easy.

Even if Holm does keep the fight upright, her margin for error is not sprawling. Shevchenko is a terrific striker and will pose some issues. Then again, Holm poses issues of her own.

Footwork and speed are tools Holm can utilize to do damage and mitigate Shevchenko's offense. These strengths have heavily influenced past fights and will be at play once again.

If Holm turns in a Holm-like outing, she should grab the victory. With any regression or momentary lapse, however, Shevchenko could pull the upset.

Prediction: Holm def. Shevchenko, unanimous decision