Another week of great NFL football leads us into another week of chaotic fantasy football. Lets look back at my predictions last week and on the season. Not looking kindly on last week…
Week 1: 11-5, Week 2: 15-8, Week 3: 12-9
HITs: Felix Jones (Start – He got hurt but put up yards. I’m being kind to myself here), Ray Rice (Start – Great game for PPR but McGahee’s was much better), Leon Washington (Sit – Hit this one right on but expect Mr. Leon to bounce back), Darren Sproles (Sit – My perfect prediction from last week), Matt Schaub (Start – Another great prediction if I say so myself lol), Ben Roethlisberger (Start – Could have been better and I’m looking at you Limas Sweed), Aaron Rodgers (Start – They showed up… this one was like cheating), Kerry Collins (Sit – No one should have been starting him anyway), Byron Leftwhich (Sit – Once again this one was too easy… I need to step it up), Ted Ginn (Sit – Yep. Hope you didn’t buy into the Indy game hype), Brent Celek (Start – Not a bad week for the TE), Anthony Fasano (Sit – Shhh… do you hear that? It's the Fasano sleeper hype dying).
MISSes: Clinton Portis (Start – Could I have been further off? Paging Jim Zorn: You’re an idiot), Michael Turner (Sit – I’ll put him here cause he scored a TD but the Pats did shut him down), Matt Cassel (Sit – His freakish two TDs messed up this prediction), Chad OchoCinco (Start – Not bad but not good enough), Mario Manningham (Start – Good but not great while Steve Smith brought in the TD), Calvin Johnson (Start – Not good at WRs last wk, time to worry about CJ), Nate Washington (Sit – One freak TD… Washington was SHUT DOWN), Tony Gonzalez (Start – I was off and so was Matt Ryan), Heath Miller (Sit – In a PPR League he did enough to make this a miss otherwise he underproduced).
Week 4 Picks
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Tennessee Titans – I’ve harped enough about not starting RBs against the Titans. But I’m putting this in to make sure people understand that there is NO WAY you can put MJD on your bench. Period. That is all. Service announcement over.
Cedric Benson @ Cleveland Browns – Just wait till you see the numbers he puts up on the Brownies this weekend.
Steve Slaton vs. Oakland Raiders – Slaton has likely found his way onto benches or onto new teams. This is the week you’ve been waiting for. He’ll start his rebound against the pathetic Raiders.
Tashard Choice @ Denver Broncos – Tons of fantasy analysts are going to rave about how Choice should be a great play this week. Denver is the seventh-best run defense in the league giving up just 78.3 yards per game. They have also only allowed one TD on the year. Now granted that includes games against the Browns and Raiders, but they started the year off against Benson and the Bengals. They gave up 76 yards and one TD. If Choice can manage that he’ll be a flex player at best. I do support starting Choice as a Flex option or as a bye week substitute but don’t get carried away with his potential. (Extra Note: I’m hearing Barber could return on Sunday… even in small carries he’ll get the GL attempts… further lowering any expectations).
Fred Taylor vs. Baltimore Ravens – Another “don’t buy the hype” to follow up on last week. Taylor had a great week last week and looked spectacular. But his up the gut, power running style is not going to bully the Ravens. Scatbacks works well against this BAL team not “mudders”. This team was built to stop the Bus. They can stop the once Fragile Fred.
Fred Jackson @ Miami Dolphins – This guy was an early season lifesaver for a lot of fantasy teams. But his matchup against a very good Miami run defense (partially their poor pass defense’s fault) & the return of Marshawn Lynch make for a poor showing this Sunday. Don’t drop him in any leagues (though entertain offers).
Matt Forte vs. Detroit Lions – I’m not off my rocker. The Lions have held up respectably against AP after giving up a lot to the New Orleans scoring machine. Mark my words, they clamp down on Forte this Sunday. (Extra Note: It is now Saturday & reports of hurting Detroit DEs is shaking me up. Desmond Clark is also now being reported as healthy enough to play on Sunday. I'm upgrading Forte past my "Sit" status)
Jay Culter vs. Detroit Lions – The whiney one gets another great matchup this weekend. I love Cutler as a football player. So I obviously will love him as a fantasy QB this weekend. He should light the Lions up unless he decides to suck.
Kerry Collins @ Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags can’t get pressure. Against a pure pocket passer like Collins that will be all types of bad news. Collins can pick you apart if you don’t get pressure. Collins will do his best Peyton Manning impersonation on Sunday. (Extra Note: I have Collins in my Dynasty League & I intend to start him over Big Ben)
Jason Campbell vs. Tampa Bay – The Redskins are the joke of the NFL for right now. So why isn’t Jason Campbell coming under pressure? Cause he is playing almost lights out. With a passer rating of 92.5 and a completion percentage of 67.6, the only thing missing is TDs. And who is he playing this week? Tampa Bay. Him & Santana Moss will be smiling all day Sunday. Jim Zorn meanwhile could ruin this by deciding that Clinton Portis needs to rush it 40 times in the first half….
Bye Week Special: I like Shaun Hill & Eli Manning a lot this weekend. Neither has done a whole lot to become fantasy starters but both could be very productive in their respective matchups this weekend. With Kurt Warner & Matt Ryan taking the week off, Tom Brady playing Baltimore & Tony Romo playing Denver there are a lot of owners looking for options.
Tony Romo @ Denver Broncos – The Broncos have given up zero passing TDs this year. Zero. They have five interceptions and 10 sacks. This defense (don’t ask me how) has been statistically good. Part of that is the dredge that they have been playing. But I think there is more to it. I’m not a fan of Tony Romo but I don’t feel good about this matchup in general. I’m banking against both Choice & Romo but if one proves me wrong, it's more likely to be Romo.
Kurt Warner vs. Bye Week – Yeah. Just being funny. Considered putting him in the Start section. But all my jokes in that area were inappropriate.
Philip Rivers @ Pittsburgh Steelers – This one is not a joke. The Troy-less Steelers have had a hard time the past two weeks. But the only team they know better than the Ravens is the San Diego Chargers. This has become a fairly heated matchup as many of the past couple games have been low-scoring nail biters. Don’t be shocked to see yards without TDs on both sides of this game.
WRs (Extra Note: I did horrific in the WR area last wk. In an effort to improve I am only going to list two sits & two starts, quality over quantity right?)
Santana Moss vs. Tampa Bay – There is no doubt of the who the burner for the Redskins is. What a great week to have him going up against arguably the worst safety duo in the NFL. I’m expecting a HUGE game for Moss…. don’t mess it up Zorn
Tory Holt vs. Tennessee Titans – Mike Sims-Walker has become the talk of the town in Jacksonville. But most of that has been due to excellent matchups. I think teams will start to see him as the only explosive Jag WR & put a stop to his production. Expect the veteran Holt to make the backup Titan DBs look foolish.
Calvin Johnson @ Chicago Bears – You heard it here first. I’m worried about Calvin Johnson. I don’t see a big game coming this weekend if Kevin Smith can’t play and lure the extra safety into the box.
Andre Johnson vs. Oakland Raiders – Wow. I didn’t intend to name two top tier WRs. But it just happened. Only thing Oakland will do right this weekend is keep AJ from beating them. Eat your heart out Steve Slaton and Owen Daniels.
John Carlson vs Indianapolis Colts – The Colts pass defense has been fairly good this season (to the surprise of many). But with one of their big name DEs out this weekend, their pass rush will suffer. Having to blitz a LB is never a good thing in a 4-3 but the Colts may need to do it to get after Wallace. All of this spells out a good game for John Carlson.
Greg Olsen vs Detroit Lions – I’m still hearing stirring of how Cutler will make a connection with his TE. Sorry but Cutler has never been a real “lean on the TE” type QB. Those underneath, short gain, loose coverage type throws aren’t manly enough for the great Jay Cutler! (I love making fun of Cutler… but I actually like him quite a bit) Needless to say. Don’t get sucked in this week. The CHI WRs are going to make the DET DBs look silly. Olsen wouldn’t do well in a PPT (Point Per Target) League on Sunday.