Why the Boston Celtics Should Go All-in on Blake Griffin
The 2016 free-agency bonanza may be drawing to a close, but the Boston Celtics are still on the hunt for another key piece for their improved core.
That search has reportedly taken them out West. Sean Deveney of the Sporting News noted last week the Celtics have targeted Los Angeles Clippers power forward Blake Griffin in trade talks. Deveney also indicated odds were that general manager Danny Ainge would make a major deal this summer.
While Griffin is not the only big name connected to Boston in recent days, the 27-year-old is an attractive piece for the Celtics as they attempt to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Eastern Conference.
From a team-building standpoint, it’s hard to find a better fit for Boston’s current roster than Griffin. The 2009 No. 1 overall pick would slot in perfectly next to a big like Al Horford, who is capable of stretching the floor to the three-point line. Without an offensively limited center like DeAndre Jordan clogging the lane for him, Griffin would thrive with the space a potent shooter like Horford provides.
The high-flying Griffin is perfect for Brad Stevens’ pace-and-space offense. He can attract doubles in the post, find cutters, wreak havoc in the pick-and-roll and knock down open mid-range jumpers consistently. Isaiah Thomas is an ideal partner for Griffin in the pick-and-roll as well, and defenses would suffer accounting for two highly efficient scorers on the move.
Following the departure of Jared Sullinger, one of the NBA's best rebounders, the Celtics desperately need reinforcements on the defensive glass. An aging Horford has seen his production decline there in recent years, but Griffin has the size and athleticism to fill the void.
Griffin’s own defensive rebounding rates have fallen in the past four years, but that stems from the emergence of Jordan, who grabbed 10-plus defensive caroms per game during the past two seasons.
Griffin could also provide the Celtics with a much-needed boost at the charity stripe. No player outside of Isaiah Thomas averaged more than 3.3 free-throw attempts during the 2015-16 season, forcing Boston to depend on perimeter jump shooting on too many nights. With Griffin in the fold, the Celtics could expect to add about seven free-throw attempts per game, his career average and a mark that would have placed him in the top 10 last season.
Perfect Timing?
The signing of Horford was arguably Boston’s biggest in franchise history, but inking a 30-year-old to a max contract is not a practical move for a team set on contending soon. Horford’s remaining prime years are limited, and Boston is best served maximizing production while he’s still at his peak.
Over the past three seasons, Ainge has built an arsenal of team-friendly contracts and valuable draft picks for major upgrades exactly like this. A 27-year-old Griffin precisely aligns with both Horford's and Thomas' career trajectories.
It will take a combination of players and draft picks to land a stud like Griffin, but the value of Boston’s current assets may never be higher. Dealing role players such as Avery Bradley ($8.3 million), Jae Crowder ($6.3 million) and/or Smart ($3.6 million) now, while under team control for multiple years at bargain prices, allows Ainge to fetch a star relatively simply. But the chances of landing a star with those pieces decrease the closer those players get to the free-agent market.
The Celtics also have salary-cap flexibility to add a max player like Griffin and not have to gut the remainder of the roster. No Celtic, outside of Horford will earn more than $12 million for the 2016-17 season. With the added bonus of incredibly valuable draft slots for 2017 (rights to swap first-round choices with Brooklyn) and 2018 (unprotected Brooklyn first-round pick), the ammo is in place to make a hard run at Griffin.
A Chance to Buy Low?
Griffin is a five-time All-Star coming off the most tumultuous season of his career. He played in just 35 regular-season games after suffering a partially torn quadriceps that sidelined him for more than three months. Griffin further compounded his own injury issues by breaking his right hand during a highly publicized altercation with a member of the team’s training staff.
The Clippers suspended the veteran four games for the incident.
After returning in time for the postseason following his suspension, Griffin aggravated his quad during Game 4 of the Clippers’ opening-round matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers. He was forced to sit out the final two games of the series as the Clippers fell in six games.
Normally, a double-double machine like Griffin entering his prime on a playoff team would never be a trade chip, but his on- and off-court concerns last season may have forced Doc Rivers' hand. His name reportedly came up in talks at this past February's trade deadline, according to multiple sources.
Griffin is entering what will likely be a contract year (he has an early termination option for the 2017-18 season), and the Clippers have not exactly excelled with him, having failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs during his six-year career. Rivers told Zach Lowe of ESPN.com that he would consider breaking up his Big Three if the Clippers had another disappointing postseason exit.
If Rivers is indeed going to shake things up, the Celtics have the defensive assets (Bradley, Smart, Crowder) that should be appealing to the Clippers, desperate to keep pace with the Golden State Warriors’ firepower.
The Celtics should push those trade chips to the middle of the table in hopes that Griffin’s down season helps them emerge with a rare opportunity to land a superstar.
All statistical and salary information provided by Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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