Dr. Bob Previews #22 BYU (-24) Vs. UTAH STATE

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 2, 2009

ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 05:  Steven Thomas #24 of the Brigham Young Cougars at Cowboys Stadium on September 5, 2009 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

#20 BYU (-24.0) 45 Utah St. 22

Over/Under Total: 63.5
06:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Oct-02

BYU has been impressive in averaging 6.8 yppl while allowing just 5.2 yppl against a tougher than average schedule of teams, but Utah State is certainly good enough to hang within the big number.

Diondre Borel is a quarterback whose star is on the rise and he's averaged a healthy 6.9 yards per pass play in the first 3 games (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average team). The Aggies also have a star in running back Robert Turbin, who has 373 yards in 3 games at 8.7 ypr and that number would still be very impressive even if you took out his 96 yard TD gallop.

BYU has been just slightly better than average defensively and their run defense is just average, so the Aggies should run well enough (they're averaging 6.4 yards per rushing play) to shorten the game and also score a good number of points.

My math model gives Utah State a 57% chance of covering at +24 points, but a negative 99-205-6 ATS situation applies to the Aggies and that angle has a 56% chance of covering going forward. I'll pass this one.

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