Pittsburgh (-6.5) 32 LOUISVILLE 22
Pittsburgh isn't as good defensively as they were projected to be (allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average team), but the Panthers are much better offensively with quarterback Bill Stull thriving after a mediocre first year as a starter in 2008. Stull has averaged 7.6 yards per pass play in 4 games against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback and freshman running back Dion Lewis is doing more than just filling the hole left by LeSean McCoy's departure.
Lewis has run for 493 yards at 5.7 ypr and Pitt's rushing attack is 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average after adjusting for their schedule. Overall, Pitt has been 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively and they should thrive tonight against a sub-par Louisville defense that's given up 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average defensive team.
Louisville is also a slightly worse than average offensive team so far this season, but they should move the ball at a decent rate if Pitt continues to under perform defensively.
My math favors Pitt by 10 points and I'll lean with the Panthers minus the points.
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