Italy vs. Germany Will Determine Euro 2016 Favourite

The bottom of the knockout draw at the 2016 UEFA European Championship was a daunting sight.

Among the eight teams on this side of the bracket were five former world champions.  France, England, Spain, Italy and Germany toted 11 World Cups combined into this phase of the competition, as well as nine combined Euro wins.  It looked like a series of titanic clashes was in order.

Despite the incredible capitulation of England to a Cinderella Iceland team, this side of the knockout round is still set to deliver some incredible football.  Iceland and France will be fascinating to watch, but the tie of the round will be a matchup of two titans of the world game: Italy vs. Germany.

These are two of the most successful footballing nations in the world.  They have won four World Cups apiece—only Brazil have won more.  They have also combined for four European titles.  On a club level, the two countries have combined for 19 European Cups.  This is truly a matchup of heavyweights, a clash worthy of a final.  And the winner will likely be the clear favourite to win the tournament.

Italy and Germany came into the tournament in very different situations.  The Germans—fresh off earning their fourth star by winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup—won their qualifying group, but not without a few complications.

Die Mannschaft have lost seven total games since they beat Argentina at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro.  Some of those losses were depressing, including three on German soil.  In the summer of 2015, they wasted a 12th-minute lead at home to the United States and lost 2-1.  This past March, they hosted England in Berlin and took a 2-0 lead before crumbling, eventually losing to an Eric Dier goal in stoppage time.

They lost twice in qualifying, to Poland and the Republic of Ireland, and dropped a pre-tournament friendly to Slovakia in Augsburg—a game that included another blown lead.

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In spite of these hiccups, the Germans came into the Euros as one of the nominal favourites.  On the other hand, the Italians were expected to have trouble just making the round of 16.  The Azzurri were missing their two best midfielders—Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti—to injury and didn't have a proven forward.  The general consensus was that Antonio Conte was bringing to France the worst team Italy had ever sent to a major tournament.

What they did have was an elite defence and the best tactical coach in the competition.  Conte has thrown criticism of his decisions back into the faces of their sources.  He has devised ingenious game plans to throttle two tournament favourites, Belgium and Spain.  His defence has suffocated teams, allowing only 12 shots on target in four matches.  Only one of those shots turned into a goal—and that came in the group-stage finale, which was a dead rubber for the Azzurri.

The Italians have established themselves as the best unified force in the tournament.  Their team play has been astonishing.

Whenever an Italian is under pressure in possession, two more appear in the vicinity, and a quick sequence of passes helps keep possession.  They've combined to produce dangerous attacks.  The so-called "BBC" defence, pulled straight from five-time defending Serie A champions Juventus, practically moves as one mind.  And if a team manages to get past them, legendary goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon is there as a last line of defence.

Germany, of course, are no slouches either.  Their defence is anchored by centre backs Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng.  Thomas Muller and a resurgent Mario Gomez provide goalscoring punch.  Toni Kroos and Sami Khedira anchor the midfield, while the likes of Julian Draxler and Mesut Ozil provide an element of individual creativity that the Italians sorely lack.  And they too boast a superlative goalkeeper in Manuel Neuer.

This clash of the titans is going to be very evenly matched.  The Germans boast one of the most talented squads left in the competition.  Conte's men have proved that they can compensate for a relative lack of individual quality with tightly girded team play and grit.

Saturday's game is going to come down to identifying individual weaknesses and exploiting them.  Whichever team does that will have probably overcome the most difficult redoubt between them and European glory.

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Sure, there are still some strong teams left.  Belgium, who by losing the group managed to find themselves on the weak side of the draw, have recovered well from their opening loss to the Italians.  France, who Saturday's winner could meet in the semi-finals, are led by a strong midfield and have the force of a home crowd behind them.  Neither will be easy outs.

But they aren't dominant either.  In fact, compelling arguments can be made that neither of them would present Italy or Germany with as stern a test as they will face in each other.

For all their hype coming into the tournament, the Belgians—ranked second in the world by FIFA—were seriously exposed against Italy.  Without captain Vincent Kompany as an anchor, Belgium's back line can come unpinned fairly easily.  The Manchester City captain isn't the only man out either.  After Nicolas Lombaerts withdrew with an injury, coach Marc Wilmots had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to stock his team with defenders.

For all their offensive firepower, that back line is a major red flag, and if Romelu Lukaku and/or Eden Hazard get marked out of the game the way they were against the Azzurri, their attack becomes less of a cannon and more of a pop gun.

France, on the other hand, are a team that haven't played up to their potential through four games.  In the group stage they needed two goals in the 89th minute or later to beat Romania and Albania, then they played a stunted goalless draw against their best competition, Switzerland.  On Sunday in the round of 16, they trailed the Republic of Ireland at half-time before settling in the second half to win 2-1.

Italy and Germany won't be so forgiving.  If they meet either team in the semi-final and start that slowly, they are unlikely to have the same kind of opportunity to recover.

A poor start against Germany could see Joachim Low's side end up two or three goals up by the time the French respond, and the Italians can score a single goal and then rely on tactical defending to see the game through.  Their back three possess a unique knowledge of how to confront midfielder Paul Pogba, their Juve team-mate—and he hasn't shown the kind of game-changing form everyone was expecting from him.

Whoever gets through on Saturday will face a smaller degree of difficulty throughout the remainder of the tournament.  France and Belgium are certainly capable of winning against either Germany or Italy, but neither will provide the kind of challenge that the Azzurri and Die Mannschaft present to each other.

If Iceland pull off another surprise or Belgium are upset on the other side of the bracket, chances are the following rounds will be even easier, although Iceland could present Italy with a tricky task in that they would have to break the upstarts down in possession.

Whoever wins, and whoever their opponents might be, the winner of this clash of footballing giants has to be considered the strong favourite to lift the Henri Delaunay Trophy in Saint-Denis on July 10.