Will Katie Ledecky Become the Most Dominant Swimmer in Olympic History?
At the USA Olympic swimming trials in Omaha, Nebraska, this week, Katie Ledecky will continue her push to become the greatest, most decorated swimmer of all time.
If you've followed swimming at any point in the past four years, you know her name. Ledecky's introduction for Friday morning's press conference began simply, "The lady to my left is no stranger to anybody."
But for the uninitiated, let's make one thing clear: At just 19 years old, Ledecky has accomplished more than most ever will.
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As a 15-year-old in London in 2012, she won gold in the 800-meter freestyle. Since then, she has been busy setting and resetting the world record in that event (and several others). According to Bryan Flaherty of the Washington Post, Ledecky has the eight fastest times in history in the 800-meter free and is more than seven seconds ahead of the next-closest challenger.
Seven seconds is nothing in our day-to-day lives, but in an eight-minute race, it's a downright ridiculous margin.
In that event, she's 1.5 percent better than any woman ever. It's the equivalent of someone not only breaking Wilt Chamberlain's record of 100 points in a basketball game but doing so eight times—with at least a decade remaining in their career, no less.
As Michael J. Joyner of the Mayo Clinic told Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post, "She's dominating by the widest margin in international sport. ... One or 2 percent in the Tour de France, over about 80 hours of racing, would be 30 or 40 minutes. It's just absolutely remarkable."
(Actually, 1.5 percent of 80 hours would be 72 minutes, but who's counting?)
But what's more incredible is the 800-meter free is just one of Ledecky's many fortes.
As is the case on dry land with track, the vast majority of swimmers stick to either short or long distance. You wouldn't find a world-champion marathon runner squaring off with Usain Bolt in a 100-meter sprint or vice versa. There's such a drastic physiological difference between the two events that it's all but physically impossible to become a star in both realms.
| Date | Event |
| June 27 | 400-Meter Freestyle Finals |
| June 28 | 200-Meter Freestyle Semifinals |
| June 29 | 200-Meter Freestyle Finals |
| June 30 | 100-Meter Freestyle Semifinals |
| July 1 | 100-Meter Freestyle Finals |
| July 2 | 800-Meter Freestyle Finals |
| July 2 | 50-Meter Freestyle Semifinals |
| July 3 | 50-Meter Freestyle Finals |
And yet, Ledecky is signed up to compete in the 50-, 100-, 200-, 400- and 800-meter freestyle trials this week in Omaha—though she scratched the 400 individual medley. And if it were an event offered at the Olympics, she'd be the favorite to win the 1,500-meter freestyle, too.
Last August at the FINA Championships in Kazan, Russia, she became the first swimmer to win the 200-, 400-, 800- and 1,500-meter freestyles in a major competition, according to USASwimming.org.
"The 400 and the 800 are kind of my go-to races and the races that I really love," Ledecky said during Friday's press conference. "But I also do really like the 100 and 200 and want to do just as well on those."
Because she competes in so many events and is becoming more of a master of her domain, she might one day surpass Michael Phelps in the record books.
She already came close to Phelps in one form of early dominance, as Olympic Talk's Nick Zaccardi noted:
Phelps has 22 Olympic medals—four more than any other Olympic athlete and 10 more than the next-closest swimmers (Jenny Thompson, Dara Torres and Natalie Coughlin are tied with 12). He also figures to add to that total this year in Rio de Janeiro. Thus, it might sound more than a little crazy to suggest that someone with just one career medal at the Olympics will break a nearly unattainable record.
Though he competed at the 2000 Olympics in Sydney, 15-year-old Phelps did not win a medal, so Ledecky already has a leg up on him in that regard. But even with that head start, can she compete in enough events over the next 12 (or more) years to dethrone Phelps?
Between the butterfly, freestyle, medley and relay events, he was in the pool for seemingly every event for the next three Olympics, winning eight medals in both 2004 and 2008. Even if she competes and medals in all three relay races (4x100-meter freestyle, 4x200 freestyle and 4x100 medley), Ledecky would need to also medal in five individual events to keep pace with Phelps—and then do it again in 2020 to remain on par with him.
That's a tall order.
The thing is, though, Ledecky doesn't lose, so it wouldn't be wise to doubt her potential to become the most dominant swimmer—male or female, US or abroad—in Olympic history.
Digging a little further into the comparison to the current greatest swimmer, even the mighty Phelps wasn't unbeatable early in his career. He was well-decorated after the 2002 Pan Pacific Championships and 2003 World Championships, but he "only" came home with seven golds and four silvers.
But according to Sheinin, Ledecky has swum in 12 individual finals at international events and never lost. She has won 15 gold medals (12 individual and three as a member of the 4x200-meter relay team) and has broken a world record 11 times.
And that doesn't include the world record she set for biggest understatement at a press conference on Friday:
"I should be able to swim fast this week."
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