Dr. Bob Previews VIKINGS (-3.5) Vs. PACKERS

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 1, 2009

MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 27: Adrian Peterson #28 of the Minnesota Vikings runs for yardage against the San Francisco 49ers at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on September 27, 2009 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the 49ers 27-24. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
MINNESOTA (-3.5) 24 Green Bay 17
Over/Under Total: 45.0
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-05

Brett Favre is the story heading into this game, as he faces his old team for the first time. However, Favre has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play so far this season and he'll need stud running back Adrian Peterson to carry the burden of winning this game.

Green Bay is mediocre in run defense so expect Peterson to average around 5 ypr to lead the Vikings' attack. The other key for a Minnesota victory is the ability of their good defense (0.6 yards per play better than average) to limit a slightly better than average Packers' offense (0.1 yppl better than average) that has improved their numbers in every game.

Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Brett Favre at this stage of Favre's career, but the rest of Favre's team has an advantage of their Green Bay counterparts and my ratings favor Minnesota by 4 1/2 points.

Also, 3-0 teams are 21-4 ATS in game 4 if they're at home and not favored by more than 4 points and the Vikings also apply to a solid 76-31-3 ATS statistical profile indicator.

I'll favor the Vikings to cover the number tonight and I lean with the Under.


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