Brett Favre is the story heading into this game, as he faces his old team for the first time. However, Favre has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play so far this season and he'll need stud running back Adrian Peterson to carry the burden of winning this game.
Green Bay is mediocre in run defense so expect Peterson to average around 5 ypr to lead the Vikings' attack. The other key for a Minnesota victory is the ability of their good defense (0.6 yards per play better than average) to limit a slightly better than average Packers' offense (0.1 yppl better than average) that has improved their numbers in every game.
Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Brett Favre at this stage of Favre's career, but the rest of Favre's team has an advantage of their Green Bay counterparts and my ratings favor Minnesota by 4 1/2 points.
Also, 3-0 teams are 21-4 ATS in game 4 if they're at home and not favored by more than 4 points and the Vikings also apply to a solid 76-31-3 ATS statistical profile indicator.
I'll favor the Vikings to cover the number tonight and I lean with the Under.
Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com
I have 1 NFL Best Bet and 2 NFL Strong Opinions this week!
Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal