Fantasy DC's Week Three: Waiver Wire Hawk

FantasyDCCorrespondent IOctober 1, 2009

How to burglarize your waiver wire before anyone gets a chance to.

The concept is simple. Pickup the waiver wire pickups the week before they become hot so you do not have to luck out on the waiver wire. Each week I will predict NEXT week’s hot waiver wire pickups so you can snag them before they become a hot commodity. I will continue to focus mainly on running backs and wide receivers because that is where your bread is buttered in fantasy football. The players are listed in order of relevance, and it is up to you to decide on which one is valuable enough to fit in a league your size. Make sure you don’t miss this article each week to become the waiver hawk in your league.


This Weeks Pickups
Glen Coffee RB, San Francisco 49ers (55 percent) If I could only predict injuries. Glen is the waiver wire darling of this week and he should be owned in more than just 55 percent of leagues.  Look for him to be universally owned after a big week against St. Louis.  With Gore out this week, expect Coffee to get all of the work that Gore had. Do not expect quite the same results as Gore, but he is a great bye week fill-in or flex play this week and until Gore returns.

Keenan Burton WR, St. Louis Rams (Five percent) The poor Rams can’t catch a break. Most recently they lose their best wide receiver and their starting quarterback. Both injuries will upgrade Keenan. Donnie Avery deserves a slight upgrade, but has been very disappointing thus far. Unlike most, I expect Keenan Burton to be the new go to guy in St. Louis and he should see a huge increase in ownership.

Maurice Morris RB, Detroit Lions (Four percent) Kevin Smith has been declared a game time decision for this week’s game against Chicago. Detroit is not a team that needs to risk injuries to their players for a shot at the playoffs.  Meanwhile, no one wants to notice that Detroit’s running game is averaging the 7th most amount of carries in the league at over 30 a game. Kevin Smith has averaged 95 total yards in his first three games. Many speculate that this could be a time share with Brown.  I think Morris will shoulder the load and will have the most value in week four. Coach Jim Schwartz has said himself that Maurice was brought in here to carry the ball 30 times a game if he needs to. Expect just that against Chicago.

Bryant Johnson WR, Detriot Lions (four percent) Bryant arguably has the most upside of any pickup this week.  Bryant should see his fair share of double teams this year opposite Calvin and he has shown to have some connection with Stafford.  Bryant is a big guy and has shown ability in the red zone. Bryant should be on your radar for a deep league start.

Julian Edelman WR, New England Patriots (four percent) A lot of people seem to be very worried about Welker. Do not be surprised if he misses the rest of the year. If he does, Edelman is a must add with Galloway struggling. Edelman has made a remarkable transition from college quarterback to NFL receiver. Once he finds a rhythm with Brady he could approach 70 catches in 2009.

Michael Bush RB, Oakland Raiders (23 percent) I just watched Inglorious Bastards and one line stuck in my head: “Facts can often be deceiving, rumors true or false can often be revealing.” There are rumors in Oakland this week that Michael will see increased time after DMC’s three fumbles last week. We know that 1) Oakland’s offense has been awful and likely look to change things up 2) They refuse to bench Russell 3) Oakland has shown a likeness to timeshares in the past. Look for Bush to get a significant amount of carries this week against a Houston defense that has allowed tons of big plays to running backs recently.

Josh Johnson QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (four percent) Tampa does have weapons. A talented quarterback could find some fantasy success in Tampa. Josh has all the talent to succeed. He immediately becomes the most dangerous running quarterback in the league and has an arm that can test safeties deep.  Don’t be surprised if Josh has a big game against Washington this week.

Mewelde Moore RB, Pittsburgh Steelers(five percent) Pittsburgh is throwing at a ridiculous 60 percent of the time and they find themselves in a 1-2 hole. Pittsburgh has faced three defenses all ranked in the top 12 in rush defense. This week they play against a San Diego defense allowing 142 rush yards per game. I am speculating that Moore will get much more of the workload this week with an injured Willie Parker and Pittsburgh will be more effective running the football.

Louis Murphy WR, Oakland Raiders (nine percent) After a tough matchup against Champ Bailey last week, Murphy was held to zero catches. This week Oakland finds a much easier matchup with the Houston Texans that rank last in average pass yards allowed. The Texans have made rookie Sanchez, aging Kerry Collins and struggling David Garrard look like all pros. While I am not suggesting that Russell will be an all pro this week, he should find some success through the air and Murphy is his top target by getting 26 percent of Russell’s pass attempts. Owners beware, remember who is throwing to Murphy.
 
Digging Deeper
Gartrell Johnson RB, New York Giants (zero percent)
Kelley Washington WR, Baltimore Ravens (seven percent)
Andre Caldwell WR, Cincinnati Bengals (13 percent)
Hakeem Nicks WR, New York Giants (11percent)
 
Some highlights from last week
Tashard Choice RB, Dallas Cowboys (10 percent) (41percent)
Jerome Harrison RB, Cleveland Browns (two percent) (eight percent)
Pierre Garcon WR, Indianapolis Colts (eight percent) 54%
Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Jaguars (25 percent) (45 percent)
Nate Washington WR, Tennessee Titans (24 percent) (27percent)
Jacoby Jones WR, Houston Texans (three percent) (11 percent)
Derek Anderson QB Cleveland Browns (two percent) (four percent) 
Seneca Wallace QB, Seattle Seahawks ( two percent) (three percent)
Jabar Gaffney WR, Denver Broncos (two percent) (two percent)
Lynell Hamilton RB, New Orleans Saints (one percent) (one percent)

Biggest Movers from past articles

Note: The second percentage number is the highest percentage the players were owned.
Carnell Williams, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22percent (65 percent)
Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo Bills 49 percent (85 percent)
Brandon Stokley WR, Denver Broncos four percent (18 percent)
Robert Meachem WR, New Orleans Saints eight percent (16 percent)
Louis Murphy WR, Oakland Raiders zero percent (12 percent)
Julian Edelman WR, New England Patriots zero percent (four percent)
Correll Buckhalter RB, Denver Broncos 22% (41%)
Chansi Stuckey WR, NY Jets nine percent (15 percent)
Laurent Robinson WR, St. Louis Rams five percent (23 percent)
Johnny Knox WR, Chicago Bears one percent (57 percent)
Mike Bell RB New Orleans Saints 30 percent (46 percent)
Mario Manningham nine percent (88 percent), Steve Smith 28 percent (88 percent) WR, New York Giants

....

Read Full Article