What Can the US National Team Realistically Hope to Achieve at the Copa America?
LOS ANGELES — How good is good enough? How deep do the USA have to go? Is the style in which they play important too? These are the key questions facing the United States and Jurgen Klinsmann ahead of the Copa America Centenario.
Chile showed in 2015 the boost a host nation can get at a tournament. Their fans filled the streets and the stadiums, and virtually the whole country roared their team on to victory.
The Los Angeles Times say "nothing less than advancing to the semifinals" will do for Klinsmann, and that seems to be the consensus among fans, too, with the penultimate stage of the tournament being a recognised achievement landmark.
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That means the USA will be looking to repeat La Roja's trick this summer. Except there are a few key differences.
Where Jorge Sampaoli had at his disposal world-class stars like Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sanchez and Claudio Bravo leading the way, Klinsmann has to turn to veterans like Clint Dempsey and Jermaine Jones to provide examples for the rest.
Where the Argentinian's setup was internally understood and a natural progression from what Marcelo Bielsa started, Klinsmann seems to have tinkered, dabbled and switched, but without ever settling on a clear starting side or even formation—although 4-3-3 does look increasingly likely to be used at this tournament.
While Chile arrived at the 2015 Copa America coming off the back of an impressive World Cup campaign where they beat Spain in the group but were knocked out by hosts Brazil on penalties, the USA have suffered some bad results, including their disappointing fourth-place finish at the Gold Cup.
They are second in their World Cup qualifying group for Russia 2018, behind minnows Trinidad and Tobago.
And while the majority of people in Chile had huge interest in the tournament, with entire cities obsessing over it, in the United States it's very much an event that will have a small but dedicated audience.
Football as a sport is still growing in the American consciousness, and this tournament will raise its profile further still, but ticket sales that have not seen any match sell out show that it's not captivating large numbers of people.
The USA's striker, Jose Altidore, suffered a hamstring injury and has been ruled out for the tournament, the same problem that affected him at the Gold Cup and the World Cup in 2014 before that.
But amid the confusion and unsettled nature of the team, there are some bright shoots—namely Christian Pulisic and Darlington Nagbe. The Borussia Dortmund and Portland Timbers men, respectively, could turn an often dry U.S. team into an exciting attacking force.
The pair combined in the pre-tournament friendly against Bolivia, with Nagbe feeding Pulisic, who scored to become the youngest scorer in the country's history at 17 years and 253 days old.
Pulisic joined Borussia Dortmund in January 2015 and made his debut for the German side a year later. On top of his U.S. record, he's also the youngest foreign player to score in the Bundesliga.
Despite his tender age, many believe the midfielder is ready to make an impact now—at this tournament.
Doug Harris, president of PA Classics, the small club where Pulisic started out, spoke about the player's mentality with the Guardian's Nick Ames:
"I remember watching an academy game and it went into penalties. Straightaway, Christian, the youngest kid by a long way, stepped right up. Big moment, big game, but he had the sheer confidence and mindset that he would score – which he did. Seeing that, I knew there was something unique about his psychological construct.
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Nagbe, on the cusp of turning 26, is not a youngster. Because of the long wait for him to become eligible to play for the USA, though, he feels like a fresh, interesting talent.
It was his powerful run and quick feet that carved out the opening for Pulisic, and the pair may end up making big impacts off the bench. That said, when Klinsmann is involved, it's hard to predict a starting lineup.
Scott Nicholls, U.S. men's national team writer for Prost Amerika and KICK, believes U.S. fans are a little fed up with the coach's tinkering and would like him to settle on a side.
"A lot of Klinsmann's tinkering and testing younger inexperienced players led to a shoddy showing at the CONCACAF Gold Cup, and that cost the U.S. men's national team a place at the Confederations Cup," he told Bleacher Report.
"The majority of fans just want Klinsmann to put the best team out on the field and play the players in their most effective positions. I think the pressure is there to play Nagbe and Pulisic because they're ready to contribute now, rather than because they're young."
Regardless of whether the U.S. impress or not this summer, it will be tricky for them to part ways with Klinsmann unless the German decides it's time to leave, so embedded is he in the setup.
Nicholls added: "He's essentially both head coach and technical director. So we won't know how successful he has been until maybe 20 years from now, because he helps U.S. Soccer develop its youth. He's already started implementing changes as far down as U12 soccer structuring."
So while the German may be maligned now, his work could pay off in the future. If Pulisic and Nagbe get the chance to play and do the coach justice, the tide of opinion could begin to turn in his favour.
However, put yourself in Klinsmann’s shoes. The coach knows how important this tournament is for the perception of both men's football and himself in the U.S. He's even compared it to Euro 2016 in a positive light.
"If you compare this Copa America with these 16 nations compared to 24 going into the Euros, then I almost think you have more quality in this Copa America than you have with a diluted kind of 24-team version of the European championship," said Klinsmann, per MLSSoccer.com.
The coach is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he doesn't play the younger players, he'll be criticised. If he does play them and things don't go well, likewise.
The best outcome, of course, is that he plays them and they thrive in tournament football, setting the country up to complete their qualifying campaign for World Cup 2018 and maturing into consistent key players by that tournament.
Another positive for Klinsmann going into the Copa America is Gyasi Zardes, who netted twice against Bolivia. Along with Bobby Wood, those two are good options to flank Clint Dempsey in the absence of Altidore.
Behind is where we could see something interesting happen. Alejandro Bedoya, Jones and Michael Bradley look likely to be the coach's midfield trio, but introducing Nagbe to the mix would certainly make the USA a more attractive side to watch. Along with Pulisic, he might also be a big creative help and drive the team through arguably the trickiest—or at least most even—group.
Colombia, Costa Rica and Paraguay each boast their strong points. The USA don't have a player with as much creative control as James Rodriguez, while Costa Rica are in a wonderful spell in their history, and Paraguay are as tough as ever.
ESPN FC's Arch Bell predicted the USA to come bottom of their group, showing the contrast between fans who believe a semi-final finish is possible and some pundits.
"The play of the U.S. in the last 18 months does nothing to suggest that Jurgen Klinsmann's men will advance," he wrote. "This will be a rough tournament for the hosts."
What has gone well are the warm-up friendlies, although they can't be taken too seriously as a test for the competition itself.
Beating Puerto Rico 3-1 away from home and then Ecuador and Bolivia 1-0 and 4-0, respectively, has whetted the appetite for some fans, although it may actually increase the pressure on the coach, with heightened expectation levels.
In the first game against Colombia, it would be surprising if Klinsmann gambled and went for either Nagbe or Pulisic, but don't be surprised if he calls on them after that, because at least that covers the aesthetics side of it.
Few would disagree that reaching the semi-finals means the USA would have enjoyed a good tournament. But to do it with those two in important roles increases the probability they did it stylishly and also in a way that will help them in the future—like at the next World Cup.
Klinsmann will take the final call, but it seems like it might be worth the risk.
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