The Seventh Annual 2009-10 NHL Predictions…of Truculence

(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Because let’s face it…this season means business.

The burgeoning dynastic potential of the Pittsburgh Penguins vs the “We’ve still got it, damnit!” approach of the Detroit Red Wings.

The 2010 Olympics…and rumour-mongering as to the status of 2014 in Sochi, The potential rebirth of the Toronto Maple Leafs…as well as the St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings, The potential for destruction in…Montreal.

Will Boston or Washington take the next step? Are Carolina for real? Can Calgary’s defense play to even 75% of it’s potential under The Brothers Sutter? And will Mikka Kiprusoff get enough time off this year to actually play well?

Will Chicago continue it’s ascension to the top of the Western Conference, or will a) Detroit, b) in-house issues (the 2010 contract statuses of Kane, Towes, and Keith) weigh on the players’ minds, or c) a combination of both, be able to stop them? 

Is Cristobal Huet The Man? For that matter, really Phili, Ray Emery?

Alright, let’s do this thing. Within the confines of the theme of truculence, this will not be one of my usual 6,000+ word full-season theses. Thanks to boxing injuries on both elbows which, ironically enough have left me with “Golfers’ elbow,” typing is for a lack of a better term, a huge bitch.

So this will be rather concise. Full prediction of standings, and one major thought/question mark for each team. Followed by playoff predictions, and Stanley Cup winning predictions.

P.S. Who predicted the Pens winning the Stanley Cup last year? This guy, that’s who.

Before we start, I have to explain one thing: The Gretzky/Oilers of the 80’s Corollary. Ever since Sidney Crosby began his NHL career, I have compared it to that of Wayne Gretzky, both individually and in terms of their respective teams’ development.

My hypothesis going in was that Crosby would be this generation’s Gretzky. While Crosby will never put up 92 goals, 162 assists, or 215 points in any single season, he also plays in the six-goals-per-game era, as opposed to the 8.5 goals-per-game free-wheeling era that was the majority of the 1980’s.

If both players ascended to the same position in the NHL hierarchy, and both teams had similar supporting casts, by all rights Pittsburgh should win multiple Stanley Cups during the peak years of Crosby and said supporting cast.

Here are the direct comparisons between the teams.

Gretzky-Crosby

Messier-Malkin

Coffee-Gonchar

Fuhr/Moog-Fleury

Lowe-Orpik

McTavish/Krushelnvski-Staal

Yes there are differences between each player in the comparison. But ultimately, the players play basically the same role on their respective teams.

And while Pittsburgh have no one to mirror the production of both Jari Kurri and Glenn Anderson, the parity of the 30 team Salary Cap era makes it unnecessary in terms of being able to successfully prove the hypothesis.

So let’s see how the corollary is doing.

Neither won the Calder Trophy. Gretzky because he’d played a pro season with the WHA. Crosby because the 2004-05 NHL season was cancelled, and negated Alex Ovechkin’s likely first NHL season.

Gretzky won the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP in his rookie year, and won it for eight consecutive years, and nine of 10. Crosby won the NHL MVP in his second season, and has lost to Alex Ovechkin the last two seasons after losing games to injuries both seasons.

Gretzky also never had a player as comparably dynamic to himself as Ovechkin is to Crosby during his the majority of his peak years.

Gretzky’s Oilers made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in his fourth season with the team (in the NHL), and lost. Crosby’s Penguins made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in his third season with the team, and lost. That’s pretty damn close.

Gretzky’s Oilers won the Stanley Cup in his fifth season with the team (in the NHL). Crosby’s Penguins won the Stanley Cup in his fourth season with the team.

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