The Dayton Game: Minnesota Twins

Joe Posnanski played an interesting game in his blog yesterday, which if you aren’t already reading, you should be.

The game is named for current Royals GM Dayton Moore and essentially takes a look at how many all-star level tools, not players, any given team has.

I've quoted part of it here, mostly because I love the way Posnanski describes the system.

“OK, so Royals general manager Dayton Moore showed me this fun little game you can play with your team. It begins with a scouting question: How many '60 tools' does your team have?

I probably don’t need to explain that concept to the brilliant readership of this blog* but, I will. As you know, scouts judge players’ tools (hitting, power, speed, defense, arm) on that famed 20-80 scale, which as I understand it goes like this:

20 — Sucks beyond belief. Travis Hafner’s defense would be a 20. Barely knows which glove goes on which hand. Tony Pena Jr. is a 20 hitter. Bengie Molina is a 20 runner. Jason Kendall has 20 power. Andie McDowell is a 20 actress. Carrottop is a 20 comedian. Roger Clemens is a 20 liar. And so on.

30 — Just plain sucks. Johnny Damon’s arm might be a 30. It’s a 20 on the strength scale — it’s ASTONISHING how weak his arm is — but I’d say it’s a 30 overall because he is usually accurate with it, at least.

40 — Doesn’t suck, but is still a tick below average. I’d say Kevin Youkilis is a 40 runner. Maybe Jermaine Dye. Maybe someone in between them.

50 — Exactly major league average. In 2005, Brandon Inge had almost the perfect 50 season. He hit .261/.330/.419 with 16 home runs, he stole seven bases and was caught six times, he had a .957 fielding percentage which was precisely the league average, and so on.

60 — All-Star Level. Placido Polanco is probably a 60 hitter. I think that Carlos Beltran — when healthy and engaged — has 60 power and 60 speed.
70 — Above All-Star Level. This is the superstar category. Lance Berkman has 70 power. Torii Hunter is (or certainly was — I don’t know if he’s fallen off at all) a 70 center fielder. Jose Reyes has 70 speed.

80 — Superhuman. There are scouts that just won’t give the 80 to anyone. An 80 would be — Albert Pujols or Ted Williams would be an 80 hitter. Mickey Mantle or Big Head Barry would have 80 power. Cool Papa Bell would be an 80 runner. Roberto may have had the only 80 outfield arm in baseball history (though Ellis Valentine should be heard). Ozzie at short, Mays in center, JB behind the plate are 80 defenders. ”


With that scale in mind, here are the Twins’ 60 or better tools. Each one may well be above 60, Carlos Gomez’s speed is probably in the 70-75 range, but all that matters here is that they are at least a 60.

1.    Carlos Gomez’s Speed

A.    Jose Reyes once said that Carlos Gomez was faster than he was.
B.    Joe Posnanski lists Reyes as having at least 70 speed
C.    Ergo, Carlos Gomez has at least 71 speed and 71>6

2.    Carlos Gomez’s Defense

This is a little hard to tell for sure, given that Gomez’s speed makes up for some of his bad routes in the field. However, he has shown a good sense for where the ball will end up and has a flair for the dramatic. He has all the look of the third in a line of spectacular Twins center fielders, Puckett, Hunter, and now Gomez.

3.    Alexi Casilla’s Speed

Casilla gets much less press than Gomez does, but he too can absolutely fly. Baseball Prospectus lists him well into the 90th percentile when it comes to speed, and while he doesn’t have the gaudy stolen base numbers of Ichiro or Jose Reyes, he is always a threat once he gets on base.

4.    Joe Mauer’s Hitting

He’s already got one batting title under his belt, and after a down year last year, he looks ready to compete once again. Mauer’s patience is one of his biggest assets, but when he does swing, it is one of the most fundamentally sound cuts in the game.

5.    Justin Morneau’s Power

Since becoming the first Twin in 19 years to hit 30 home runs, Morneau has continued to put up good power numbers. He hit 31 last year, despite a terrible second half of the season. He’s on pace for his third straight season of over 30 HR.

6.    Justin Morneau’s Defense

He’s no Dougie Baseball, but then again, there’s a reason the Twins let Mientkiewicz go when Morneau looked ready.  The Twins infield defense has been inconsistent at best, but Morneau has looked exceptional digging balls out at first, no matter who threw them.

7.    Michael Cuddyer’s Arm

Cuddyer has one of the best arms in right field in the majors. He’s flashed it a few times this year, but he still has more to show. Once he regains his comfort out in the field and at the plate, I expect we’ll see Cuddyer in better position to make a few ambitious baserunners regret rounding first.

8.    Delmon Young’s Arm

Listed as having the best arm in the majors by Jerry Crasnick last year, Delmon has shown a serious cannon in left. He’s got the most OF assists of any left fielder, but still occasionally throws to the wrong base.  As his overall defense improves, his arm should become the stuff of legends.

Honorable Mention: Gomez’s Arm, Mauer’s D, Morneau’s Hitting, Kubel’s Power

Eight All-star level tools for the everyday players, it doesn’t seem great, but I’m probably being pretty stingy. It is also important to note that Gomez and Young will both develop more as the age and grow.

I expect Young to improve his defense and power, and Gomez should bump up his hitting and his power. If each of them can add one more All-Star level tool, it will push the Twins into double digits, and probably give them 3-4 strong All-Star candidates. As it stands, I see Mauer and Morneau as starters and a substantial drop-off thereafter.