Hawaii 31 LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5) 30
Hawaii is averaging a healthy 32 points per game, but the Warriors are a much better offensive team than that figure indicates, as they've averaged 517 total yards per game at an incredible 8.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team.
Hawaii has had trouble scoring in the red zone (just 3.4 points per opportunity inside the opponent's 20 yard line), but a lot of that is just random variance and I expect Hawaii to be better in that category going forward.
Quarterback Greg Alexander, averaging an incredible 9.8 yards per pass play, and the Hawaii offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad Louisiana Tech pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass play to 3 teams that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team.
Hawaii's defense hasn't been too much worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl) and the Bulldogs' attack has been limited to just 5.5 yppl by teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. In two games against Division 1A teams the Bulldogs have averaged just 3.7 yppl (against Auburn and Navy), so they're struggling offensively.
Unfortunately, Hawaii applies to a very negative 66-156-2 ATS situation and a 109-198-6 ATS situation that combine to go 1-12 ATS when both apply to the same team. Still, it's clear to me that Hawaii is the much better team and should be favored in this game.
I'll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more based on the line value, but the situational analysis will keep me from making the Warriors a Best Bet.
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