2008 NFL Preview: NFC South

The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only division winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9-7 record. Still, the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the division and 4-6 outside of it.

The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside the division. This is a division that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions.  No team is vastly superior to the other, with the exception of Atlanta.

Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Matt Ryan plays well as a rookie and things bounce their way. It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open race in 2008.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.

New Orleans Saints

'07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 379 (12th)
Points Allowed: 388 (25th)
Playoff Result: No Playoffs
2008 Strength of Schedule: 115-141 (.449) (27th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked third in passing yards as Drew Brees threw for 4,423 yards. The problem is that he had one touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first four games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves to start the season. In his last 12 games, he had 28 touchdown passes, seven interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to mulligan the first four games of the season. Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games, they lost their last two games to close the season and missed the playoffs.

The Saints were so inconsistent during the season. They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to the Rams where they were routed for the first three quarters. This team has to work on their consistency. They can’t go in the tank for four games, win four in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.

There are a lot of good weapons in place.  Drew Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Marques  Colston is entering his third season and looks primed to have a season similar to the one Braylon Edwards had in 2007.

Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly, is an explosive weapon. The Saints used him in too many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to Deuce McAllister hurt them with that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the lineup. Aaron Stecker had a solid end to the season and gives them more options at the RB position.  

Deverey Henderson, Robert Meacham, and Eric Johnson are all quality targets.  The Saints have a stockpile of offensive weapons and can put up points in bunches.  If they can cut down on their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more points and should win more games than in 2007.

Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652.  They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 25th in the league. That means they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5 percent of the time. The result was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring offense that ranked 12th. With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to overcome that hurdle.

For as good of a play caller as Sean Payton was in 2006, he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first four games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to the receivers down the field. If a defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.

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