2008 NFL Preview: NFC South

The NFC South was arguably the weakest division in the NFL in 2007. Tampa Bay was the only division winner in 2007 not to win 10 games. Tampa Bay fans will point to the fact that they sat a lot of starters the last two weeks that resulted in their 9-7 record. Still, the Buccaneers were 5-1 in the division and 4-6 outside of it.

The Panthers and Saints were 3-3 against the division and 4-6 outside of it. The Falcons were 3-7 outside the division. This is a division that really struggled to win games against teams in other divisions.  No team is vastly superior to the other, with the exception of Atlanta.

Even they could potentially finish out of the cellar if Matt Ryan plays well as a rookie and things bounce their way. It is difficult to argue that this is anything other than a wide-open race in 2008.

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the NFC South.

New Orleans Saints

'07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 379 (12th)
Points Allowed: 388 (25th)
Playoff Result: No Playoffs
2008 Strength of Schedule: 115-141 (.449) (27th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Saints have a terrific passing offense. The Saints ranked third in passing yards as Drew Brees threw for 4,423 yards. The problem is that he had one touchdown, 11 picks, and a 52.7 QB rating in his first four games. The Saints dug a 0-4 hole for themselves to start the season. In his last 12 games, he had 28 touchdown passes, seven interceptions, and a 103.1 QB rating. The problem is you don’t get to mulligan the first four games of the season. Despite going 7-3 in their next 10 games, they lost their last two games to close the season and missed the playoffs.

The Saints were so inconsistent during the season. They beat Jacksonville 41-24 and followed that up with a 37-29 loss to the Rams where they were routed for the first three quarters. This team has to work on their consistency. They can’t go in the tank for four games, win four in a row, and then lose to teams like the Rams. They have to bring it every Sunday.

There are a lot of good weapons in place.  Drew Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Marques  Colston is entering his third season and looks primed to have a season similar to the one Braylon Edwards had in 2007.

Reggie Bush still has his faults, but when used properly, is an explosive weapon. The Saints used him in too many reverses last season and gadget plays. They need to get back to the way they used him in 2006, which was as a spark plug, not the featured player in the offense. The injury to Deuce McAllister hurt them with that, but they were struggling to get Bush going while both were in the lineup. Aaron Stecker had a solid end to the season and gives them more options at the RB position.  

Deverey Henderson, Robert Meacham, and Eric Johnson are all quality targets.  The Saints have a stockpile of offensive weapons and can put up points in bunches.  If they can cut down on their turnovers and play with more consistency, they will score even more points and should win more games than in 2007.

Weaknesses: The Saints were the only team to attempt more than 600 passes in 2007 with 652.  They ran the ball only 392 times, which ranked 25th in the league. That means they passed the ball 62.5 percent of the time and ran the ball only 37.5 percent of the time. The result was a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the NFL and a scoring offense that ranked 12th. With the problems this team had on defense, they weren’t able to overcome that hurdle.

For as good of a play caller as Sean Payton was in 2006, he was equally bad in 2007, especially in the first four games of the season. The Saints have to find ways to run the ball, cut down on turnovers, and pass the ball down the field. They threw the ball way too much to Bush and not enough to the receivers down the field. If a defense stacks the line of scrimmage, you can’t throw the ball to Bush and expect him to run through and by everyone. He has not yet shown that type of ability.

The Saints concentrated on improving their defense this off-season. They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3 scheme. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production last year.  If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form, that will help the Saints' defense considerably. They drafted Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle position. They also added Bobby McCray. Those two should help the Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand jury with involuntary manslaughter.

They've also improved their secondary. Randall Gay is an upgrade. They also drafted Tracy Porter in the second round from Indiana. The Saints are hoping that with a couple of additional pass rushers and a few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.

Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans Saints for their 2007 season, and I’m not even a Saints fan. My preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying, to say the least.
The most troubling thing was that they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t stop the pass. That keeps other offenses on the field to exploit the Saints’ weakness and the result was blowouts to good teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.

I think they have improved this defense.  I’m not saying it will be confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, Gay, and Porter should help. I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down the field more this season.

The schedule looks good for them.  It is one of the easier ones in the NFL. The AFC West is going through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Francisco are winnable games as well. They aren't in an AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.

I went back and forth on whether to pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year.  After much debate, I finally decided to give them another try. That doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.

New Orleans’ Record: 10-6–NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC No. 3 Seed

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

'07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 270 (3rd)
Playoff Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2007. The Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per game, and  third in points allowed with 16.9.  Their only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.

They didn’t do well on defense by putting a lot of pressure on the QB. Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 interceptions ranked tied for 17th in the NFL. Their completion percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank No. 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?

The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play most of the top passing offenses. They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina twice without Jake Delhomme. They played the NFC West 49ers and Rams. Washington had passing issues. The best passing offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indianapolis, Houston, New Orleans twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.

The second reason is that they were good at controlling the clock and playing field position.  They ranked 11th in both rushing yards and rushing attempts.  They tied for first in the NFL with interceptions thrown, tossing just eight.  Jeff Garcia had only four interceptions on the season, three of them coming in the Jacksonville game.  That combination resulted in an offense that did not put the Bucs defense in bad position on the field.  Even though the Bucs didn’t force turnovers and sacks, the opposing offense had to go the distance.

That isn’t to say that the Bucs defense doesn’t have talent. Derrick Brooks is still a great linebacker. Gaines Adams had six sacks in his rookie season and should look to approach double-digit sacks in 2008. Ronde Barber is still a very respected cornerback. There are a lot of quality players on that defense.

The problem for the Bucs is that Brooks is 35 and Barber is 33-years old. Those are two of their best players.  he Bucs have done a good job of adding defensive talent. They drafted Aqib Talib to add youth to the secondary and replace Brian Kelly who left for Detroit in free agency.  The Bucs must continue to get younger on defense as the last remaining pieces to their 2002 Super Bowl team are reaching the twilight of their brilliant careers.

Weaknesses: The offense was not very explosive in 2007. The Bucs were 20th in points scored with 20.9. They were 18th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 11th in rushing yards. If Tampa Bay wants to take the next step, they have to do better on offense.

Jeff Garcia (38) did make the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement. The Bucs do not have a shortage of quarterbacks behind him. Chris Simms, Brian Griese, and even the retired Jake Plummer are all property of Tampa Bay, and with the exception of Plummer, ready to play on a minute’s notice.

Joey Galloway had his third straight 1,000-yard season in Tampa Bay, but turns 37 in November. Earnest Graham filled in well for the injured Cadillac Williams and had 898 rushing yards to go with his 10 rushing touchdowns.  Warrick Dunn should do well in Gruden’s offense as a pass catcher, but he too is 33-years old.

There just isn’t a lot after that. Williams has been injured and disappointing since a strong rookie campaign in 2005.  Ike Hilliard had 722 yards and one touchdown in 2007 as the No. 2 receiver.  Michael Clayton has fewer yards (1029) in his last three seasons than he did in his rookie season of 2004 with 1,193. He has been beyond disappointing.   They just don’t have a lot of weapons after Galloway to throw down the field to. Tight End has been a nonexistent position.  Alex Smith led the way with 385 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bucs tried to upgrade their receiver position with Dexter Jackson in the second round. His biggest contribution will probably come in the return game. The Bucs figure to have to win with strong defense, good running, short passes, and no turnovers in 2008. They just don't have the firepower to challenge the top offenses in the NFL.

Prediction: This is always a tough division to pick. The Falcons won the division in ‘04, the Panthers in ‘05, the Saints in ‘06, and the Buccaneers in ‘07. It seems like any team could win this division year in and year out and the Bucs have the defense to compete.

I like the Bucs defense, but I still don’t understand how they won the division over the Saints in 2007. While Garcia was a nice addition and defense does go a long way to helping a team win games, the Saints passing game was vastly superior and should have been enough to carry them, even with their 0-4 start.  Had Payton not called that gadget play against the Bucs late in the fourth quarter that gave Tampa Bay new life, New Orleans would have tied Tampa Bay for the division lead in Week 13 and Tampa Bay would probably not have been able to rest everyone to close the season. Things could have turned out much different.

This team reminds me of the 2006 Baltimore Ravens. The individual and team statistics do not scream division winner, but at the end of the year they are on top. Coaching was as much the difference in 2007 in the NFC South as anything. Jon Gruden is by far the best coach in that division.

I think Garcia can still lead this offense and they have intriguing backups should he go down. Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver all offer potential for wins. Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Diego could all be very tough opponents.

I just think their key defenders are a year older, the offense doesn’t look much better, and the schedule is tougher. I know they could have finished above 9-7 had they played all their players the last couple weeks, but I just don’t see this team repeating in the division. I think they finish near .500, make things interesting in the division, and compete with Carolina for second place in this always-volatile division.

Tampa Bay’s Record: 8–8 NFC South second Place; No Playoffs 

Carolina Panthers

'07 Record: 7-9
Points Scored: 267 (26th)
Points Allowed: 349 (15th)
Playoff Result: No Playoffs
2008 Strength of Schedule:119-137 (.465) (22nd (t) in NFL)

Strengths: Given the offense the Panthers played with in 2007, the defense did very well to finish 15th in points allowed. While the Panthers’ defense was weaker than previous seasons, they still finished in the middle of the pack in the NFL.
The Panthers added some nice talent in the draft.  Dan Conner is a good linebacker from a solid linebacker program in Penn State that should contribute soon. Charles Godfrey is a defensive back that could also see the field immediately.

The Panthers secondary still has solid corners. Gamble and Lucas are excellent in coverage.  They have to improve on their 31st ranked pass rush, which generated 23 sacks if they want to get the full production out of those guys. They can’t be effective if the quarterback has all day to throw the ball.

On offense, Steve Smith is still a top-flight wide receiver. D.J. Hackett was a good addition. Muhsin Muhammad is well past his prime, but is familiar with Carolina and can help as a possession wide receiver.  Dwayne Jarrett needs to step up in his second year. He had just six catches for 73 yards in his rookie campaign. Jeff King has the potential to put up good numbers at the tight end position.  A healthy Jake Delhomme would go a long way to helping all of these players put up better numbers in 2008.

Weaknesses: The Panthers had a very strange year in 2007. They started off 4-2. Steve Smith is their only really scary weapon. He had 35 catches for 496 yards and six touchdowns in those six games. That would have translated to 93 catches for 1,322 yards and 16 touchdowns for the season.
Then Jake Delhomme was injured in his third game of the season and was lost for the year.  Smith had some good games with Vinny Testaverde, but really struggled to get even a few catches with David Carr and Matt Moore.  He finished with just 52 catches for 506 yards and one touchdown in his last 10 games. As a result, the offense scored only 14.4 points over the final 10 games. The result was a 3-7 finish to the season.

The defense, which had been a staple of this team, did not perform very well in 2007.  They finished only 15th in the league in scoring defense. That was tied for their worst season since John Fox took over in 2002. A lot of that had to do with the offense not being able to give them a lead or keep them in good field position. Still, three-time Pro Bowl and two-time NFL All-Pro first team defensive end Julius Peppers has to have more than 2.5 sacks.  He was awful in 2007.  It was his only season other than 2003 where he failed to register double digit sacks. That was a major reason why the Panthers finished so low in the sack department. He is moving to right defensive end with the retirement of Mike Rucker.

DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams teamed up to be the 14th best rushing attack in 2007.  Foster is gone to San Francisco and Williams has yet to show he can be an every down back.  That factored into the Panthers selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick. If he can be healthy by the start of the season the Panthers should be more effective running the ball. The Panthers also added massive tackle Jeff Oath to upgrade the run blocking and pass protection from the tackle spot. Jordan Gross is one of the best in the business. If those two can excel in 2008, that will help the entire offense.

Prediction: The whole key to the season is whether or not Mr. Delhomme can stay healthy and whether Peppers can return to 10-plus sack form. Peppers should have a better year. He is not past his prime and has a lot of years left. 

While Delhomme is not among the elite quarterbacks in the league, he has proven that he can lead this team to victory.  He can throw the ball downfield to Steve Smith and manage the offense. He played very well in the Super Bowl back in 2003 and led the Panthers to a NFC Championship appearance in 2005. The only question with him has been consistency and interceptions, until health crept into the picture the last two seasons.

Without him, Matt Moore is the new starter and, as we saw last year, that isn’t really a good thing.  In his three starts, the Panthers he went 2-1.  However, one of those wins was against the resting Buccaneers to close the season. In the other two starts the Panthers scored 13 points in each contest. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield on a regular basis.

While Delhomme was very healthy from 2003 to 2005, he just hasn’t been the last two seasons.  He missed three starts in 2006 and 13 last year.  He had season-ending surgery to his elbow on his throwing arm and is still not throwing at full strength.  That is not what you want from your starter in June.

The Panthers made some upgrades at wide receiver, running back, and on defense in the draft.  They should be improved. The Saints are a puzzling team and the Buccaneers have their share of issues. I would not be shocked if the Panthers competed for the division.

I considered picking them for the top spot, but I just am not confident that Delhomme will be healthy or effective the entire season, and I don’t think a team can win consistently in the NFL with Moore starting games. I don’t pick teams to do well in June that are going through quarterback health questions. 

See the 2007 Eagles and 2006 Dolphins for reasons why I don’t do that. I look for more of the same for the Panthers in 2008 as they try to make the playoffs and save John Fox’s job. The once hot young coach’s hot seat will get even hotter if the Panthers miss the playoffs.

Carolina’s Record: 7-9 – NFC South third Place; No Playoffs 

Atlanta Falcons

'07 Record: 4-12
Points Scored: 259 (29th)
Points Allowed: 414 (29th)
Playoff Result: No Playoffs
2008 Strength of Schedule:120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Falcons are a team that is in complete rebuilding mode.  When Michael Vick pleaded guilty to federal dog fighting charges, the face of their franchise was stripped from them.  Bobby Petrino was in his first year coaching and was not able to handle the transition from the college game to the pro game with that bombshell.

The result was a 3-10 record before he resigned.  Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith has been entrusted to get this franchise back on track.

The Falcons had a number of good parts last season. Roddy White broke out in his third season for 83 catches, 1,202 yards, and six touchdowns. Considering his quarterback cast, it was a very productive year. Jerious Norwood looked impressive at times, and has a lot of big play potential.  He had 103 carries for 603 yards and one rushing touchdown, while adding 277 receiving yards. 

Even though Warrick Dunn has returned to Tampa Bay, Norwood will not be the number one guy in 2008. Michael Turner was the prized free agent the Falcons signed in free agency. After backing up LaDainian Tomlinson for four seasons, it is his time to be the number one guy. The two will form a very good running back duo.

The defense was not very good in 2007, but a few players did stand out. John Abraham was able to tally 10 sacks. Keith Brooking is still a very under-appreciated linebacker. Chris Houston is a young cornerback that the Falcons hope will develop into a starter now that Hall is a Raider.

Jason Elam was a big signing on special teams. Morton Anderson was reliable, but not from long range.  Elam will give them better production on long field goals and the kickoff game. He is a clutch kicker with the game on the line and could help the Falcons steal a couple close games.

Weaknesses: The Falcons really bottomed out last season. They ranked 29th in both scoring offense and defense. They were 23rd in offensive yards gained, and 29th in defensive yards allowed. While they had some players that gave good individual contributions, it didn’t result in a good showing for the team.

I really believe that Bobby Petrino was a large part of the problem. He did not connect well with his players and obviously did not want to be there. His fights with Hall were well documented. I thought his exit to Arkansas the night after a tough Monday Night loss was gutless. Mike Smith should be a much better hire and is much more disciplined. He should be able to take this team forward.

Matt Ryan was a huge draft pick. He gives the Falcons fans something to hope for. Michael Vick did give the Falcons a lot of good years and his legal problems should not diminish that.  However, the Falcons have to move on and Matt Ryan has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the Falcons need now more than ever.

It will be interesting to see if they throw him in the fire now or wait until 2009. My guess is that Chris Redman or Joey Harrington could start the season and that by the middle of the year, Ryan will be the number one guy. However, I could also see where the Falcons throw the youngster into the fire on day one. 

Ryan is signed, so he will be at training camp on day one. This won't be a JaMarcus Russell situation from last year where the Raiders had not choice but to sit the September arrival most of the season.  How Ryan does in training camp will go a long way to determining his opening day status.  Either way, it is going to hamper the Falcons from joining the top passing offenses in 2008. This is a rebuilding year and the Falcons must accept that.

The Falcons improved their offensive line by drafting Sam Baker in the first round. He should help the Falcons continue to upgrade the offensive line.  hey also added Harry Douglas to give their QBs another target on offense.
On defense they added Curtis Lofton to upgrade their linebacker corp. In the secondary they added Chevis Jaskson and Thomas DeCoud.  The Falcons are trying to retool a defense that had ranked in the middle of the NFL over the three seasons prior to 2007. The first round was geared to offense, with some of their other picks going to upgrade the defense.

Prediction: I like what the Falcons did this off-season. I thought Matt Ryan was a solid pick. I like the Michael Turner signing. I like that they brought in Jason Elam. The division is not very strong and they have an easy schedule based on last year’s results. That said it is very hard to win in this league with a rookie quarterback. Even if Harrington or Redman starts the season neither has proven they can win week in and week out in the NFL.

The key for the Falcons will be a fast start. They get Detroit, Tampa, Kansas City, and Carolina to open the season.  The rest of the schedule is a mix of easier teams like Oakland, and tougher teams like Green Bay and Philadelphia. They have some tough games at the end of November and beginning of December, which include San Diego, at New Orleans, Tampa, and at Minnesota.

All in all, I look for the Falcons to be a more competitive team and not be outscored by over nine points per game.  That probably won't show much in the win column, but it will make for better football in Atlanta. However, I don’t see where they will get much more than five wins in 2008. That doesn’t mean they aren’t on the right track. It means it takes time to rebuild a franchise. If they can develop their young talent and have another good off-season in 2009 they may be able to start thinking about competing for a playoff spot.

Atlanta’s Record:  5-11 – NFC South fourth Place; No Playoffs
 
That is how I see the NFC South playing out in 2008. Next week I will turn my focus to the AFC North. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

Derek Lofland is the NFL director at Fantasy Maniaxs.com