Toronto Raptors Are Running Out of Time to Be Taken Seriously

The Toronto Raptors entered the NBA playoffs seeking validation.

What they have found is more cause for concern and confusion. 

Two consecutive first-round exits were supposedly behind them. This was a different version of those same teams—a more practiced and polished squad that would legitimize a second-place finish out East, with the second semifinals berth in franchise history, presumably followed by the right to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers for an NBA Finals bid.

The Raptors are alive, still within reach of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance; those ambitions have not been squandered. Yet. 

But if it wasn't clear before, during a near-implosion in the first round against the thought-to-be-inferior Indiana Pacers, it's transparently evident now, after Tuesday night's Game 1 home loss to the Miami Heat: Toronto is running out of time for any of its past regular-season claims (from this year or previously) to matter at all. Another failure could trigger its offseason undoing.

Familiar Problems

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

For most of the first round, the Raptors were not the best team on the floor.

Toronto advanced by the skin of its teeth, needing all seven games, after being outscored by 10 points for the entire series. Indiana held double-digit leads in four of the outings, and neither DeMar DeRozan nor Kyle Lowry finished the set shooting even 32 percent from floor.

Any hopes for a distinct about-face versus Miami were quickly dashed. The Raptors, despite leading at numerous stages, once again trailed by double digits, forcing overtime only after Lowry's half-court heave found nylon:

Even that miracle comes with an asterisk. Toronto put itself in a situation that demanded it make NBA playoff history just to have a puncher's chance of protecting home-court advantage, per ESPN Stats & Info:

That Lowry was the one to temporarily save the day made absolutely no sense. He went 3-of-13 from the floor in Game 1 and is now shooting 30.6 percent in the postseason, including an eye-eviscerating 16 percent from downtown.

Most of Lowry's caroming looks are actually high quality. More than 55 percent of his shots in these playoffs have been open or wide open; he's just drilling less than 32 percent of those bunnies after a regular season in which he was positively terrifying when left alone:

Lowry...	FG% on Open/Wide-Open Looks	3P% on Open/Wide-Open Looks
Regular Season	44.7%	42.0%
Playoffs	31.7%	21.1%

It's fair to suggest that he will eventually find his rhythm. His struggles are not the byproduct of defensive ingenuity, and he stayed behind after Game 1 to work on his shooting, per Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star.

But Lowry, dating back to the regular season, hasn't shot better than 40 percent in a game since April 5. And the Raptors don't have the luxury of waiting for him to come around, not when his superstar running mate is matching his futility.

DeRozan's 9-of-22 shooting performance on Tuesday was actually an improvement over his recent contributions. He is barely shooting 33 percent overall, doesn't get to the foul line as often and, according to Basketball-Reference.com, has earned himself a piece of hapless NBA history, alongside his backcourt buddy:

More than 65 percent of DeRozan's shot attempts are contested, so unlike Lowry, he cannot receive the benefit of the doubt. And when he isn't getting buckets or reaching the charity stripe with insane frequency, he holds next to no value for Toronto.

Teammates are shooting just over 31 percent off his passes, many of them last-resort dishes that are coming in traffic and/or late in the shot clock; opponents are putting down an absurd 45.8 percent of their long balls against him; and despite leading the Raptors in postseason usage, DeRozan ranks dead last on the team in win shares.

There is no way around DeRozan and Lowry's declines. Defenses have allowed Cory Joseph, Jonas Valanciunas and, at times, Norman Powell to torch them without disastrous consequence.

And Toronto's defense, while impressively steady thanks to Bismack Biyombo, DeMarre Carroll, Lowry and Powell, isn't nearly stingy enough to be the sole means through which this team clinches an Eastern Conference Finals cameo.

Searching for Solutions 

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Aside from banking on one or both of DeRozan and Lowry regaining their mojos, the Raptors only have so many options at their disposal.

Head coach Dwane Casey tried combating the Heat's spacey lineups with a different starting five, swapping out Patrick Patterson for Powell while shifting Carroll to the 4 spot. That group was dead even in 16 minutes of action but never established any offensive traction. 

Miami, like Indiana, is content to let Valanciunas fire up jumpers or attack the rim as it polices the three-point line. Toronto's starting five combined for a 1-of-7 outside showing during its time on the court, and the Raptors, one of the sweetest shooting squads in the regular season, finished 5-of-21 from long range overall.

Increasing Joseph's workload looms as an especially intriguing Hail Mary. Giving him some of DeRozan and Lowry's minutes offers the Raptors a more efficient shot-maker to run the offense without sacrificing anything on the defensive end.

Cutting the playing time of two All-Stars does, of course, run the risk of being counterproductive. The last thing Casey wants to do is further shake the confidence of Toronto's two most important players. The DeRozan-Joseph pairing has proved to be offensive and defensive suicide anyway.

But the Joseph-Lowry duo is a different story:

	MP	Off. Rtg.	Def. Rtg.	Net Rtg.
DeRozan-Lowry	243	99.2	102.5	-3.3
DeRozan-Joseph	103	88.6	107.9	-19.2
Joseph-Lowry	111	107.1	100.0	7.1

The Raptors are a plus-7.1 points per 100 possessions with their two point guards on the floor. Their sample size is significant for this time of the year, and together, they incite more ball movement and open up additional lanes.

Though Lowry's shooting percentages don't improve beside Joseph, he gets to spend more time off the ball as a spot-up attempter, a role that's more conducive to ending his slump. And at this point, with the way DeRozan is defending, either Joseph or Lowry is better off guarding Miami's 2-guards.

Fending Off Demolition

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

The NBA is accustomed to doubting the Raptors after their previous two playoff exits, and that's left this team to ferry the burden of proof. Their franchise-best regular season means nothing; their stars are not assured of shining in time to salvage this latest push.

Most already expect the Heat to earn entry into the Eastern Conference Finals. And Toronto, per the Miami Herald's Ethan J. Skolnick, knows it:

General manager Masai Ujiri won't holster his stick of dynamite just because they lucked out of another monstrous first-round letdown.

Flaming out in the second round would be a massive disappointment unto itself. It would be confirmation that this is their ceiling. And with DeRozan prepping for free agency, where max-contract offers will await him, Toronto won't be able to justify reinvesting in a nucleus that obviously isn't good enough.

Not even Lowry will be safe from Ujiri's swinging ax. He is 30 years old, will be a free agent in 2017 (player option) and has never shot better than 40.4 percent for an entire playoff campaign.

So when these Raptors enter Game 2, they won't only be seeking respect. Nor will they just be playing to avoid a 2-0 series grave that has, according to WhoWins.com, portended postseason doom for more than 94 percent of its diggers.

This team, this exact Raptors core, is fighting for the right to stay together, past Game 2, into the Eastern Conference Finals and beyond this summer.

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.