Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Sleepers with Most Win, Place and Show Potential

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, horse players love to play long shots and have often profited from them.

While American Pharoah won the Run for the Roses last year and California Chrome won the 2014 Kentucky Derby as favorites, long shots have fared well at Churchill Downs over the years.

The average win payout on a $2 bet between 2000 and 2012 was $23, or better than 10-1, according to SBNation.com.

Those who are looking for sleepers should have a good opportunity Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. Here's a look at three horses who should have a chance to get on the board—and perhaps win the race—and reward their backers with big payoffs.

Horse	Trainer	Odds
Nyquist	Doug O'Neill	10-3
Exaggerator	J. Keith Desormeaux	8-1
Mohaymen	Kiaran McLaughlin	8-1
Gun Runner	Steven Asmussen	10-1
Brody's Cause	Dale Romans	12-1
Destin	Todd Pletcher	14-1
Mo Tom	Thomas Amoss	16-1
Suddenbreakingnews	Donnie Von Hemel	16-1
Mor Spirit	Bob Baffert	18-1
Outwork	Todd Pletcher	20-1
Creator	Steven Asmussen	20-1
Danzing Candy	Clifford Sise Jr.	25-1
Shagaf	Chad Brown	25-1
My Man Sam	Chad Brown	25-1
Swipe	J. Keith Desormeaux	33-1

Suddenbreakingnews

Suddenbreakingnews has to be given strong consideration in the Run for the Roses because this colt has been quite consistent. He has three wins and four second-place finishes in eight starts and has excellent bloodlines.

Suddenbreakingnews's sire is Mineshaft, who was named the 2003 Horse of the Year and also won at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles. Suddenbreakingnews won the Southwest Stakes by 2 ¾ lengths but followed that with troubled trips in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.

Suddenbreakingnews is a powerful stretch runner and is likely to be back in the pack well into the race. That means he must have a clean run once he begins his move. If he can accelerate at the right point and does not face significant traffic, he could pick up the leaders down the stretch and possibly get to the winner's circle.

Suddenbreakingnews is a 16-1 shot, according to Odds Shark, and that would lead to a bountiful payoff for his backers.

My Man Sam

My Man Sam is somewhat lightly raced, as he has been to the post just four times. He has one victory and two second-place finishes to his credit, and he is a 25-1 shot six days before the Kentucky Derby.

My Man Sam finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes April 9, despite drawing a post on the far outside. He rallied in a powerful manner and finished just behind Brody's Cause, which earned him quite a bit of respect.

My Man Sam is not just a stretch runner—he is a deep stretch runner. He can turn it on quite a bit in the final 200 yards and pass horses who have just made strong moves. However, the danger with this kind of horse in the Run for the Roses is getting caught in traffic and not having a chance to make that best move before it's too late.

Creator

Creator has a good chance to provide an excellent payoff for his backers.

This Steve Asmussen-trained colt has odds of 20-1 at this point, and he has two victories, four second-place finishes and one third-place finish in eight career starts.

Creator won the Arkansas Derby in impressive fashion in his last race. He was left in the gate at the start, but jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. did not panic and expertly guided him to the victory. 

Creator obviously does not want that to happen in the Kentucky Derby, but the fact that he won under such circumstances could mean he is a special horse.

Creator is also a closer, but he doesn't want to be too far back when he makes his move because of the traffic that is so frequent in the Derby.

Asmussen believes Creator has a chance to make a strong showing. “Creator is coming around at the right time,” Asmussen told Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal. “I really like his focus and how professional he’s been the last two to three weeks. We’re just trying to keep him in the rhythm that he was in between the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby."