Amir Khan's Blueprint to Pull off a Shocking Upset over Canelo Alvarez
Give Amir Khan credit. On May 7 in Las Vegas, he's going to try to do something even he, perhaps the brashest, cockiest fighter in all of boxing, never imagined he'd do.
Khan, a former alphabet titleholder at 140 pounds—someone who has never even been the true champion in any of his more natural weight classes—is endeavoring to become the lineal middleweight champion of the world by taking on Saul Alvarez Saturday at 9 pm E.T. on HBO pay-per-view.
"I did think that probably one day I'd move up to light middleweight," Khan told Bleacher Report. "But I never thought the middleweight championship is what I'd be fighting for. But look, nowadays in the sport of boxing, you just don't know what can happen next, and I'm glad that this is one of those fights that is happening."
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I guess that's one thing. For all the fights in boxing that fans want to see but never happen, at least this one—albeit not one many saw coming—is going to happen.
It's easy for fighters to say they want to take on the best competition available. Pretty much everyone in the sport does that. But actually doing something about it is a whole other matter.
Khan deserves some serious respect. By taking this dangerous bout against Alvarez, particularly after proposed bouts against smaller and departing stars Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao fell by the wayside (despite the Brit's best efforts), Khan is essentially holding his hand high up in the air and screaming, "ME! I'm the next great boxing champion to do something spectacular."
As much as I've roasted the fight and the people behind the scenes who put it together, Khan should be commended for his courage.
It's said that fortune favors the bold. That's not typically the case in boxing, where discretion is still the better part of valor. But when the boldest practitioners of the sweet science do succeed in their chosen endeavor, it is long remembered.
At the onset of the 20th century, before boxing was modernized by things like safety rules and padded gloves, the great John L. Sullivan would walk into any bar in any town in any part of the world and throw down the gauntlet.
"I can lick any son of a bitch in the house!" the barrel-chested Sullivan would exclaim. Then the spirited Irish-American would do it.
Three decades later, a hobo from the tiny Colorado mining community of Manassa would pull similar stunts.
Wiry but fierce grizzly bear Jack Dempsey traveled around state to state as a hobo—the roughest and toughest of such men who didn't do impotent things such as riding inside the rail cars like the sane hobos but chose rather to travel while clinging to the thin slats of metal beneath the cars.
And you guessed it: On any given day in any given town, Dempsey would walk into the local bar and offer to beat up the biggest man in the room.
And he'd do it.
Boxing lore is filled with such amazing stories, and Khan is hoping to add his name to the list, albeit in a more modern and civilized way.
In recent times, perhaps, Khan's attempt at snatching the middleweight championship away from Alvarez would be akin to Pacquiao jumping up to welterweight to face Oscar De La Hoya in 2008 or Miguel Cotto's middleweight rumble with Sergio Martinez in 2014.
Except Pacquiao and Cotto, of course, beat up fighters who were nearing retirement. Khan, age 29, is instead hunting down a 25-year-old Alvarez who is likely to be at his peak physical condition.
"I feel strong. I feel happy. And I can't wait to step in the ring to fight Canelo," Khan said.
But how can he win such a fight? Easy. It's just two simple steps:
- Have a really good plan.
- Execute it really well.
Bleacher Report can only help with the first part.
Khan Will Need to Move Around the Ring, Attack from Different Angles and Keep Alvarez Guessing
Like most good punchers, Alvarez is a much better fighter when he can set his feet on offense. It's why he looked so befuddled in his 2013 loss to Mayweather and why the crafty Erislandy Lara gave him such a tough fight a year later.
Khan is probably not quite as skilled a boxer as either Mayweather or Lara, but he has the physical attributes to be so.
Khan's long arms (71-inch reach per Boxrec) and absurd speed, particularly when punching, are the chief attributes that might help him pull off the upset.
You know what? More power than he's shown in previous fights wouldn't hurt either.
"I've always had decent power," Khan said. "I think at this weight I think it's given me a little bit more power and strength. I should be a better all-around fighter—more stability and strength—because I'm not going to be killing myself making weight."
Volume punching, something Khan considers himself "decent" at, will also be important on fight night. But even more imperative will be varying the cadence and tempo of those punches. The exact pattern of his combinations should never be something Alvarez can see coming.
Why? Because to have a real chance at winning, Khan has to keep the slower-footed Alvarez moving around the ring and off-balance for the majority of the fight.
If every round is a dance, Khan should be the one leading Alvarez around the dance floor.
Look no further than what Mayweather did against Pacquiao last year. Not only was Mayweather the one controlling the pace of the fight pretty much every round, but he also acutely chose times in the fight to move around the ring in a way that kept Pacquiao from getting any punches off.
It's something akin to a prevent defense in football. He landed his punches, made his mark in the round and then mitigated risk the rest of the way.
If Khan can do that seven or eight times over the course of the 12-round fight, he can be the victor.
Don't Just Fight; Entertain!
When Ray Leonard beat Marvin Hagler in 1987 for the middleweight championship, he probably didn't really fight all that much better than Hagler. If anything, the two all-time greats were evenly matched that night in every part of the bout—except one: entertainment.
Leonard was great at lots of things, but perhaps his best skill was his recognition that boxing judges are just people with personal thoughts and prejudices, and that people are easily swayed by emotion.
Hagler fought like a businessman that night, but Leonard was so much more.
"Yeah, I mean if you look at how he fought against Hagler, it's a very similar fight," Khan said. "It's speed that's going to win the fight. And I also think I have a lot of power to go with the speed. When I hit Canelo with some big shots, he's going to think twice about coming forward."
Leonard had the edge in speed, too, but he also was incredibly timely with his punches. He'd flurry whenever the opportunity presented itself, particularly near the end of close rounds, and he'd showboat when it was safe to do so to show the judges who was in charge.
Truth or fiction doesn't always matter on fight night. If the smaller man looks like the boss, he just might be the boss on the scorecards, too.
Khan's use of tactical volume punching will be critical. He is the faster man, and he will need to fight like it. Not only do punch stats matter in the minds of those watching the fights, but fast punches that land at high velocity are flashy and fun. You can't help but let your eyes draw toward them.
And while Khan won't have the edge in power, he'll still need to throw his weight behind his punches as if he does. Not every fighter is gifted with raw power anyway. Some take down their prey in a different way.
"There are only so many punches he can take," Khan said.
Khan knows the plan. All he needs to do is land one more than Alvarez can take.
Khan Will Need to Employ Better Defense Than He Ever Has
The promotion of this fight has mostly been about Khan's speed versus Alvarez's power.
That's an overly simplistic view of things, and judging by most fight predictions I've read—all of which lean heavily toward Alvarez—it's easy to see why the promoters and television network would want to keep the audience from thinking.
But the truth is the fight isn't as much about speed versus power as it is about Khan's defense versus Alvarez's timing.
And even Khan knows Alvarez isn't the sloth this promotion has made him out to be.
"You know, a lot of people don't think he's fast, but I think he's fast for his bodyweight and for the way he fights and the style he uses. He does have quick hands."
Alvarez is fast enough anyway. His hands are quicker and carry more power than probably both the fighters (Breidis Prescott and Danny Garcia) who have knocked Khan out in prior fights. And let's face it: If Alvarez lands anything close to as many punches as Chris Algieri did against him during Khan's last fight, the Mexican will be celebrating a win.
For Khan, the fight will be all about timing.
Can Khan avoid a big mistake? Will he never get lazy on the inside, the place Alvarez will always have the advantage? Will he be smart enough to hold Alvarez when there is no other option available but skilled enough to make those times few enough for judges not to ding him for it?
Khan has his work cut out.
"It's not going to be an easy fight with Canelo. Canelo is a tough, rugged guy. He has decent speed in his hands, and he's done some beautiful work. He's a solid all-around fighter that punches very hard, so I'll have to be absolutely sure that I'm at my A-game."
Khan knows he will be in the fight of his life. It's one thing to lose focus against the likes of Algieri or Marcos Maidana. It's quite another do it against a man with so much more power.
"I can't make any mistakes against him," Khan said. "One punch can definitely hurt me because he's carrying all that weight and power. I have to make sure I am on my A-game."
Conclusion
Khan sounded calm about the fight. He truly, if not appropriately then at least admirably, believes he will beat Alvarez. If there's any one fighter in boxing who has supreme confidence in his ability to become an all-time great, it's Khan.
But he also knows he's not facing a legitimate middleweight, too. That should give him even more confidence.
Yes, Alvarez will have the distinct size advantage during the fight. But despite the divisional crown he wears—like the two men who have come before him, Cotto and Martinez—Alvarez is more a 154-pounder than a true middleweight. He doesn't need the 160-pound limit. In fact, his last four fights were contracted at 155. So is this one.
"I think this is perfect. It's a great weight for me," Khan said. "I know it's for the middleweight title and that middleweight is 160, but I'm glad the fight was made at 155. I think 160 would be a little bit too much for me."
Most folks think Alvarez is too much for Khan at any weight. He's bigger, and while the two are not shockingly different skill-wise, he seems like the better fighter, too.
But Khan expects to beat Alvarez, and who knows? If he can do all the things listed here, and maybe a few more, he just might be able to do it.
I admit after talking to him one-on-one, the fight has become much more compelling to me than when it was first announced. I came away impressed with Khan's fearlessness as well as the confidence he has in himself headed into the fight. He'll need much of both if he hopes to best Canelo, likely the best fighter Khan will have ever faced.
"I think it's going to be great for fight fans. I'm really, really looking forward to this fight. I've got a big opportunity to prove that I am one of the best fighters in the world."
If Khan follows the blueprint and defeats Alvarez, he will have certainly done that.
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand.
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