Will Chelsea's Cesc Fabregas Be Latest to Wreck Antonio Conte's 4-4-2 Dreams?

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, or perhaps joined Kimmy Schmidt in her Durnsville-based bunker for a time, you’ll be conscious of the fact that as soon as Italy exit UEFA Euro 2016 this summer, Antonio Conte will assume managerial control of Chelsea football club.

Now, for a team with a lot of issues to sort out—as there always is after a Jose Mourinho spell in charge—that’s hardly ideal. And in the fast-paced, globalised football world we live in, many on the internet have attempted to make sense of Conte’s impending to-do list ahead of his arrival in order to quantify the extent of the problems.

John Terry’s future, the Eden Hazard situation, who on earth is going to play at left-back, which goalkeeper could feasibly be the No. 1 come next season...these are issues that can be tackled in some way in the here and now. Educated guesses can be made and information can be sought on exactly how these three storylines—among others—will pan out.

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But there’s one thing we cannot forecast (accurately), and that’s the formation Conte will use. Even monitoring Italy like a hawk this summer won’t reveal much, as the former Juventus boss has changed formations throughout his career in order to suit his players; there’s no guarantee what fits the Azzurri will fit Chelsea in his eyes, and it’s actually pretty likely a new plan will need to be made.

So we trudge back through Conte’s managerial history to look for clues, and one key idea flashes up consistently: Despite being unable to utilise a 4-4-2 in most of his jobs, he has always looked to make it work if possible; he’s a big fan of the system and setup.

Yes, his 3-5-2 is famous for its success in Turin, but he always showed a want to switch to 4-4-2—particularly in the UEFA Champions League—but never managed to make it stick. It was simply that he could not ignore the strength of an Andrea Barzagli-Leonardo Bonucci-Giorgio Chiellini back three.

Five years ago, it would have been eye-popping (in a bad way) to see a foreign coach come to Chelsea and bring with him a system viewed as outdated in England, but post-FIFA World Cup 2014, the 4-4-2 has really picked up steam. Atletico Madrid, Leicester City, Villarreal, Milan and even Watford have used it to (varying) degrees of success in 2015-16, and it is no longer the antiquated formation it once was.

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Really, the use of numbers in describing formations is crude—something Jonathan Wilson, author of Inverting the Pyramid, attests to almost every time he’s embroiled in a discussion over formation labels. It’s about how you execute your strategy, not simply lining up in a different shape, and the likes of Diego Simeone and Claudio Ranieri have shown it can be a wild success in the modern game if applied appropriately.

Conte used a 4-4-2 with Bari and Siena and has tried to introduce it at both jobs since he left Tuscany, but the Barzagli-Bonucci-Chiellini trio were ever-present for both Juve and the Azzurri.

There was also a distinct lack of wing talent in Turin, while Conte knew that the best way to unleash the power and drive of Arturo Vidal while simultaneously resting on Andrea Pirlo’s magic boots was to use them in a midfield three. Hence the 3-5-2.

Chelsea will be a fresh slate and, Conte may feel, can be moulded how he wants. He has the wing talents in Hazard and Pedro to actually successfully utilise wide play higher up, the short-fall of centre-backs means three at the back is unlikely, and almost every sign points to the ability to play how he has always wanted with this Blues side...except for when it comes to central midfield.

It should not surprise to see transfer links emerging with the likes of Radja Nainggolan and Miralem Pjanic, courtesy of Bleacher Report Insider Dean Jones in the video above. The two Roma stars represent all-action No. 8s who would fit right in in central midfield in a 4-4-2.

Pjanic boasts spark mixed with work rate and high football IQ, while Nainggolan is a rampaging, box-to-box presence who eats up ground like a starved animal on the Serengeti plains. The same, it must be said, cannot be stated for the likes of Cesc Fabregas and Nemanja Matic.

It’s Fabregas that’s the big concern, as while he can flash game-breaking potential and last week completed arguably his best-ever performance in a Chelsea shirt, managing three assists against Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium, he’s a player that has to be accommodated for; you have to play players around him to make up for his shortcomings so his immense strengths can shine.

Put simply, there is no room for Fabregas in a 4-4-2; he cannot be trusted in the centre with just one partner—even if it was Claude Makelele.

The Spaniard's inability to track and mark, in addition to his unwillingness to effectively protect his back line, would be a source of constant angst and irritation to Conte. Even Mourinho began pushing him forward into the No. 10 role (particularly in Champions League games) in an attempt to prevent his lapses costing the team.

Matic, too, despite a minor renaissance in the game against AFCB, would be a concern in a 4-4-2 in his current state—particularly alongside Cesc. The two looked extremely fragile in the early stages of the season, allowing plenty of space for opponents to use and failing to track threatening runs from midfielders.

The home loss to Southampton in October felt very much a case in point, as Sadio Mane ran riot and Cesc outright refused to stay with Steven Davis in the run-up to his goal.

As good as they are (or can be) individually, Matic seems unlikely to prosper as a No. 8 in a 4-4-2 (he arrived and initially excelled as a No. 6, after all), and Cesc has only ever really been a success in a three-man midfield. Despite his obvious excellence, creativity and genius touch, he’d be a liability for too much of the game to play there.

This gives Conte another headache (just add it to the pile). If he wants to play his favoured formation, he’ll need a new central midfield axis and may even have to sell Cesc—as strange as that sounds, particularly off the back of a performance where he dominated—else another deviation from preference becomes necessary.

Roadblock after roadblock has come down in front Conte's attempts to do what is perceived to be what he actually wants to do, and Cesc may be the latest one. With the club unlikely to sell him (read: unlikely to find a buyer given his cost), it could force the Italian's hand into picking yet another workaround system.

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