Who Will Be the Sprint Cup’s Next First-time Winner?

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Martin Truex Jr grabbed his first and, so far only, Cup Series win at Dover Downs in 2007.  By my count, he was one of three drivers to accomplish that feat last year - Casey Mears and Clint Bowyer were the others.

I’m looking at the line up for this week’s tilt at the Monster Mile and wondering who will be the next first timer.  The answer is not obvious.  David Ragan would seem the best bet.  He drives for one of the major teams, as did all of 2007’s first time winners.  Ragan has lately been running up front and looked like a contender at Charlotte.  But who else.  Is there anybody else?

Before his injury, Dario Franchitti would have been my pick if only because of the two road courses where he should be one of the contenders.  His lost seat-time may not hurt his chances at Sonoma and the Glen, but it steepens the learning curve elsewhere.

Fellow Dodger Reed Sorenson looked strong coming out of Daytona.  Since then though, his team has been a big part of Ganassi’s funk.  The stirring of that pot by Chip doesn’t bode well for the Target car.

Dave Blaney is the only non winner in a Toyota who seems a candidate.  A J Allmendinger didn’t convince me at Lowes.  David Reutimann looks like a journeyman.

Who do you like in a Chevy?  All of 2007’s virgin winners were Bowtie Boys.  But who’s left?  Regan Smith?  Too soon and not enough chances.  Same for Aric Almirola.  The Haas CNC teams probably killed their chances by losing crew and car chiefs for six races.

No, the next winner looks to be a Ford man.  If not Ragan then maybe one of the Yates guys.  Travis Kvapil looks primed.