The New York Jets' Strong Stance with Ryan Fitzpatrick Is Right Decision

The NFL free-agency period quickly died down weeks ago as top players were plucked off the open market. There are still some familiar names available who can make an impact for the right team in the proper role. One of the best remaining unrestricted free agents is New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The 33-year-old journeyman enjoyed the best season of his career in 2015 under offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. His first year with the Jets was also the longest-winning season on his resume. Considering the Jets were just one victory away from earning the second AFC Wild Card spot, it seemed inevitable the two sides would come to a contract agreement to ensure his return.

Almost one full month into free agency, the Jets have continued their strong stance with Fitzpatrick in negotiations. According to Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole, the Jets are willing to explore other options at quarterback unless Fitzpatrick reduces his asking price of $16 million a year. After looking back at Fitzpatrick’s 2015 season and considering the Jets' current state, I believe this is the right way to approach the situation.

There are three major aspects of the Jets and Fitzpatrick negotiation. The first is whether the on-field play is good enough to warrant the desired money. Next, can the Jets even make the money work? Finally, what are the other options available who could supplant Fitzpatrick?

Let’s dive into those issues.

On-Field Play

The raw numbers for Fitzpatrick in 2016 are impressive. He failed to complete 60 percent of his passes for the first time since 2010 but had a career-high in yards (3,905) and touchdowns (31), as well as the second-best passer rating (88). He instantly built chemistry with receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and benefitted from the NFL’s 10th-best rushing attack.

His fit in a Chan Gailey offense wasn’t a surprise, as Gailey’s found success with middling passers like Kordell Stewart, Jay Fiedler, Tyler Thigpen and Fitzpatrick previously in 2011. His effectiveness in his second stint with the offensive innovator was even better, as the NFL has become more favorable for passers and the Jets have an excellent supporting cast.

The Jets didn’t ask Fitzpatrick to do much in their offense because he simply cannot execute at more than an average level. While his touchdown total is impressive, a deeper look shows many of his scoring plays were simple enough that any NFL quarterback should be able to complete them.

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An 8-game sample of Ryan Fitzpatrick's accuracy in 2015 pic.twitter.com/CGrKwKfjo1

— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) March 29, 2016"

I took an eight-game sample against the Jets' top opponents to chart Fitzpatrick’s accuracy and pass-distribution tendencies, and the results were disturbingly poor. Only 63 percent of his 268 passing attempts could have been caught, which reinforces how inconsistent he is at performing even elementary throws. He had some shining moments that justify his status as a starter, but the roller-coaster nature of his play still has too many low valleys.

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Fitzpatrick is a reckless gunslinger with little regard of his surroundings. This can pay off with clutch scrambles and downfield throws, but it also leads to costly turnovers. In just eight games, Fitzpatrick had nine interceptions and another five that should have been if not dropped by defenders.

His weak arm often shows in tight passing lanes and downfield throws. Fitzpatrick did suffer from an inordinate number of drops downfield, but his poor velocity is also to blame for this. His throws seem overly difficult to read midair because they die out so quickly. Below is one of five examples I found of a deep ball that was limp and led to a drop.

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To put his accuracy in comparison, we can look at two other quarterbacks I’ve recently charted in a similar fashion. Ryan Tannehill threw a catchable pass on 76 percent of attempts, and Kirk Cousins was at 72 percent. Each to this point in their respective careers has been average, but they at least show encouraging signs with good accuracy.

Of course, Fitzpatrick has his redeeming qualities. He’s willing to give his playmakers the chance to make a play. This fits perfectly with Brandon Marshall, who often bailed him out of bad decisions. Marshall was dominant throughout the season, and a different quarterback may not trust him as much.

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He’s been the best Jets quarterback since Chad Pennington last played for the franchise in the mid-2000s. That counts for something, especially as we go through potential options to replace Fitzpatrick. His comfort with the system and team is also a positive, although it has to be highly concerning that 2015 was his best season, because it was still subpar compared to his peers.

Cap Crunch

The New York Jets splurged last offseason to help upgrade their roster for a playoff push in Year 1 of Todd Bowles' tenure as head coach. Major commitments such as cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Buster Skrine and safety Marcus Gilchrist helped beef up a lacking secondary unit. The cost is significantly weighing on the Jets’ salary cap at this point, with a total cap hit over $30 million, per Over The Cap.

Also eating up the Jets' cap are the huge cap numbers of defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson’s franchise tag ($15.7 million), left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson ($14.1 million) and center Nick Mangold’s deal ($8.6 million). While each of these contracts can be terminated for no penalty, the Jets have just $3 million in open cap room right now. The 2016 rookie class will require more room than that, let alone a new deal for Fitzpatrick.

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The Jets have quite a bit of flexibility with those three contracts because of the bonus money that can be converted via a restructure or extension. But Ferguson and Mangold’s advanced age and declining effectiveness is a strong deterrent for guaranteeing their tenure in New York through 2017. Moving bonus money into guaranteed salary would provide short-term help for long-term sacrifice.

That wouldn’t be such an issue if the Jets had a promising cap situation in 2017. Before a Wilkerson, Fitzpatrick or Sheldon Richardson extension or factoring in the 2016 and 2017 NFL draft classes, the Jets are projected to have $36 million in open room next year. Every dollar the Jets save this year will be rolled over into next year.

If the Jets can develop young talent effectively this season and avoid redoing veteran contracts, their 2017 cap space could easily swell to $80 million. Releasing Ferguson, Mangold, Skrine, Gilchrist and linebacker David Harris would accomplish that. It’s unrealistic to think all of those starters get released at once, since it’s hard to find five starters in one offseason.

So the Jets need to keep long-term flexibility as much as possible to ensure spending won’t cost them a premier talent. Fitzpatrick’s desire for $16 million a year does fall in line with his talent level and age, since he’d be among the lowest-paid starters who are not on a rookie contract. Only Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor, new Cleveland Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Case Keenum are earning less, and the latter two lack a guaranteed starting job.

Other Options

This is the most interesting aspect of negotiations for each party. Neither has many legitimate threat options. The Jets have taken this hard stance in part because Fitzpatrick simply lacks suitors.

Considering his age and the needs of each depth chart around the league, it’s conceivable the Denver Broncos are the only other threat to sign Fitzpatrick. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Broncos did reach out to Fitzpatrick over two weeks ago but were turned off by his asking price.

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Per Jason La Canfora of Yahoo Sports, the Broncos are the most aggressive team after San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. This perhaps signifies the Broncos closing the book on signing Fitzpatrick, and making a move for Kaepernick certainly takes them out of the bidding.

Fitzpatrick has no realistic opportunity to leave the Jets for a better situation and the money he wants. Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan seemingly knows this and has scoffed at his contract demands to this point. But Maccagnan lacks great alternatives as well.

Kaepernick is younger—but also similarly volatile in his play—costs what Fitzpatrick wants this year with a $15.8 million cap number and will cost a draft pick to acquire. Trading for him doesn’t solve any long-term issues for the team.

In-house backup Geno Smith has done nothing to earn playing time since joining the team. The former second-round pick was also from the previous regime, so they have zero loyalty to him. 2015 third-round pick Bryce Petty was a massive project out of Baylor and was a surprising pick at the time.

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The draft is the only potential answer, and the Jets must consider investing in a quarterback regardless of Fitzpatrick being on the roster. Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch would be an excellent candidate to draft and groom for 2017 if he’s available when the Jets are on the clock. Mid-round options like Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott or Ohio State’s Cardale Jones could compete as long-term options with Petty if the Jets hold him in higher regard than I do.

While the Jets need a better option than Fitzpatrick, there’s simply not one easily attainable for 2016. He played decently enough to earn another contract but the team’s margin for error is very small with him under center. A higher-upside but lower-floor player, which could be a rookie or even Smith, may fall flat on their face, but Fitzpatrick offers a safe—but limited—alternative.

Ideally the Jets would be aggressive in acquiring another quarterback if possible and move on from Fitzpatrick. Saving the $16 million in cap space for 2017 is worth the gamble of playing a younger quarterback. But coaches and front-office personnel also want to keep their jobs long-term, and such a bold move could shorten their leashes with ownership.

Their strong stance with Fitzpatrick has been the right decision thus far and should eventually weaken as both parties see how they’d benefit by pairing up one more time.

All stats used are from sports-reference.com. 

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

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