2016 NBA Mock Draft: First-Round Projections, Sweet 16 Edition
With only 16 teams left in the NCAA tournament, NBA draft hype season is well underway. Prospects like Ben Simmons and the entire Kentucky Wildcats team (!) are already declaring for the draft.
But plenty of quality prospects remain in action for scouts to evaluate over the next few weeks, including a potential No. 1 overall pick, the Duke Blue Devils' Brandon Ingram.
The Oklahoma Sooners' Buddy Hield isn't finished either. He continues to make a case for himself as a possible top-five selection, which seemed like an impossible feat just six months ago.
Elsewhere, the biggest riser over the past month spent this past week in the NIT. The Washington Huskies have a pair of young studs turning pro, and one may be destined for the lottery.
The draft order is based on current NBA standings and accounts for all previously made trades. Players are projected based on their college/international production, proven skill set, future potential and how they might fit with specific teams.
1. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons (LSU, PF, Freshman)
There is a decent chance some teams dropped Simmons from the top spot on their boards. I'm not convinced the Sixers are one of them.
Forget about fit—Philly will select the top talent, regardless of what position or style he occupies. Simmons' playmaking, passing and athleticism for a 6'10", 240-pounder is just too enticing.
The Sixers will give Ingram a look, but superior versatility could make management view Simmons as the safer No. 1 option. Given the uncertainty surrounding Jahlil Okafor's defense, Joel Embiid's health and Nerlens Noel's offense, there could be pressure to play it safe.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram (Duke, SF, Freshman)
The Lakers will do their due diligence with Croatia's Dragan Bender, but at No. 2, I don't see them walking away without Simmons or Ingram. They'll take whichever prospect the Sixers don't and ultimately feel good about whomever they get.
Ingram looks like an ideal fit between the Lakers' impressive young backcourt and Julius Randle.
He opened the NCAA tournament with a 20-point game against UNC Wilmington and a 25-point effort against Yale. Facing top seed Oregon in the Sweet 16, Ingram should have the chance to strengthen his draft case with another impact performance.
3. Phoenix Suns: Dragan Bender (Croatia, PF/C, 1997)
Bender created some buzz this week overseas with a productive outing in front of NBA executives, most notably Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak, per ESPN's Baxter Holmes. Considering it marked the fifth time Bender received at least 20 minutes in a game all season, his 11 points and five boards were notable.
He knocked down three triples and raised his three-point mark to 39.7 percent on the year. Bender's shooting stroke—along with his mobility, handle, one-handed touch and basketball IQ—highlight NBA-friendly versatility.
The Suns don't need to worry about filling a position. Kentucky's Jamal Murray and California's Jaylen Brown will get looks, but I suspect Phoenix will swing for the fences. Bender offers the higher home run ceiling.
4. Boston Celtics (via Nets): Jamal Murray (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
Based on recent history, general manager Danny Ainge seems to ignore everything but talent in the draft. Last year, he took Terry Rozier with the No. 16 pick despite already having Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart.
At No. 4, it seems reasonable to think Ainge can view Murray as the top prospect on the board. And considering the team ranks No. 26 in three-point shooting, there may be extra incentive to pull the trigger.
Though not bouncy or explosive, he compensates with the ability to make difficult shots off screens and improvisation. Murray sank 113 threes at a 40.8 percent clip and scored 20 points a game.
He'll need to work on his shot selection, but Murray should be capable of injecting Boston's lineup with immediate firepower and shot-making.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves: Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
Hield's legend continues to grow, following his 29-point second half that helped Oklahoma advance past VCU. He's as dangerous of a shot-maker as you'll see in college, and only one team in the league has a worse catch-and-shoot three-point percentage than Minnesota, per NBA.com.
Hield buries opponents with deep spot-ups, jumpers off screens, step-backs and pull-ups. Despite being the focal point of every opposing defense, he manages to get off looks using smart movement and pump fakes.
The question with Hield is what he offers on nights when his shooting stroke is off.
At 6'4", he's a tad undersized for a non-playmaking 2-guard. But without any other can't-miss options at No. 5, these details shouldn't scare off the Timberwolves. They need a shooter, and Hield is as accurate as they come.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Jaylen Brown (California, SF, Freshman)
It wasn't the smoothest season for Brown, who finished with four points and seven turnovers in California's opening-round loss to Hawaii. He clearly has some wrinkles to iron out in his perimeter game and ball-handling.
But you can't teach Brown's 6'7", 225-pound size, length or explosive athleticism. At 19 years old, he's flashed enough skills to suggest his jumper and shot creativity should improve.
Brown averaged 14.6 points per game and 9.2 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes as a freshman. His game is all about putting pressure on the rim, whether it's off drives or transition opportunities.
7. Sacramento Kings: Kris Dunn (Providence, PG, Junior)
Given the Kings' record with Rajon Rondo, there won't be a point in overpaying to keep him. They'll pull the trigger on Dunn, a long-term replacement and arguably the top talent on the board.
He just capped off another convincing season with 29 points against North Carolina in his final game for Providence. Dunn finished third in national assist percentage and fifth in steals per game, and he shot a career-best 37.2 percent from three.
He'll fit right into the pros with 6'4" size, long arms and explosive change-of-direction quickness; NBA guards will have trouble containing him off the dribble from day one.
8. Denver Nuggets (via Knicks): Ivan Rabb (California, PF, Freshman)
Rabb finished the year strong and should only continue to rise from here. His physical tools and athleticism will ultimately suit him well during the NBA combine and workouts.
He also showed enough on the floor to warrant top-10 consideration. Rabb wasn't used much in California's offense (20 percent usage) yet still managed to stay consistent and productive, averaging 17.5 points and 11.9 boards per 40 minutes on 61.5 percent shooting.
He's flashed back-to-the-basket scoring ability over either shoulder, as well as face-up quickness and a promising mid-range jumper. And with size, bounce, a nose for the ball and competitive edge, his strong rebounding rate seems likely to translate.
With a roster full of young prospects, the Nuggets won't be looking to fill a specific need. They'll value Rabb as the best player available.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Nuggets): Marquese Chriss (Washington, PF, Freshman)
Chriss' season is complete following Washington's loss to San Diego State in the NIT tournament. He went out with a fairly loud bang, having averaged 20.8 points over his final four games and created a number of highlights in the process.
He's a project whose 6.5 fouls per 40 minutes highlight an underdeveloped sense of the game. But he's arguably the most athletic big in the 2016 field, and at 18 years old, there is enormous room for growth.
Incredible bounce translates to unreal finishes and blocks. And he was surprisingly efficient, having shot 56.8 percent inside the arc and a respectable 35 percent (21 made threes) behind it. Chriss has a fluid, smooth-looking jumper, which seems likely to become a reliable weapon long-term.
ESPN's Jeff Goodman reported Chriss will declare and hire an agent. The Raptors need a power forward, and general manager Masai Ujiri has gambled on upside projects before. Look for Chriss to soar up boards over the next few months.
10. Orlando Magic: Jakob Poeltl (Utah, C, Sophomore)
Poeltl had a terrific sophomore year and exceeded expectations, having raised his scoring average to 17.2 from 9.1—while still shooting 64.6 percent.
Unfortunately, his season ended on a sour note against Gonzaga after he was badly outplayed by Domantas Sabonis.
I'm not sure I'm buying Poeltl as the NBA's next great defensive anchor, but his 7'0" size, mobility, hands and instincts will translate to high-percentage offense and a strong rebounding rate.
11. Milwaukee Bucks: Henry Ellenson (Marquette, PF, Freshman)
Ellenson is arguably the most polished big man in the field, with an inside-out game fit for the pros. Limited athleticism, which may explain his 44.6 percent field-goal clip, raises questions about his ceiling.
But with 6'10" size, coordination and a promising shooting stroke, Ellenson's versatility should help compensate for a lack of explosiveness. He projects as your prototypical stretch 4 in the mold of Nikola Mirotic.
Milwaukee could use another forward behind Jabari Parker, particularly one with three-point range.
12. Utah Jazz: Timothe Luwawu (France, SG/SF, 1995)
According to his agent, three general managers showed up to the BC Mega Leks game last weekend against Buducnost, while David Pick reported almost a dozen teams would be represented.
Luwawu ended up recording 17 points (four threes) and four assists. Having improved his jumper and three-point percentage to 37.2 percent, up from 28.7 percent a year ago, he suddenly seems to offer attractive three-and-D potential.
But he's also averaging 2.8 assists, and though still a work in progress as a one-on-one shot-creator, Luwawu has evolved into more than just a spot-up or catch-and-finish player. Between his 6'7" size, above-the-rim bounce and rapidly developing offensive game, he'll be on "steal watch" over the next few years if he's taken outside the top 10.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards): Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga, PF/C, Sophomore)
Though Sabonis was always known for his energy and competitiveness, his offensive game has really come around. He's led Gonzaga to an appearance in the Sweet 16 after torching Utah's Poeltl with 19 points and 10 boards. This came after Sabonis went for 21 points, 16 rebounds and four assists in the first round against Seton Hall.
He's flashed much-improved footwork, touch (77 percent from the line) and even some range (five made threes).
Phoenix could use another back-to-the-basket scorer and high-activity big man in the middle. A lack of athleticism and length keeps his ceiling in check, but the risk tied to Sabonis seems low.
14. Detroit Pistons: Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, SG, Senior)
Valentine's upside is debatable, but not his fit in the pro game. He made over 100 three-pointers for the second straight year and finished second in the country with a 45.8 assist percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.
I wouldn't bank on his 19.2 points per game carrying over, but at 6'5", 220 pounds, his shooting and passing should translate from the 2-guard position.
Detroit could use some backcourt depth, and Valentine can provide it at both guard positions.
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets): Furkan Korkmaz (Turkey, SG/SF, 1997)
Korkmaz has hit 34 of 73 (46.6 percent) three-pointers between the Turkish League and Euroleague. Coming in, he'd shot at least 40 percent from deep in three of four FIBA tournaments (since 2013) and 42.3 percent a year ago during his first year with Anadolu Efes.
His track record and eye-test results say he's one of the top shooters in the projected 2016 field. He's also a bouncy athlete and big-time transition weapon.
At 18 years old, Korkmaz needs to build up his body and reps overseas. But he'll be an exciting shot-maker for Denver to bring over in a year or two.
16. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks): Taurean Prince (Baylor, SF, Senior)
Prince went for 28 points during Baylor's loss to Yale in the NCAA tournament's first round. The game highlighted his strengths as a shot-maker (four threes) but also exposed some weakness as a shot-creator.
Nonetheless, at 6'8", 220 pounds, he possesses a terrific basketball frame, smooth athleticism and a good-looking jumper. The fact he finished with 35 more assists than he did last year makes it easier to buy Prince's transitioning to a supporting role.
He'll start his NBA career as a three-and-D wing or small-ball stretch 4.
17. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers): Tyler Ulis (Kentucky, PG, Sophomore)
Concerns over Ulis' 5'9" size have suddenly faded. He's just gotten too good with the ball, from his decision-making to his execution.
He'll end his career at Kentucky having scored at least 25 points in three of the team's final four games. Ulis has demonstrated a natural feel for picking his spots as a scorer and distributor, and teams are bound to value his knack for running an offense and setting the table.
It helps that he's a promising shooter with an advanced floater game in the mid-range. If he can hold his own defensively, he can provide value to an NBA rotation. Adding a high-IQ passer to back up an inefficient Emmanuel Mudiay could be a smart move for Denver.
18. Chicago Bulls: Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
Baldwin fell flat over the last month, having shot below 40 percent from the floor in eight of his final nine games. He finished with just nine points during Vanderbilt's blowout loss to Wichita State in the NCAA tournament play-in game.
Still, from an NBA perspective, there is just too much to like about Baldwin's physical tools, open-floor game and shooting stroke, which connected on at least 40 percent of his three-point attempts for the second straight year. Baldwin flashed eye-opening defensive potential, thanks to his 6'3" size, 194-pound frame, enormous 6'10" wingspan and quick feet.
He has work to do on his mid-range game half-court decision-making, but he's potent in transition and a better passer than his assist-to-turnover ratio (5.2 to 2.8) suggests.
19. Indiana Pacers: Malik Beasley (Florida State, SG, Freshman)
Florida State announced Beasley will declare for the draft after a surprisingly productive freshman season. He wasn't viewed as an obvious one-and-done candidate coming in but wowed with explosiveness, shot-making ability and consistency.
He ended up shooting 38.7 percent from three and 81.3 percent from the line, finishing with at least 10 points in every game but four. There is a lot to like here between his athleticism and jumper alone. Beasley also flashed encouraging defensive potential thanks to his quickness and energy.
He'll likely need a year in the Development League or learning from the bench while his one-on-one ball skills improve. But for a team uninterested in drafting-and-stashing, Beasley looks like as good of a bet as any this late.
20. Memphis Grizzlies: Deyonta Davis (Michigan State, PF, Freshman)
Given Davis' limited role in Michigan State's offense, teams won't judge him based on production. He was active and efficient whenever the opportunity presented itself, having shot 59.8 percent from the floor and averaged 11.8 boards and 3.9 blocks per 40 minutes.
Even with so few touches, Davis consistently stood out under the NBA lens, thanks to 6'10", 240-pound size, length, bounce and a natural feel for the game. He also flashed some eye-opening defensive potential fueled by shot-blocking instincts and the versatility to defend hybrid 4s away from the rim.
Though he doesn't appear to offer flashy upside, his strong physical tools, defense and high-percentage offense suggest a high floor.
21. Atlanta Hawks: Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, PF/C, Freshman)
A major disappointment in 2015-16, Labissiere won't be any team's Plan A heading into the draft. But at some point, he becomes an intriguing buy-low value pick.
At 7'0", Labissiere still possesses rare size, bounce and skills, consisting of shooting touch and post moves. He'll have to add strength, toughness and awareness, but he also hasn't been playing the game all that long.
A year in the D-League to build reps and confidence may be just what Labissiere needs.
22. Charlotte Hornets: Grayson Allen (Duke, SG, Sophomore)
Allen has kept the heat on all year, and with Duke in the Sweet 16, he hasn't stopped cooking. Fresh off a 23-point outing in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, Allen poured in 29 points against Yale and is now averaging 26.2 points over his last six games.
On the year, he's connecting on 2.8 threes (41.9 percent) and 6.5 free throws per 40 minutes. He also leads Duke with 3.5 assists per game.
With explosive attacking ability, a convincing shooting stroke and just a hint of playmaking, Allen offers enough to warrant a first-round selection.
23. Boston Celtics: Ante Zizic (Croatia, PF/C, 1997)
Unlike most NBA prospects overseas, Zizic is racking up the production. He just went for 28 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in a FIBA Europe Cup game last week. And Wednesday, he followed with an 18-point, 11-rebound double-double.
At 6'11", 230 pounds, Zizic moves awfully well for a big and consistently positions himself for easy buckets, whether it's by running the floor, timing a cut or boxing out for an offensive rebound.
Zizic has "energizer" written all over his NBA outlook.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat): Isaia Cordinier (France, SG, 1996)
Cordinier has generated some buzz from France with special athleticism and efficient production. At 6'5", he's a high-flyer and highlight waiting to happen, while he's shot 50 percent from the floor and made 31 of 62 three-point attempts.
Though he's playing in LNB Pro B (France's second division), Cordinier's explosiveness and shooting potential remain convincing. He's getting regular reps while many of the other international prospects are warming the bench at higher levels.
The Sixers won't draft three NCAA players. They'll draft-and-stash at least one, and Cordinier has emerged as a quality candidate in the late first round.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: DeAndre' Bembry (Saint Joseph's, SG/SF, Junior)
After a few big performances on the national stage, scouts are speaking highly of Bembry, who slid under the radar during the regular season.
He just went for 30 points in the Atlantic 10 tournament final against VCU. He followed with 23 points and five assists in an NCAA tournament win over Cincinnati before a 16-point, 12-rebound effort against top seed Oregon.
At 6'6", Bembry blends quickness and bounce with unique passing instincts for a wing. He's developed into a strong two-point scorer and versatile playmaker. Chances are teams will be waiting to pounce in Round 2, but the Clippers won't let him slip that far.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (via Thunder): Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame, PG, Junior)
Jackson was efficient in Notre Dame's second-round win over Stephen F. Austin, scoring 18 points on just two misses. The performance painted an accurate picture of his strengths—athleticism, decision-making, shooting—and one major weakness.
Playing lead guard for the first time, Jackson's limited playmaking ability has been exposed this year. He's only averaging 4.7 assists and doesn't have that blazing first step.
Still, at No. 26, the Sixers won't pass on Jackson, who'd bring explosiveness, poise, shooting and stability to Philadelphia's backcourt. With one of their three first-round picks, the Sixers have to grab a point guard; they'll fill a need with Jackson, arguably the top prospect on the board this late.
27. Toronto Raptors: Diamond Stone (Maryland, C, Freshman)
Stone went for 14 points in Maryland's second-round win against Hawaii, having put in some nice back-to-the-basket work and positioned himself for catch-and-finish opportunities.
He's still raw, lacks defensive awareness and isn't a great rebounder, but Stone's physical tools (6'11", 255 pounds, 7'3 ½" wingspan), agility and hands are worth developing.
I view him more as a backup center than a starting anchor down the road.
28. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers): Dejounte Murray (Washington, PG/SG, Freshman)
Though a project with reckless tendencies and limited shooting range, Murray is an electric 6'5" playmaker with tremendous end-to-end speed handling the ball.
He picks up most of his buckets by getting to the rack or scoring off runners and floaters. Though more of a combo guard than a point guard, Murray's ability to blow by and create off the dribble leads to drive-and-dish assists.
For a patient team looking to liven up its backcourt, Murray offers a good amount of upside in the 20s.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Ivica Zubac (Croatia, C, 1997)
Zubac drew attention over the summer with big showings at the European Championships (15.8 points, 12.9 rebounds) and World Championships (17.6 points, 7.9 rebounds). He's earned it again.
Zubac recently left Cibona to sign with BC Mega Leks. Though he won't be eligible for Serbian League until April, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony, Zubac will be allowed to participate in scrimmages. During his first one, he went for 20 points, five boards and five assists with NBA scouts in attendance.
At 7'0", 240 pounds, he's still more physical tools and mobility than skills and polish. But between his size and production, it's not difficult to see why he's viewed as one of the top prospects overseas.
30. Golden State Warriors: Brice Johnson (North Carolina, PF/C, Senior)
Johnson followed up his 18-point, seven-rebound, eight-block line against Florida Gulf Coast with 21 points and 10 boards in a second-round tourney win over Providence.
Despite a limited one-on-one game and no real shooting range, Johnson's motor, bounce and quickness have consistently translated to easy buckets off dump-downs, offensive rebounds and fast breaks.
He'll play the same role in the pros as he does for North Carolina—one that asks him to run, jump, rebound and finish.
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