Printable NCAA Tournament Bracket 2016: Downloadable Sheet, Tips for Best Picks

Welcome to Selection Sunday 2016—the day we all convince ourselves this is finally the year we pick a perfect bracket or at least win the office pool. 

However, the unpredictability of the tournament is what adds the Madness to March. Even the smartest college basketball fans in the room who watched games nonstop from November through the conference tournaments may trip up when filling out their Big Dance brackets.

Picking the winners may seem like nothing more than luck, especially if you’ve been trying and failing for so many years, but a little bit of extra information never hurt. With that in mind, the link for a downloadable and printable NCAA tournament bracket is below, as well as some tried and tested tips to help you conquer the Madness this year.

Bracket Tips

Look for the Nos. 10, 11 and 12 Seeds for Upsets, but Only Early

There may be no better bracket-based thrill than correctly picking a completely unexpected upset, but it would be wise to stay away from the Nos. 13-16 seeds.

Don’t just take my word for it—look at the numbers. Brian Mull of NCAA.com pointed to the work of Davidson math and computer science professor Tim Chartier and said 76 percent of the upsets in the NCAA tournament since 2002 came from Nos. 10, 11 or 12 seeds, with a full 27 percent coming from those No. 12 seeds.

It is important to note Chartier and his team did not consider a No. 9 seed knocking off a No. 8 seed an upset. 

Before you advance those Nos. 10-12 seeds too far in the bracket, though, consider this stat from Chartier’s work, via Mull: “Of teams with a 10 or higher seed, only two teams have won four games in the tournament (2.3 percent) and only four teams have ever won three games (4.5 percent). Of these teams, no team was higher than a 12 seed.” 

The upsets come every season in the NCAA tournament, but they probably won’t come in the later rounds.

Don’t go too Crazy

Along those same lines, don’t veer too far off course if you want an accurate bracket.

Chartier’s math said every national champion but one was either a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed in the last 14 years (No. 7 seed Connecticut in 2014 was the lone exception, and the Huskies knocked off No. 8 seed Kentucky to cap off an unexpected tournament).

It may seem boring, but don’t stray much further than a top-three seed when looking for your eventual national champion.

The championship game isn’t the only place you should stick with chalk. According to Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, the No. 16 seeds are a whopping 0-124 against No. 1 seeds in NCAA tournament history. You can’t even bust out the cliche “so you’re saying there’s a chance line” with the matchups at the top of the four regions because it has never happened.

You could work under the assumption that it has to happen sometime, but the odds certainly aren’t in your favor. It is a much safer bet to pick the No. 1 seeds to advance all the way to the Final Four considering Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports said “just over 41 percent” of the top seeds have made it that far since the tournament expanded in 1985. 

However, all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four in the same year only one time during that span (2008), so don’t solely rely on those top teams.

Beware of the Defending Champions This Year

Steve Helber/Associated Press

While the other tips here are overarching, numbers-based themes, this one is much more specific—the Duke Blue Devils look particularly vulnerable heading into the 2016 NCAA tournament.

Duke simply doesn’t have the defense or interior depth to reach college basketball’s zenith for the second year in a row.

According to Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defense efficiency rankings, the Blue Devils are the No. 110 defense in the nation, as of Sunday. What’s more, they are coming off two disappointing efforts on that side of the floor in the ACC tournament.

Duke gave up 89 points and barely escaped with a three-point victory over North Carolina State in its first game in Washington D.C. and then lost to Notre Dame in the next one, 84-79. The Wolfpack shot 55.4 percent from the field, while the Fighting Irish hit 50 percent of their shots. Both teams consistently carved up Duke with dribble penetration and ball movement, and provided a blueprint for NCAA tournament opponents.

Part of the problem for Mike Krzyzewski’s team is the fact big man Amile Jefferson is out for the season with injury. There is little interior depth behind Marshall Plumlee without a healthy Jefferson, and Chase Jeter and Sean Obi have been wildly inconsistent at best this season. 

Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports pointed to the interior defense as a major concern for the defending champions:

All it could take in a one-and-done tournament situation is Plumlee getting into foul trouble once to spell the end of Duke’s season.

However, Jefferson hasn’t played since Dec. 5, and freshman guard Luke Kennard seemed ready to embrace the adversity, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post: “I don’t think it’ll be a factor for us, just because of how tough we are. We’ve been through some adversity throughout the year, and we’ve battled through it. I don’t think it’ll take a toll on us as a group going into next week. It may for other teams, but I don’t it will for us.”

While the determination is admirable, it is difficult to envision Duke cutting down the nets again without enough bodies down low. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, Jahlil Okafor isn't walking through that door.

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