Sports Marketwatch: MLB Edition

Welcome to this week's Sports Marketwatch: MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Last weekend, the MLB MarketWatch was down just a bit.  The underdog selections we made competitive, but only the SF Giants grabbed the win.  Happily, the Giants were a +150 underdog, so we almost broke even, going 1-2 (+1.5 units minus 2 units for 2 losses).  The “plus odds” is one of the reasons that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. 

Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams.  Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50% -- but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment. 

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 1-4, 20%, -2.5 units

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Baltimore Orioles +135 over Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox remain overvalued this season, while the Orioles are undervalued.  SportsInsights’ exclusive betting percentages show that the public continues this trend, with about 25% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) on the visiting Red Sox in tonight’s game. 

We note that the Red Sox, even while playing solid ball (hovering at a winning percentage of just below .600 for most of the season), are down few units for the season, “against the spread (ATS).”  The Orioles, playing .500 ball for the season, are up a few units ATS.  That shows you the “power of the moneyline.”  We’ll take the undervalued Orioles as a live home dog. 

Baltimore Orioles +136 (Matchbook, after commission)  

Minnesota Twins +100 over New York Yankees

The visiting NY Yankees are collecting almost 65% of the bets over the Twins.  The Yankees have been on a hot streak lately, but remain surprisingly below .500!!  The Twins, on the other hand, are playing .528 ball and are two games out of first place. 

We love getting “plus moneyline odds” on an underrated team that is playing at home.  The Yankees’ old warhorse – Mike Mussina – isn’t as consistent as he once was…  We’ll “sell” the Yankees at a recent high and take another home dog in this matchup. 

Minnesota Twins +100

Pittsburgh Pirates +155 over St. Louis Cardinals

Our contacts at a large offshore sportsbook circled this game.  “Smart money” is taking the Pirates and “Z. Duke.”  St. Louis has been playing well this year, but look over-valued a bit – with about 80% of the bets (including teasers and parlays). 

Even with an overwhelming percentage of bets on the Cardinals, the line has moved from St. Louis -180 (Cris opener) to -155 at most sportsbooks.  That means that 20% of the bets has moved the line opposite of the way 80% of the bets have been going.  Big bucks – and smart money – are taking the Pirates tonight. 

We’ll take the visiting Pirates and the nice +155 odds still available at SIA.  Sell the Cards at a recent “high” and grab some contrarian value in the sports marketplace.

Pittsburgh Pirates +155 (SIA)

Games to Watch (1-4, -2.5 units)

Baltimore Orioles +136  

Minnesota Twins +100

Pittsburgh Pirates +155

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!