Realistic Expectations for Sauber in 2016 Formula 1 Season
In recent years, Formula One teams who decide to miss the first pre-season test often find themselves signing their own death warrants.
Picking and choosing test appearances was commonplace in seasons gone by, when teams would prefer to spend an extra week or two on the development of their car or putting some final touches to a fancy new front wing.
But in an era of severely restricted testing? Of those pesky, high-maintenance V6 turbo power units and all their idiosyncrasies? Time not spent pounding around a circuit in southern Spain is time wasted.
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And that time is rarely, if ever, won back.
In 2014, the first year of the current-generation engines, Lotus played truant during the opening test at Jerez and opted to launch their twin-tusked E22 three weeks later in Bahrain.
Fitted with Renault's problematic powertrain, however, the car was restricted to just 238 laps, according to Sky Sports' William Esler—for comparison, eventual world champions Mercedes racked up 975—and Lotus, who claimed countless podiums and won a race the previous season, tumbled to eighth in the constructors' standings.
Last year, meanwhile, "cash-flow issues"—as deputy team principal Bob Fernley told Sky Sports' Mike Wise—saw Force India's VJM08 car delayed several times before it appeared with just three days of testing remaining.
Although they ultimately went on to claim their best-ever championship position of fifth (in what was admittedly a low-quality field), the team began 2015 with patchy results, and a car only quicker than those of McLaren-Honda and Manor, before a B-specification chassis was introduced at the midseason stage.
The trials and tribulations encountered by Lotus and Force India since 2014 meant there was a familiar whiff of impending doom in the air when, as reported by Sky Sports' James Galloway, it emerged in January that Sauber's new car will not appear until the final pre-season test.
In a year in which the pre-season schedule has been reduced from three tests to two, Sauber, who will run a modified 2015 chassis in the opening test at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, will have a maximum of four days to prepare their new C35 car for the season-opening Australian Grand Prix on March 20.
And if McLaren-Honda finally make the progress they are capable of, and aid from Mercedes and Ferrari respectively allow Manor and Haas to race competitively, there is a danger that Sauber—accustomed to running in the lower half of the midfield over the last few seasons—will begin 2016 at the very rear of the grid.
But even so, the risk of missing the first test is worth taking.
Among the most financially troubled teams, Sauber have effectively competed with the same car over the last two years, with technical expert Craig Scarborough telling F1 reporter Peter Windsor on his YouTube channel that a new nose design—enforced by the revised regulations—was the only notable difference between 2014 and 2015.
With 2016 set to be the final year of the current chassis regulations, there is a clear temptation to try something different and, as Felipe Nasr told Crash.net, be "a little bit more aggressive"—even if it compromises their preparation for the proposed 2017 rule changes.
Had they retained the same car for a third successive year, it is probable that the team—despite their access to the increasingly powerful and reliable Ferrari engine—would have been at the back of the field anyway. So why not be a little radical, a little innovative, a little adventurous?
Much of Sauber's hopes for this season, then, will rest upon the shoulders of Mark Smith, who joined the team as technical director last July and, as Nasr told Crash.net, "straightaway" began pushing for a more aggressive approach.
Formerly of Jordan, Renault, Red Bull and Force India, Smith is a highly experienced engineer, and while his most recent adventure with the now-defunct Caterham team ended disastrously, his unique interpretation of the 2014 nose regulations suggests Sauber's technical team will be led by one of the most creative minds in F1.
The prospect of guiding a team through what will almost certainly be a difficult start to the season will also offer a different challenge to Nasr following an impressive debut season in 2015, when he claimed six points finishes including two top-six results in Australia and Russia.
Although his first campaign was not without the niggling issues you would associate with rookies—the Brazilian often struggled with braking at the midseason stage and changed his race engineer in the closing months of the year—Nasr has now established himself as Sauber's lead driver.
Indeed, how Sauber progress throughout this year may reflect on Nasr's leadership skills in a year in which he could quite easily earn a move to a front-running team after he was regarded as a likely replacement for Valtteri Bottas at Williams during 2015, per Italian publication Corriere dello Sport (h/t GrandPrix247.com).
While his team-mate, Marcus Ericsson, is less convincing—his high-energy driving style became counterproductive after putting too much pressure on himself to succeed, as he admitted to Autosport's Lawrence Barretto—his five minor points finishes in 2015 proved he is capable of scoring when the car is to his liking.
And getting the car to both their drivers' liking will be the crucial factor in Sauber's season.
If the new chassis proves to be worth the wait, and the team can keep their rivals within touching distance across the opening series of "flyaway" races, retaining eighth place in what is now an 11-team constructors' championship—and claiming more Australia 2015-style results—would see the gamble pay off.
But should the C35 fail to live up to expectations—or, at worst, prove to be fundamentally flawed—the team's campaign could be every bit as miserable as Lotus' 2014, and they may even struggle to beat Manor, who have registered just one points finish in six seasons, to a place in the top 10.
As Nasr told Crash.net last December, though, Sauber simply "have to give it a try." They "need to try something."
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