Rutgers 31 MARYLAND (pick) 27
Rutgers may be without starting quarterback Tom Savage, who is questionable with a concussion, but backup Dom Natale was neck and neck with Savage for the starting job in August and probably won't be much of a step down.
The Scarlet Knights have been a bit better than average offensively this season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and they should perform well against a confused Maryland defense that hasn't grasped the concepts of their new defensive coordinator quite yet.
The Terrapins have allowed 6.9 yppl in 3 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense), so Rutgers should move the ball well regardless of who is at quarterback. Maryland's offense has under-performed so far, averaging just 5.3 yppl against defenses that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack, but Rutgers has questions on defense and allowed 8.4 yppl to Cincinnati, the only BCS conference offense that they faced.
Cincinnati has a much better offense than Maryland, but the Terps have the personnel to move the ball well in this game both on the ground and through the air.
My math favors Rutgers by a point and the Scarlet Knights apply to a solid 118-53-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I like Rutgers and the over in this game.
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