Why the Patriots Are the Biggest Surprise of the 2015-16 NFL Postseason So Far

We're now through the first two rounds of the 2015-16 NFL postseason, and only four teams remain in the race to Super Bowl 50. Considering the top two seeds in both the AFC and NFC have advanced to their respective conference championship games, there aren't many surprises here.

Well, actually, that isn't true at all. There's one big surprise remaining—and it's a team that probably wouldn't surprise observers who only did a little scratching along the surface. 

We're talking about the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. 

Not only are the Patriots surprising because they're appearing in their fifth consecutive AFC Championship Game (which has happened only once before, mind you), but also because of the long and rocky road the team took to get to this point. 

Now, you might be thinking,"Big deal, teams win the Super Bowl and then return to the conference title game all the time."

You'd be wrong. Of the 10 teams to win the Big Game before last year's Patriots team, only one (the 2013 champion Seattle Seahawks) returned to their conference championship the following year. What the Patriots have done is astonishing. 

As we mentioned, though, it's the team's path through the 2015-16 season that makes New England's feat truly impressive.

Why Is Getting Back Difficult?

First, we need to look at why it has been so difficult in recent years for Super Bowl winners to get back to within a game of repeat appearances.

The most basic reason is teams that play in the Super Bowl face a shortened offseason. This might not seem like something that would have a massive impact, but it does make a difference.

These teams miss out on a month of preparation the teams that missed the postseason entirely enjoy. The players on the roster miss out on an entire month of rest and recuperation, which might help explain why injuries were an issue for the Patriots in 2015. (This is a topic we will examine shortly.)

Another reason it is difficult for Super Bowl winners to extend their success is that keeping a championship-caliber team together is hard. A Lombardi Trophy looks great on the resume of any pending free agent, and there is never a shortage of teams looking to add championship experience through the open market.

Other teams didn't exactly raid New England for talent with fervor in the offseason, but a few key players did depart. The most critical to the team's 2014 success was cornerback Darrelle Revis. 

Losing Revis and Brandon Browner meant that the Patriots' starting duo in the secondary was gone. While Browner was mostly a disappointment with the New Orleans Saints, Revis kept playing at a high level with the New York Jets. Pro Football Focus rated him 30th overall among cornerbacks for the season.

New England is ranked a mediocre 17th in pass defense (240.7 yards per game allowed), but it has done enough to help the team rank 10th in points allowed per game. 

Other players who left in the offseason include running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who combined for 190 carries and 56 receptions during the 2014 regular season. Starting guard Dan Connolly retired as well.

Injuries

The fact that the Patriots survived an avalanche of injuries during the regular season isn't exactly breaking news. However, it is quite remarkable. The full list of injuries is too large to go over, but we can cover some of the big ones.

The first major injury-related obstacle New England had to overcome was the loss of starting left tackle Nate Solder for the year to a torn biceps in Week 5. This, along with a myriad of other injuries along the offensive line, caused the Patriots to field a line that was rated just 31st in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus.

New England then lost running back Dion Lewis to a torn ACL a few weeks later. It was Lewis (622 total yards, four touchdowns) who had emerged as the Patriots' new dual-threat running back and one of Tom Brady's favorite targets.

Speaking of Brady's targets, top receiver Julian Edelman was lost to a broken foot in Week 10 and didn't return until the postseason. Fellow wideout Danny Amendola also missed time due to injury. Even star tight end Rob Gronkowski missed one full game and part of another after taking a brutal hit to the knee against the Denver Broncos in Week 12.

Cornerback Tarell Brown, fullback James Develin, guard/center Ryan Wendell, receiver Aaron Dobson and defensive tackle Dominique Easley also found their way to injured reserve.

“This is football. It’s physical every week,” Gronkowski said of injury risk, per Erik Scalavino of the team's official website. “Show me a game where there’s no hitting… this isn’t seven-on-seven or two-hand touch middle school. This is hitting every game. We have to expect to get hit big every time you step out on that field.”

Injuries might be unavoidable in the NFL, but they can derail a team's playoff run. The Patriots, though, have kept on pushing. 

Momentum

Some teams come crashing into the postseason with a wave of positive momentum and use it to burrow through the playoffs. The Patriots did not have such a luxury. Any momentum New England carried into the 2015-16 playoffs was decidedly negative.

This came, in part, because of the injuries mentioned above. It also came in part because New England simply wasn't playing good football. 

The Patriots dropped four of their final six games and lost a couple of them in convincing fashion. However, the fact that the team lost two AFC East games to finish the season hurt the worst. Had they won either of them, the Pats would have had home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Yes, the team knew it was going to have at least one home-field game in the postseason to go along with an opening-round bye before losing its last two games. But the Patriots looked so out of sync that Tom Joyce of CDANews.com wondered whether they could simply flip the switch for their divisional-round game:

"

Recently, [the Patriots] have dropped four of their last six games. That includes back to back defeats to AFC rivals, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, to close out the regular season. Simply put, their best football has not been played lately.

It would be tough to expect the Patriots to just turn it on today when, realistically, they have not played quality football since November.

"

The Chiefs, on the other hand, had an insane amount of momentum and had been consistently playing quality football for nearly three months. 

The Divisional Matchup

We've looked at the surprising way the Patriots carved their path to the postseason and the AFC's No. 2 seed. Now, let's take a quick look at why their win over Kansas City last week was surprising in and of itself.

For starters, the Patriots really did have a good chance of falling flat. Spending a week contemplating the past month of crap football isn't going to give a team a psychological edge against a red-hot contender, which the Chiefs were.

Kansas City had just won its 11th consecutive game, and it did so by administering a 30-0 thrashing to the Houston Texans on Wild Card Weekend.

Kansas City's defense allowed an average of just 17.9 points per game (third-fewest in the league) and was rated fifth overall by Pro Football Focus.

Surprisingly, the Patriots were nowhere near flat once the opening whistle was blown. Brady and Co. were crisp, in sync and deadly. The offense went for a touchdown on the game's opening drive and then systematically shredded that impressive Chiefs defense.

New England produced 340 net yards of offense and leaped out to a 21-6 lead before coasting to an eventual 27-20 victory. Sure, the Chiefs pulled withing a touchdown late, but at no point did it seem like the Patriots were in danger of losing the game.

The team did finally have Edelman back, but as former NFL physician David Chao explains, he couldn't have been 100 percent:

This was still a banged-up and sinking team that didn't look much like the Patriots team of opening day—let alone the one that won last year's Super Bowl. It wasn't supposed to make defeating the Chiefs appear easy in any way, but it did, as About.com's Will Reeve noted:

Now the Patriots are staring down a matchup with the Denver Broncos and an opportunity to earn a crack at another Lombardi Trophy.

By now, we shouldn't be shocked when the Patriots do surprising things. They've constructed one of the few true dynasties of the modern NFL era. However, the fact that New England has done so at a time when the league itself is trying every way possible to create parity is impressive. It's surprising, really, and it should be appreciated.