Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Indianapolis owns the recent rivalry with Tennessee, winning the last eight meetings outright and going 7-1 against the spread. Still clinging to faint postseason hopes and perhaps playing for the head coach's job, the Colts host the Titans Sunday.

Point spread: Colts opened as six-point favorites; the total was off the board early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.1-18.6 Colts

Why the Titans can cover the spread

Tennessee has fallen by the wayside, losing three games in a row and six of its last seven, thanks in no small part to some key injuries, including quarterback Marcus Mariota's sprained knee. Last week, the Titans fell at home to a hot Houston team, 34-6, another game's tape that should just be burned.

Realistically, there's little reason to risk money on Tennessee at the moment.

But consider this: While the Titans lost to Indy back in September, 35-33, they actually rallied from down 14-0 to take a 27-14 lead, and one of the Colts' touchdowns came on a pick-six. Later, Tennessee scored to make it a two-point game with under a minute to go but missed, forcing overtime by failing on a two-point conversion. And Andrew Luck played that game for Indy.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts just snapped a three-game losing streak with a much-needed 18-12 victory at Miami, staying alive in the AFC South race. Indy scored on a safety with a sack in the end zone six minutes in and never trailed, building an 18-9 lead, later securing the victory with a defensive stand deep inside its own red zone in the last half-minute.

On the day, the Colts ran the ball for 100 yards and got a 17-of-29 performance from the quarterback combination of Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst without a turnover. Even at 7-8, Indy can still win the AFC South with a victory and help from elsewhere. It's a slim chance, but a chance nonetheless.

Smart pick

In a battle of backup (and worse) quarterbacks, it might be wise to bet the better defense, and in this case, that's Tennessee. But the Titans are so inept on offense that they, in good conscience, can't be recommended. The smartest play in this spot is probably the pass.

Betting trends

The Titans are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Colts.

The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games against their division.

The Titans are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games as underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.