Daily Fantasy Football Week 16: Predicting DraftKings Top Performers and Busts

Hopefully the Christmas edition of DraftKings top performers and busts finds you warm among family and friends as we unwrap the matchups in daily fantasy football for Week 16.

The difficulty and uneasiness of lineup construction is increasing as more and more players we haven’t heard of become viable DFS starters in 2015’s closing act.

Use the list below to fill your roster with glad tidings while avoiding those pesky lumps of coal.

Top Performers

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,800)

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In case you missed it, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers marched up and down the field on the Denver Broncos' top-ranked defense in Week 15, racking up 268 yards and 24 unanswered points in an impressive come-from-behind victory.

"

This one is a gooden. @Steelers' Big Ben Roethlisberger & Mike Tomlin mic'd up against the @Broncos! 🆒⚫💛 https://t.co/2Dv5INRbiR

— NFL UK (@NFLUK) December 23, 2015"

Roethlisberger came out of Week 15 the sixth-ranked quarterback in scoring (27.90) with on 380 yards passing, three touchdowns and two interceptions against a Broncos defense still ranked first in points allowed to QBs.

Pittsburgh's Week 16 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, rank 25th.

With so many favorable matchups on Week 16’s docket, Roethlisberger’s ownership percentage should be low enough to take advantage of his second-tier salary—tied for sixth among QBs—in a top-tier matchup.   

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,500)

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

For those into stacking, DeAngelo Williams is an intriguing play against a Ravens run defense that is solid on paper—ranked fifth in points allowed to running backs.

However, the Ravens have a terribly deficient pass defense—graded 26th—which should allow the Steelers’ fourth-ranked passing game to spread Baltimore out and run up the score early. Las Vegas expects Pittsburgh to be the highest-scoring offense this week—29 implied points.

The 10-point spread in Pittsburgh’s favor indicates plenty of red-zone and clock-killing opportunities for Williams, who is averaging the most volume among running backs over the past six weeks:

RB leaders in average touches over past six weeks
	G	Att	Yds	TD	Tgts	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
DeAngelo Williams	5	88	319	4	23	20	179	0	21.6
Adrian Peterson	6	117	556	5	12	11	81	0	21.3
LeSean McCoy	6	109	479	1	27	19	162	1	21.3
Doug Martin	6	113	662	2	13	8	57	0	20.2
Latavius Murray	6	104	326	2	15	11	65	0	19.2

Williams ranks second in red-zone rushing attempts with 12 in that same time span, yielding four touchdowns. Expect this cog in Pittsburgh’s powerhouse offense to keep rolling against the fizzling Ravens.  

Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,600)

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Martavis Bryant is the most economical yet effective weapon from Pittsburgh’s receiver stable to complete the most prolific stack of Week 16.

Bryant cannot compare to teammate Antonio Brown in opportunity or production, but at $9,300, Brown is the most expensive DraftKings player at any position in Week 16. A Roethlisberger-Williams-Brown stack costs $22,600, nearly half of the $50,000 salary cap.

Credit: DraftKings

Subbing Bryant for Brown into the Steelers triple stack offers a $3,700 discount and provides access to a top-tier stack while allowing more salary to roster studs at other spots.

Credit: DraftKings

Chris Raybon of 4for4 tweeted a comparison of Bryant’s stat line to that of Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson ($7,500):

"

Player A: 9.5 tar, 4.9 rec, 81.5 yd, 0.9 TD Player B: 9.6 tar, 5.3 rec, 84.5 yd, 0.7 TD Player A? Allen Robinson Player B? Martavis Bryant

— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) December 24, 2015"

Baltimore’s defense ranks 30th in points allowed to wide receivers, and it must come up with an answer to stop Brown before dealing with Bryant. With a Robinson-like track record at a $1,900 discount, Bryant will be a rare top-performing value in cash games and GPPs this weekend.

Busts

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings ($7,300)

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Adrian Peterson should be the most desirable running back in Week 16 based on volume. He leads all backs with 128 touches and five touchdowns over the past six weeks.

But the 30-year-old missed part of last Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, then missed Wednesday’s practice with a bum shoulder as well, as listed on Minnesota’s official injury report.

Nagging injuries wouldn’t normally be a concern for the obvious heart of the Vikings offense. John Lee of Football Guys and Roto Grinders tweeted what All Day means to Minnesota’s prospects before the Week 15 showdown with the Chicago Bears:

"

Vikings have 8 wins & are favored by 5.5 against the Bears. In those 8 wins, Adrian Peterson has 100 all-purpose yards 7 times. #MustPlay

— John Lee (@tipandpick) December 17, 2015"

But head coach Mike Zimmer hinted in Wednesday’s press conference that although Peterson’s ankle “should be good,” he and other injured players could end up resting Sunday night against the New York Giants if the Vikings’ playoff destiny is already determined, according to Vikings.com.

“I do want to be smart and that would be more so with guys that are hurt or something like that,” Zimmer said.

Credit: NFL.com

A safer method for owners wishing to start Peterson is to put him in at the flex, then swap him out for another eligible player if the Atlanta Falcons lose to the Carolina Panthers, or the Seattle Seahawks defeat the St. Louis Rams.    

Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,900)

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Jeremy Hill will tempt owners this week despite facing the Broncos’ top-rated run defense on the road. He logged 19 carries for 31 yards and two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday.

It marked his third game with at least 19 touches, and his fourth multiple-touchdown performance. But Hill ran ineffectively, averaging 1.6 yards per carry and grading 52nd out of 53 eligible running backs in rushing.

Head coach Marvin Lewis benched him for the first quarter for missing a team meeting Saturday, according to 700 WLW’s Dave Lapham on the Bengals Line.

“Yes, I did get confirmation after the game that he overslept for one of the meetings,” Lapham said.

Hill could also find himself in the doghouse for fumbling, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr. tweeted:

"

Blowout or not, a Jeremy Hill fumble will not sit well with Hue Jackson, especially on a day he already sat him out the first quarter.

— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) December 20, 2015"

The Bengals ran it 57.6 percent of the time Sunday without Andy Dalton ($6,100), compared to 43.1 percent overall in 2015. Cincinnati fed Hill the rock seven times inside San Francisco’s 10-yard line, compared to eight total in the last five weeks.

He’s not likely to enjoy similar red-zone volume in Week 16, considering the opponent and tight end Tyler Eifert’s ($4,900) possible return from a Week 14 concussion—Eifert ranks second overall with 11 red-zone receiving touchdowns.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($7,100)

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Larry Fitzgerald remains among the league's top wide receiver targets, tied for fifth with 59 through the past six weeks. But he and the New England Patriots’ Brandon LaFell ($4,500) are the only wideouts with at least 40 targets during that span to be held out of the end zone.

The healthy returns of John Brown ($5,300) and Michael Floyd ($4,900) contributed to Fitzgerald’s regression, along with the emergence of rookie running back David Johnson ($5,800).

The nine-time Pro Bowler could draw a favorable matchup against Green Bay Packers rookie cornerback Damarious Randall on Sunday if Sam Shields does not pass concussion protocol, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:

"

With Sam Shields still in the concussion protocol, Damarious Randall's next assignment could be Larry Fitzgerald https://t.co/5NufReo3Lt

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) December 21, 2015"

However, the 10th-highest WR salary is a substantial gamble for a player who’s scored three times more than $7,100 (21.3 points) only four times this season, most recently against Seattle in Week 10 (26.0).

Look elsewhere for top-end wide receiver options in Week 16.

Standard NFL statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. CBS Sports.com provided standard fantasy stats. Advanced NFL and fantasy numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Las Vegas odds are provided by Odds Shark. Fantasy points allowed rankings based on DraftKings scoring. Week 10 DraftKings stats courtesy of Roto Guru, unless otherwise noted.

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