Frankie Edgar vs. Chad Mendes: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

The second main event of the upcoming UFC fight week serves as a title eliminator in the featherweight division.

No. 2-ranked contender Frankie Edgar (18-4-1) squares off with No. 3-ranked Chad Mendes (17-3) in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 finale.

Edgar has won four straight since losing his title bid against Jose Aldo in 2013, but Mendes is coming off a loss to Conor McGregor in an interim title tilt back in July. He filled in for Aldo on short notice for UFC 189, but the bombastic Irishman dispatched him in the second round.

Edgar and Mendes have the talent to upend Aldo or McGregor, but they have to win on December 11 to have that opportunity in 2016.

Let's take a look at the breakdown between two of the best featherweights on the planet as they hit the cage a day before the title is unified at UFC 194.

Striking

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Mendes' boxing has improved drastically over the years, and he certainly has more power than Edgar. However, The Answer is the much more polished striker between the two.

Their FightMetric numbers are similar, but the biggest difference comes from their output. Edgar averages 3.50 significant strikes per minute, whereas Mendes lands 2.71. Mendes often seeks the one-hitter quitter, but Edgar will touch up his opponents to rack up the points.

Edgar can hold his own against the best strikers on the planet, but he has been rocked numerous times. If Mendes connects flush, that will be a wrap for this title eliminator.

In a fight-round main event, I favor Edgar's style more. He is better at working the body than Mendes is, which could play a big factor in this fight, as body strikes took a toll on Mendes against McGregor. The complete attack of Edgar is a bit better than that of Mendes heading into this fight.

Edge: Edgar

Grappling

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Mendes is a fantastic wrestler, and if this were just a wrestling match, he would probably get the nod. But it's not.

The reason I side with Edgar in this category, which would normally tip toward Mendes, is what we have historically seen from Edgar.

He has fought some of the best takedown defenders in the sport, and he not only has gotten them to the canvas but has proved to be able to consistently do it. He took down BJ Penn, Jose Aldo and Benson Henderson a total of 16 times in his six fights against them.

Remarkable.

And defensively, Edgar is better, too. He has been taken down only six times in his past 10 fights against credible wrestlers, including Mendes' teammate Urijah Faber.

Edgar is the cream of the crop in the UFC in this category and doesn't get the credit he deserves.

Edge: Edgar

Submissions

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Figuring out who holds the edge in finishing ability is a bit more difficult. Neither goes for submissions all that often, but both are capable of locking up a submission to get their hand raised.

We just don't often see it in their fights.

Mendes has a good guillotine, which is not surprising given his Team Alpha Male pedigree, but the last time we saw him submit an opponent was all the way back at WEC 48 in 2010. At least Edgar has gotten a tap inside the Octagon against Cub Swanson.

Also, Edgar has showcased top-tier submission defense. He showed that off right away in his UFC debut against Tyson Griffin in 2007, and it has only gotten better.

Edgar should mind his neck on any takedown attempt, but other than that, it is difficult to envision Mendes being able to catch Edgar in anything. He's simply too good. Put another category on the board for the former lightweight champion of the world.

Edge: Edgar

X-Factors

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Edgar's X-Factor: Establishing Distance

It's rare for Edgar to have the reach advantage, but he'll have two inches on Mendes. That gives Edgar more options with his striking.

Given the power punches of Mendes, it will be important for Edgar to establish the jab to create distance. He won't have to risk getting inside to land his strikes. It will be on Mendes to do that on fight night. The reach advantage is a welcome gift to Edgar in this matchup.

Keep an eye on how well Mendes is able to deal with being stuck outside.

Mendes' X-Factor: Mindset

Mendes gassed against McGregor, but that fact has an asterisk plastered beside it due to his coming in on short notice. He showed the ability to go five hard rounds against Aldo in their second title meeting. That shouldn't be a concern even with Edgar's incredible pace.

What will be interesting to watch is the mindset he has after losing to McGregor and losing two of his last three. He cannot afford a loss, or else he will go to the back of the line.

Will this force him to fight more conservatively, or will he be even more aggressive? Will it matter?

These are interesting questions that will be answered on fight day.

Prediction

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Yes, I gave the edge to Edgar in nearly every category, but do not get it twisted—this will be a close fight.

If the pound-for-pound rankings were based solely on skill and not wins and losses, Edgar would always be in the top five, if not the top three. He is a special fighter who does almost everything correctly, as shown by how easily he makes defeating elite competition look.

Mendes will be another notch on the belt, and Edgar will take aim at the 145-pound championship in 2016.

How will he do it? Edgar will take his time to establish his range before working in his takedowns. Mendes will be constantly confused as to what is coming as Edgar mixes up his offense. Ultimately, it will be his pace that separates him from Mendes. The Answer will pull away in the championship rounds.

Close rounds early, all Edgar late.

I do not foresee Edgar getting the stoppage, but it will be a runaway decision.

Prediction: Edgar defeats Mendes by unanimous decision.