Pac-12 Championship 2015: TV, Live Stream and Projections for Stanford vs. USC

The Pac-12 was thought long lost for the College Football Playoff just few weeks ago, but—with a heap of help—the West Coast could squeeze its way in. 

No. 7 Stanford and No. 20 USC meet in a rematch of a thrilling Week 3 contest that saw the then-unranked Cardinal swing an 11-point deficit into a 41-31 win in what, at the time, was considered a major road upset over then-No. 6 USC. 

The landscape of the conference and this pair, however, has changed dramatically in the two-and-a-half months since. 

The Trojans fired head coach Steve Sarkisian amid off-field troubles stemming from alcohol abuse, then recovered to win five of their final seven to win the Pac-12 South.  

Stanford survived a pair of nail-biters against No. 8 Notre Dame and Washington State, but couldn’t get past pesky Oregon, and finished the season with two losses—a low mark once thought an automatic playoff eliminator. 

But perhaps that’s not the case. Should Clemson and Alabama, the two top-ranked teams, lose in their respective conference title games this weekend—a realistic possibility—the Cardinal would have a certified case to be included among the Final Four over the likes of Ohio State, would-be ACC champion North Carolina and the Big Ten runner-up: either Iowa or Michigan State.

Andrew Flowers of stats-site FiveThirtyEight explains the Cardinal’s case in its extensive playoff model that runs 20,000 simulations, and that Stanford would be primely positioned in a scenario where both the Crimson Tide and Tigers lose:

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If this happens, Stanford is the best bet to make it into the playoff. But only if it wins the Pac-12 championship. The Cardinal’s odds rise to 62 percent in this scenario — their highest probability of any of the rabbit holes we sent them down.

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As the excitement of conference championship weekend draws near, here is a preview of the title game on tap in the Bay Area this weekend.

Date/Time: Saturday, Dec. 6 at 7:45 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN.com

Odds: Stanford (-4), per Odds Shark

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

Stanford and USC each average more than 36 points per game, so there should be no shortage of offense. 

All-purpose Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey should be primed for another big showing—perhaps enough to earn an invite to New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony, if he hasn’t already.

McCaffrey leads the nation with 3,035 all-purpose yards—a whopping 625 ahead of second place—and can break Barry Sanders’ NCAA record of 3,250 by merely reaching his season average of 252.9 yards.  

ESPN Stats & Info showed context to where McCaffrey ranks among the most versatile running backs among the college football annals:

It just so happens that McCaffrey’s breakout game came against the Trojans earlier this year, when the sophomore eclipsed 100 rushing yards for the first time this season. 

Among the Pac-12, USC’s defense ranks fourth against the year, fifth against the pass and fourth in scoring, meaning that the Cardinal will have to lean on more than McCaffrey to win their third conference title since the championship game was implemented in 2011

McCaffrey’s presence has forced defenses to devote more attention to him in the backfield, thus opening up single coverage for quarterback Kevin Hogan downfield. 

Such was the case in the regular-season finale vs. Notre Dame, when Hogan was 17-of-21 for 269 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, while McCaffrey churned out 228 all-purpose yards, which was considered a quiet outing for the star sophomore.

Hogan had big shoes to fill when Stanford great Andrew Luck left for the NFL, which perhaps created lofty and somewhat-unfair expectations, as sports author Molly Knight indicated:

The last time these teams met, Clay Helton was USC's offensive coordinator. He became interim head coach when Sarkisian left and this week was named the permanent. 

Stanford head coach David Shaw echoed nothing but class of of the hire, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times:

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I've heard Clay's name for a long time. [...] I love when there's stability in the coaching profession. And USC having that stability with the guy there, and the job that he's done, with the respect that he has, I think is positive for them and positive for all of us.

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Saturday’s meeting could be the first of many between these two on this stage. 

USC’s topsy-turvy season would be arguably the best feel-good ending of conference championship weekend, but such will be a tall task. The Trojans will keep the game close, perhaps even control an early lead, but Stanford—behind its Heisman contender, McCaffrey—will be playing with more at stake, even if it doesn’t fully control its own destiny.

Prediction: Stanford 38, USC 31