Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals own the upper hand in the recent all-Ohio rivalry with the Cleveland Browns, winning 10 of the last 14 meetings outright and going 8-5-1 against the spread. The Bengals shoot to sweep the season series and take another step toward the AFC North title when they visit the Browns on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Bengals opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.2-16.2 Bengals

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincy just snapped a two-game losing streak with a solid 31-7 victory over the St. Louis Rams, covering as a 10-point favorite. The Bengals grabbed an early 10-0 lead, let the Rams get within three and then scored the last 21 points of the game, sealing the deal on a Leon Hall pick-six late in the third quarter.

Cincinnati outrushed St. Louis 140-94, and 60 of the Rams' yards came on one play. With last week's cover, the Bengals are now the best bet in the NFL this season at 9-1-1 ATS.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

If it weren't for bad luck, the Browns would have no luck at all. Cleveland lost in crazy fashion at home to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night 33-27 when a last-second, game-winning field-goal attempt was blocked and returned for a Ravens touchdown.

The Browns trailed Baltimore early 17-3, rallied to take a 20-17 lead, fell down again and then tied the score at 27-27 on backup quarterback Austin Davis' 42-yard touchdown pass to Travis Benjamin with just under two minutes to go. A Tramon Williams interception then gave Cleveland the ball back at midfield, setting up the heartbreak to follow.

Cleveland has now lost its last six games, but it's had a chance to win half of those.

Smart pick

Cincy is outrushing opponents this season by 16 yards per game, while Cleveland is getting outrushed by 61 yards per game. So far this NFL season, teams that outrush their opponents are covering the spread just under 70 percent of the time. Also, who's going to play quarterback for the Browns? The smart money here backs the Bengals.

Betting trends

• The favored team is 2-13-1 ATS in its last 16 games in this matchup.
• The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites in December.
• The Browns are 3-13 straight up in their last 16 games in Week 13.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.