Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts are both 5-5 on the season, and considering their circumstances, they're probably happy to be there. They're also both 5-1 against the spread over their last six games. In an interesting intraconference matchup, Tampa Bay visits Indianapolis Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Colts opened as three-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.0-20.0 Buccaneers

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs are 3-1 over their last four games after embarrassing the Eagles in Philly last week 45-17. A seven-point road dog, Tampa spotted the home team the first touchdown of the game, then scored 21 straight points to take a lead never to be relinquished. The Bucs then scored on the first drive of the second half to take complete control and tacked on a touchdown on an interception return near the end to put the icing on a blowout.

Tampa racked up 283 yards rushing on the day, won time of possession by almost 12 minutes and took advantage of four Philly turnovers. Bucs running back Doug Martin exploded for 235 yards on the ground, and rookie quarterback Jameis Winston threw five touchdown passes.

Tampa Bay has now outgained six of its last seven opponents and outrushed all of them.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy is now 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS this season without Andrew Luck after rallying to upset the Falcons in Atlanta last week 24-21, taking that game as a three-point road dog. The Colts trailed 14-0 midway through the second quarter, and 21-7 late into the third, then scored the last 17 points of the game—on a short Matt Hasselbeck touchdown pass, an interception return for a score and an Adam Vinatieri field goal with just under a minute to go—to steal the victory.

On the day, Hasselbeck hit on 23 of 32 throws for 213 yards and two scores, with two picks, and kept the chains moving, as Indy won time of possession by a 33-27 margin.

Earlier this season, Hasselbeck directed Indy to a 16-13 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars and a 27-20 win over the Houston Texans. On the season, the 40-year-old backup has completed 66 percent of his passes with just those two interceptions.

Smart pick

So far this season, Tampa Bay is outrushing opponents by 37 yards per game, while the Colts are getting outrushed by 14 yards per game. And teams that have won the ground battles this year have covered the spread 69 percent of the time. Bet the Bucs here, and they might not even need the points.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Colts.

The Colts are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games at home.

The total has gone under in eight of the Colts' last nine games as favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.