Do the Florida Gators Stand a Chance Against the Rival Florida State Seminoles?

2015 has already been an excellent season for the Florida Gators, no matter the measure.

Saturday, the Gators looked positively mortal, pushed to overtime by 2-9 Florida Atlantic before pulling out a 20-14 overtime victory in Gainesville.

Was it ugly? Sure. But for a program that lost to FCS Georgia Southern in the Swamp two short years ago, it was a thing of beauty.

"They took it to us," Florida coach Jim McElwain told SEC Network’s Laura Rutledge in a postgame interview on SEC Network. "We’ve got to get a lot better, and we have a week to get better to our next game. They probably deserved to win, but our guys are finding a way to win, and that’s really important."

McElwain became the first UF coach ever to win 10 games in his first season with the Gators. Florida is 10-1 and has already clinched the SEC East.

But the season isn’t complete. Far from it. To continue toward a truly special campaign, Florida must conquer perhaps its biggest nemesis: Florida State. The Gators still have hopes of making the College Football Playoff, but it won’t happen without defeating the Seminoles next Saturday in Gainesville.

Does Florida have a chance of beating the Seminoles and taking Sunshine State supremacy from their grasp? Absolutely.

Florida State hasn’t slipped much from a three-year run that saw Jimbo Fisher’s program collect three ACC titles, a BCS National Championship and qualify for the College Football Playoff in 2014. But the Seminoles have certainly slipped enough to be vulnerable against the Gators, especially on the road.

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If Florida competes with FSU, it will do so with defense. The talented unit, led by All-American cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, has propped up an offense that has struggled following quarterback Will Grier’s Oct. 12 NCAA suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drug use.

Following a 35-28 loss to LSU in the first post-Grier game Oct. 17, Florida’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points to any opponent. The Gators allowed a combined 10 points to Georgia and Vanderbilt, a huge factor in the SEC East victories.

They entered Saturday No. 5 nationally in total defense, allowing 280 yards per game and 4.44 yards per play. The Gators were ninth nationally in rush defense and No. 10 in pass defense, as well as fourth nationally in scoring defense (allowing 14.5 points per game).

Florida State’s offense has looked more active recently, averaging 39.5 points per game in wins over N.C. State and Syracuse. But on Nov. 7 the Seminoles struggled against Clemson’s talented defense, which was ranked No. 7 nationally in total defense entering Saturday. FSU got a 75-yard touchdown on the game’s second play thanks to Dalvin Cook but managed just two field goals the rest of the way.

The key to stopping Florida State is stopping Cook, who entered Saturday with 1,369 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns despite being less than 100 percent for much of the season with hamstring and ankle injuries.

Florida’s run defense has been tough but has allowed four 100-yard rushers in 11 games. LSU’s Leonard Fournette went for 180, Tennessee teammates Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd went for 136 and 102, respectively, and Vanderbilt’s Ralph Webb went for 118 yards.

Post-Jameis Winston, Florida State has vacillated between Everett Golson and Sean Maguire at quarterback but has settled on Maguire, who threw for 348 yards against Syracuse but has been inconsistent at best.

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If Florida’s front seven can contain Cook, that’s great news for Hargreaves and the secondary. The Gators defense has shown the ability to cause havoc against opposing quarterbacks, as Antonio Morrison showed by forcing a fumble that Taven Bryan picked up for a 48-yard return, setting up a key touchdown early in the second half vs. Florida Atlantic.

Sophomore quarterback Treon Harris is a liability against Florida State’s improving defense. Since Grier’s suspension, he has only two 200-yard passing games and has six passing touchdowns against four interceptions. Saturday, he was stripped on a scramble, which FAU turned into a defensive touchdown. 

But if Florida can avoid crucial offensive mistakes and get continued solid running from Kelvin Taylor, the Gators can compete with the Seminoles. Last fall, a dead-man-walking team in Will Muschamp’s final game as head coach pushed an unbeaten FSU to the wire before falling, 24-19, so this team will have a chance to emerge victorious next week.

Florida has only one win over Florida State in its last five tries, a 37-26 victory in 2012. But McElwain and Co. have a good chance to improve that record and head into Dec. 5's SEC title game at the Georgia Dome the new kings of the Sunshine State.