Updated 2015 NASCAR Title Odds: Week 35

Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway is the penultimate race in the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup.

And the way things are shaping up, it will be the biggest race of the season—next to the season-ending and championship-deciding race next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

This race will cut the field of eight drivers remaining in the Chase to only four for next week’s winner-take-all finale.

Jeff Gordon is the odds-on favorite heading to Homestead, if for no other reason than he’s the only driver who has earned an automatic berth for the championship race (by virtue of winning at Martinsville two weeks ago).

Every other driver—and every one of the three remaining spots for Homestead—remains up in the air.

Let’s look at how the title odds shape up going into Sunday’s race—and the potential implications of who does or doesn’t make the final round of four.

Joey Logano

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Joey Logano is a guy who thrives under pressure. And let’s not forget how he swept all three races during the second round of the Chase. Admittedly, he’s in a very tough spot coming into Phoenix, the only remaining driver in the Chase who is faced with a must-win situation. There’s no way Logano can mathematically still advance to the final round on points alone. It’s a one—make that won—or none proposition: win or he misses the final round. Will he be up to the challenge?

Working against him: I have Logano as a 100-1 long shot to win at Phoenix. The devastating tire explosion he suffered at Texas this past Sunday has put him in an extremely deep hole—much to Matt Kenseth’s delight. Plus, Logano has had marginal success at Phoenix: just two top-fives and five other top-10s in 13 career starts on the one-mile flat track. Given all the other drivers who want to reach Homestead, Logano has an almost impossible task to achieve.

Odds: 100-1 (down from 20-1 last week)

Brad Keselowski

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Believe it or not, Brad Keselowski may be Team Penske’s and Ford’s ace in the hole—not Joey Logano. If Logano and Keselowski both fail to advance to the championship race at Homestead, that would be rather embarrassing to Ford, as that means there would be no Ford representatives in the season-ending Ford 400, part of the Ford Championship Weekend. Keselowski is in a better position to reach Homestead, but he’ll have to hope that one of the four drivers ahead of him (not including points leader Jeff Gordon) suffers catastrophic failure early in Sunday’s race. That’s a long shot, but it’s still possible. And don’t be surprised if Keselowski wins the race, which would be another way to guarantee him—and Ford—will be in the season finale, with one last shot at the championship.

Working against him: Keselowski’s hopes to reach the Chase are not in his control. He has to hope that Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. or Carl Edwards has a bad day and retires early, opening the way for Keselowski to potentially sneak into the Chase finale if he can wind up at or above the fourth-place transfer spot in the Chase. Keselowski has had a less-than-inspiring season in 2015. It’s hard to imagine that he’s suddenly going to have the same kind of winning attitude and persona that carried him to the 2012 championship.

Odds: 50-1 (down from 30-1 last week)

Carl Edwards

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Carl Edwards has done just enough this season to get to where he’s at, but he’s yet to have a spectacular race. Time could run out for him to do just that at Phoenix. But there is a reason for optimism: In 22 career starts there, he has two wins, seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes, as well as three poles. In other words, he knows his way around that track quite well. If anyone is going to stop Kevin Harvick, who has won the last four races at PIR, Edwards is one of the potential remaining Chase drivers to do so.

Working against him: This is a make-or-break race for Edwards. He comes into Phoenix just under the cutoff line—seven points behind fourth-ranked Martin Truex Jr., and 12 points ahead of sixth-ranked Keselowski. Edwards is really going to have to rise to the occasion Sunday and hope one of the top four drivers currently falter in a big way. While that’s a possibility, there’s one fault with that logic: There are three other drivers behind Edwards (Keselowski, Kurt Busch and Logano) who are hoping for the same thing.

Odds: 50-1 (down from 30-1 last week)

Kurt Busch

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Kurt Busch promised after Martinsville that he would win at both Texas and Phoenix and head to Homestead as part of the Chase final four. Well, he fell short at Texas, so his last chance to make the final round is to do well at Phoenix.

And even though he’s 34 points behind Gordon and 28 points behind fourth-ranked Truex Jr., there’s still optimism for Busch to successfully pull off a Hail Mary bid to reach the final four. Busch has a good history in the Valley of the Sun: In 25 starts, he has one win, six top-five and 14 top-10 finishes.

He’ll need some misfortune from the guys above him if he’s to enjoy some good fortune for himself, but with everything on the line for all of the remaining Chasers (except for Gordon), Busch has as good a shot as anyone.

Working against him: In the regular season, a 34-point deficit separating you from the points leader would not be a difficult thing to overcome.

But when you’re in the Chase and you’re 34 points behind the leader (Gordon), and particularly when you’re 28 points behind the guy who has the last transfer spot heading into Phoenix (fourth-ranked Truex Jr.), things suddenly do not look so good.

Busch has done a good job of maintaining his composure and patience this season, but with a championship invite on the line, all bets are off of this being a gentlemanly race.

Odds: 25-1 (down from 15-1 last week)

Kyle Busch

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: This is the furthest Kyle Busch has ever advanced this late in the Chase. He’s currently second in the standings, just two points behind Gordon. In other words, the younger Busch brother is in a very good place right now—both literally and figuratively.

The remarkable job he’s done since his serious wreck in February is nothing short of a near-miracle. If Busch can get past Phoenix and advance to Homestead, it could be very hard to pick against him in the championship race.

Working against him: Fate has been cruel to Busch in past Chases. He’s never gone this far—or been this close to the championship—as he has in 2015. And that’s where the one rub we have against him reaching Homestead lies.

Whenever there’s been a big Chase race on the line, Busch has always fallen short—either by a mistake he or his team committed, or he’s been involved in an untimely wreck. Can Busch snap his run of late-Chase bad luck and move on to Homestead?

This could be the most difficult one to call among the seven remaining Chase drivers looking to advance to Homestead. Plus, one other thing to consider: Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin was sitting in what he thought was a comfortable second place heading into the last race of the previous round, the elimination race at Talladega.

Unfortunately, Hamlin had serious issues at the superspeedway and wound up being eliminated. Could it be deja vu for Busch?

Odds: 25-1 (same as last week)

Martin Truex Jr.

LM Otero/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Truex Jr.’s mantra this whole season has been “never give up,” and he’s done just that. He’s been strong the last several weeks and appears to be peaking at the right time heading to Phoenix. If Truex is able to advance to Homestead, he will already have claimed a significant victory of sorts, becoming the furthest-advancing driver from a single-car team in Chase history.

Truex is at the top of his game, and I do see him advancing to Homestead. But even if he doesn’t, he and his team have had an incredible season. They’re to be commended. Who knows, maybe this year’s Chase Cinderella will keep it going all the way to the championship.

Working against him: Truex is the guy on the bubble, the one everyone behind him is shooting to overtake. That’s a very difficult position to be in, as Edwards, Keselowski and Kurt Busch will all be eyeing Truex as the guy they have to beat—and not necessarily the guy who wins the race Sunday—to reach the final round at Homestead.

I love underdog stories, and Truex has been an outstanding one this season. Does he have enough to get it done one more time? That remains to be seen.

Odds: 15-1 (up from 25-1 last week)

Kevin Harvick

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Harvick wants a second straight championship as much—if not more—than he did when he won his first Sprint Cup crown in 2014. But will he be able to overcome some of his shortcomings, pit crew failures and mechanical issues that have occurred this season to move forward?

History is certainly on his side: He’s won the last four races at Phoenix and seven overall in his career. He knows PIR from when he started racing there as a young teenager. But winning five in a row is a very tough task to ask of anyone. Still, if anyone can do it, Harvick is the one.

Working against him: Fate may actually work against Harvick on Sunday. We all know that a long winning streak such as his four straight wins at PIR is due to be snapped sooner rather than later. But there’s another fact that Harvick needs to be very concerned about, particularly because of his success.

Look back to the elimination race at Dover in Round 1 of this year’s Chase. To many, Jimmie Johnson was a lock to win there again because he had already done so a record 10 times. What happened? Johnson was eliminated from the Chase at Dover (not coincidentally, Harvick won that race).

Then in the Round 2 elimination race at Talladega, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the overwhelming favorite to win (having won six races previously, making him the winningest active driver there). So what happened? Not only did Earnhardt not win, he was eliminated from further advancement in the Chase. Which begs us to ask one question: Et tu, Harvick?

Odds: 10-1 (unchanged from last week)

Jeff Gordon

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Working in his favor: Gordon can all but coast through Sunday’s race at Phoenix, knowing he’s locked into the final round next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But even though he was in a similar position at Texas this past Sunday, he still raced like he wanted to win, coming away with a strong top-10 showing.

Phoenix is one of Gordon’s favorite tracks, so what better way to amp up the momentum heading into Homestead then to go there with yet another win in his back pocket, earned in the Valley of the Sun

Working against him: I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: I don’t see much of anything working against Gordon in these last two races. When he gets to Homestead, he’s going to have the best car and motor Hendrick Motorsports has to offer, because HMS wants to see Gordon—who has meant so much to the organization—go out a winner with a fifth career Sprint Cup championship.

The only thing to be concerned about is if things get crazy at Homestead with Gordon’s three other challengers, and he gets taken out by one of them or perhaps a non-Chaser.

Odds: 4-1 (up from 5-1 last week)