Jason Witten Leads Tight Ends in 2008 Fantasy Football Rankings

One of the more challenging decisions in putting your fantasy team together is trying to figure out when the best time is to draft a tight end. The problem with tight ends is that most of them are not the featured target in a team’s passing game. With so few tight ends putting up starting wide-receiver-type numbers, there are only a few tight ends that warrant high fantasy draft selection.

To properly evaluate prospective tight ends for fantasy football purposes, one needs to look not only at the physical talents of the tight end, but also the quality of the offense. Vernon Davis is a perfect example.

Great size and 40-time, but he is stuck in an anemic quarterback situation with a lack of quality wide receivers around him. It still got him 509 receiving yards, which is not bad for a tight end. The problem is that he had only four touchdowns.

The separation between the good tight ends and the great tight ends is largely in the touchdown production. That is why Tony Gonzalez’s value has declined in recent years. He is still getting a lot of receptions and yards, but fewer touchdowns. In fantasy football, you usually get one point for every 10 yards receiving, as opposed to six points for one touchdown scored.

Therefore, Gonzalez and Davis lose value, because even if they have eight catches for 80 yards, they lose out to a tight end with three catches for 30 yards and one touchdown.

The production of the tight end is dependent upon a lot of factors. The most important is the same as with receivers, who is throwing him the ball? A good running back helps too, because it sells play action, which is a good way to get the ball to the tight end. If the line can block well, it gives the tight end more opportunities to run routes. Receivers are a mixed blessing.

While having receivers like Marvin Harrison has helped Dallas Clark excel over the years, his success goes to Peyton Manning’s talents and ability to spread out the ball. In Arizona, having Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin has not equated to Leonard Pope putting up huge numbers, in large part to the inconsistency they have had at signal caller, in the running game, and in the play action.

The more balance an offense has, the better the opportunity for the QB to excel. That is why Donald Lee came on in the second half of last season. He had a great QB the whole season, but the emergence of Ryan Grant made him even more difficult to cover. In 2005 and 2006, the Packers still had Favre, but struggled to run the ball. That caused Donald Lee to be nonexistent.

My general rule for determining where to draft a tight end is two-fold. I don’t like to draft a tight end much higher than the end of the third to fourth round, because while you are getting good value, you are doing it at the expense of the good running backs or wide receivers left on the board.

However, it is nice to have an excellent tight end, because you only need to carry another tight end on your roster for one other week (barring injury), which gives you more flexibility in carrying an extra QB, RB, or WR.

In the end, I want one of the top-10 guys; someone that I can play most weeks and not have to scroll the waiver wire for shots in the dark. Landing the No. 1 tight end is nice, but not a priority.

Each individual owner will come to a different conclusion about where the value is right, based on what is left on their draft board. My general rule is that if a tight end doesn’t accumulate more than 60 catches, 800 yards, and eight touchdowns (130 points) year in and year out, he probably isn’t worth drafting until at least the eight to 10th round, depending on when the run on tight ends occurs in the draft by the other owners.

Our site's writers ranked the Top Fantasy tight ends in the order listed below. Those rankings were averaged to come up with the website rankings. Here are my thoughts on the top 15 tight ends for 2008.  

NOTE: These rankings are for seasonal (re-draft) leagues only.

1) Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys)—He led the league in fantasy points last year for tight ends with 96 receptions for 1,145 yards, averaging 11.9 yards per catch, and scoring seven touchdowns. Tony Romo had over 4,200 yards passing last year, and had a QB rating of 97.4. Romo’s ability to spread the ball to a number of different weapons helps keep defenses honest.

Marion Barber and Felix Jones will force defenses to respect play action and the running game. Drafting Witten at the end of round three or later should result in a good value pick. You will probably not have an opportunity to pick him after the fourth round.

2) Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)—Gates has some injury questions from last year that some NFL analysts believe could linger into the '08-'09 season. Gates’ 2007 stats were 75 receptions for 984 yards, averaging 13.1 yards, and nine touchdowns. Gates is coming off a toe injury that could limit his production this year, an injury that would restrict his movement and limit his ability to get open.

Philip Rivers is coming off knee surgery. LaDainian Tomlinson also had knee issues to close the season. The passing and running game is suspicious with injuries to Tomlinson and Rivers. Gates would be the unanimous No. 1 if it were not for all these injury issues.

He is too good to pass up, and should also be drafted in the late third round or later, probably not lasting past the fourth round. Keep an eye on his recovery and the team’s health outlook in general, just to make sure that you are getting good value.

3) Kellen Winslow (Cleveland Browns)—He has had two consecutive 80-catch seasons and broke the 1,000 yard barrier in 2007. The only downside is that he has eight total touchdowns those two seasons. With Anderson having a good year in the offense, Braylon Edwards is becoming a top-flight receiver, and Jamal Lewis is rediscovering his legs, the Browns' offense is expected to be explosive again in 2008.

I would expect those touchdown numbers to go up. He isn’t quite in the Witten/Gates class, but is quickly approaching it. He is probably worthy of a fourth to fifth-round pick, depending on when the other two guys go.

4) Dallas Clark (Indianapolis Colts)—He has the best of both worlds; a QB in Peyton Manning that had 4,551 yards passing and a QB rating 98.7 and a RB in Joseph Addai who nearly had 1,400 combined yards and 11 touchdowns.  Combined with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez, Clark doesn’t see a lot of double coverage.

The problem is that he has a lot of weapons to share touches with. While his 11 touchdowns are the stuff of dreams, his 58 receptions for 616 yards is not nearly as productive as the elite tight ends. He is still worth grabbing in the fifth round or later.

5) Tony Gonzalez (Kansas City Chiefs)—He has been the center of a struggling pass offense for the past few years now, and with the Chiefs clearly rebuilding, Gonzalez, at age 32, led the league in catches for a TE last season with 99 receptions for 1,172 yards, averaging 11.8 yards.

The downside is that he hasn’t scored more than five touchdowns since 2004. While Witten had only seven touchdowns in 2007, there is a lot more upside there with Romo than Gonzalez has with Croyle/Huard. Gonzalez is projected to land in the fifth to sixth rounds.

6) Chris Cooley (Washington Redskins)—Chris is on a team that made the playoffs in 2007, but is changing to the West-Coast Offense. Cooley had 66 receptions for 786 yards, averaging 11.9 yards, and eight touchdowns. 

The West-Coast Offense utilizes the tight end, so it isn’t like Mike Martz or the Run 'n Shoot is coming to town. Jim Zorn just wasn’t able to do that in Seattle, because they had very little talent at that position. Cooley is a consistently strong performer, and as long as Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts do well, the Redskins will be able to utilize him in play-action and in the end zone. Drafting Cooley in the fifth to seventh rounds is still a good bet.

7) Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers)—The Steelers have been known as a smash-mouth team, but they have shown an ability to move the ball in the air under first year coach Mike Tomlin. Miller is the key ingredient in run formations that can also play in single-back sets. 

Miller had 47 receptions for 566 yards, averaging 12 yards, and scored seven touchdowns. He has the same problem as Clark, in that there are a lot of good offensive weapons to spread the ball to. Drafting Miller in the sixth to eighth rounds is a good bet.

8) Benjamin Watson (New England Patriots)—Watson rushed out of the gates in 2007 with 17 catches for 194 yards and five touchdowns. That would have put him on pace for 620 yards and 16 touchdowns. Then he got hurt, and even though he came back in Week Nine, he was never really the same player. 

Tom Brady loves using the tight end, and is the best in the business at play- action, so Watson should see an increase in productivity in 2008, if he can stay healthy. He is always an end zone threat more than a big yardage threat due to his blocking role and Randy Moss and Wes Welker in place. He is a secondary option in the Patriots' offense. That is still good enough to go in the seventh to ninth rounds.

9) Owen Daniels (Houston Texans)—Daniels has had to stay in for run blocking and pass protection, has not had a great QB, and other than Andre Johnson, does not have a consistent target to draw coverage away downfield. Daniels had 63 catches for 768 yards, 12.2 yards per catch, and three TDs. 

I’m not in love with him, but I think he has good value. Because he doesn’t have the name recognition of a Heap or Shockey, you can probably wait to draft him after the 10th round and still get good value. If Ahman Green can stay healthy or if Chris Brown is able to give the Texans a more consistent running game, teams will have to respect play-action passing. 

He’s the type of player to pick if the value is right, but not to be afraid if another owner drafts him before you. Having or not having him will not make or break your fantasy season.    

10) Jeremy Shockey (New York Giants)—Shockey had a very good season in 2007, even though he was injured just before the playoffs. Kevin Boss played well in his place, and while the Giants didn’t score 35-plus points, they had a very efficient offense that carried them to road wins over Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Green Bay, as well as the Super-Bowl victory over New England. 

Shockey became rumored to be on the trade block with the emergence of TE Kevin Boss. New Orleans was the rumored destination. That fell through, and it looks like he is going to stay a Giant. Shockey had 57 catches for 619 yards, 10.9 yards per catch, and three touchdowns.

Because he has name value, you will have to draft him in the seventh to eighth rounds. Depending on what is on the board and how you draft, that may or may not make sense. Expect a solid year, but nothing close to the top names on the list.

11) Todd Heap (Baltimore Ravens)—Heap would be much higher on the list if it were not for injury concerns and an uncertain quarterback situation. Heap had 23 receptions for 219 yards and one touchdown in six games last year. He had played in 16 games in 2005 and 2006; so don’t let the injury concerns scare you too bad. 

He is only 28-years old, so it isn’t as if he is ready for the NFL retirement announcement. Heap at this point is still a draft worthy. I think his value is in the ninth to 10th round, but he may not last that long with his name recognition.

Keep in mind how tough Baltimore’s schedule is this season as well. They play Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Pittsburgh twice, Cleveland twice, Dallas, NY Giants, Philadelphia, and Washington. That is not good news with Kyle Boller at quarterback and two youngsters in the mix. If someone takes him before you, it will not be the end of the world.

12) Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)—He was drafted No. 6 overall in the first round of 2006, but has yet to have a breakout season. Mike Martz has never been big on using the tight end, but will have to this season given his less-than-adequate receiver situation. The good news for Davis is that he has receiver-like 40 times and skills, which will be more attractive to Martz than his previous tight ends.

With the addition of Mike Martz and some additional mentoring, Davis could be primed for a big season. Davis had 52 receptions for 509 yards, 9.8 per catch with four TDs. Davis is another guy with name value, because of his high draft-status and 40-yard dash time, so he probably won’t be available after the ninth to 10th round.

13) Donald Lee (Green Bay Packers)—This is a player that is hard to value off of last year’s production, given the fact that Brett Favre retired. We don’t know what kind of QB Aaron Rodgers will become, no matter how good he looked in the Dallas game. If Rodgers is not as good as expected, that could hurt Grant’s production, which, in turn, will hurt play-action and Lee’s value. Keep in mind that Lee had 43 receptions for 444 yards and two touchdowns in 2005 and 2006, so there isn’t exactly a large body of work to go off of. 

That was with Favre in the lineup. Last year could have been a one-year wonder for Lee. Only time will tell, though. Lee is probably someone you are looking to draft after the 10th round and is a borderline No. 1 tight end.

14) Tony Scheffler (Denver Broncos)—Some people have become a little scared about the Bronco’s offense in 2008 due to the diagnoses of Jay Cutler with Type 1 Diabetes. While something that serious is always a concern, you have to remember that he will have the best medical staff and trainers that money can buy. 

I am confident the Broncos will make sure that it does not affect their offense.  Scheffler is one of Cutler’s favorite targets. He had 49 catches for 549 yards, 11.2 per catch, with five TDs. While a run game by committee became a major problem last year, and they have an offense that failed to score touchdowns inside the 20; the Broncos main downfall was a run defense that could not stop anyone. 

Scheffler is a good pick that may make it to the waiver wire, but will probably be picked up by fantasy owners in the 12th round or later. He is a borderline No. 1 tight end.

15) Alge Crumpler (Tennessee Titans)—He was cut in the offseason by the Atlanta Falcons. He was a key cog in the passing game while Michael Vick was at the helm, but struggled with injuries and poor QB play in 2007.

I was surprised he did not sign with Seattle, as I thought that would have been a much better fit. Crumpler comes to a team in a similar situation that the Falcons had in Vick where Vince Young is the starter. He is a very mobile QB that can get the ball down field, but is not always the most accurate passer. 

The Titans’ relied on a strong defense and running game to win in 2007. They were anemic passing the ball, and Crumpler should help out in that regard, although this offense will never be confused with the '07 Patriots. Drafting Crumpler in the late rounds could give you some unexpected production, but he is probably not someone that you want as your No. 1 tight end.

RANK	PLAYER
1	Jason Witten
2	Antonio Gates
3	Kellen Winslow
4	Dallas Clark
5	Tony Gonzalez
6	Chris Cooley
7	Heath Miller
8	Ben Watson
9	Owen Daniels
10	Jeremy Shockey
11	Todd Heap
12	Vernon Davis
13	Donald Lee
14	Tony Scheffler
15	Alge Crumpler
16	L.J. Smith
17	Eric Johnson
18	Greg Olsen
19	Zach Miller
20	Ben Utecht
21	Randy McMichael
22	Leonard Pope
23	Mercedes Lewis
24	Desmond Clark
25	Kevin Boss
26	Dustin Keller
27	Alex Smith
28	Anthony Fasano
29	Robert Royal
30	John Carlson
31	Visante Shiancoe
32	Jeff King
33	Michael Gaines
34	Ben Hartsock

Derek Lofland is the NFL director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com