TCU Football: Horned Frogs' Road to College Football Playoff

Unlike 2014, the TCU Horned Frogs entered this season with high expectations. Despite numerous injuries and attrition, especially on defense, the Frogs have been able to remain undefeated.

Not surprisingly, TCU is ranked in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff selection committee's first poll for 2015. However, the committee views TCU as the second-best team in the Big 12 and, if the season ended today, not playoff worthy.

The good news for TCU is there's already been a precedent set of teams shooting up the rankings in the final weeks (i.e. Ohio State, which started No. 16 in last year's rankings).

Here's how the Horned Frogs can get to the playoff. 

Where the Horned Frogs Stand

TCU came in ranked No. 8 in the first standings, but this team certainly isn't in bad shape. In fact, the Frogs are ranked just one spot lower than where they were in the initial playoff rankings from a year ago.

Record	Playoff Ranking	Sagarin Strength of Schedule
8-0 (5-0)	8th	53rd

The ranking is ultimately meaningless, but it is a peek into the process by which TCU was judged. TCU's strength of schedule is far better than Baylor's, but it's clear the committee has valued how the the Horned Frogs have looked. At home, TCU is beating teams by an average of 38.7 points per game. On the road, that number shrinks to just 10 points per game. 

In short, the committee is taking a more "wait-and-see" approach with TCU than it is with Baylor, even though neither made the first top four. However, it is interesting to note that folks in Vegas think more highly of TCU than the committee does: 

Help Needed

Technically, yes, but it's not that much. 

TCU will help itself tremendously if it wins out. Like the rest of the Big 12's top four teams, the Frogs have a remarkably back-loaded schedule. All its quality wins will come in the month of November. 

If TCU goes 12-0 it should be in the field. The only thing left to determine would be seeding. If TCU loses a game, though, its chances are in jeopardy. By ranking Alabama No. 4, the committee sent a strong message that a one-loss SEC team could have an inside track to the field of four if things get a little chaotic. One-loss Notre Dame is also getting serious consideration. 

That would be bad news for the Big 12 if its champion had a loss. 

In summary, an undefeated Big 12 champion likely wouldn't need help to get into the playoff field, but a one-loss champion absolutely would. 

Final Bowl Prediction

Everybody knows about TCU's offense, quarterback Trevone Boykin and receiver Josh Doctson. They're the stars and they will always be the stars. 

Quietly, though, TCU's new-look defense has steadily improved. The Frogs ranked second in the Big 12 in yards-per-play allowed (4.76) for the month of October. Granted, the likes of Texas and West Virginia aren't offensive juggernauts, but those are the types of games in which TCU can build up confidence on defense. 

TCU will need to get the most out of that defense for the tough road ahead, but the fact this short-handed group is improving is a positive sign. Things could get chaotic between now and then, but the Nov. 27 game against Baylor is still shaping up to have major implications. The winner of that game could be playoff bound, with the loser going to the Sugar Bowl.

Prediction: Cotton Bowl  

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.