Tim Redding vs. Vicente Padilla: Fantasy Showdown

Another question about fringe starters and where they should rank on many teams lists...

Q: Should I drop Vicente Padilla for Tim Redding? Ive seen that over 4,000 teams dropped Padilla after his poor performance this week. In my free agency consists of Jorge Campillo (RP), Joey Devine (RP), Tim Redding (SP) Hong-Chih Kuo (RP & SP), Dana Eveland (SP), Aaron Laffey (SP), or Leo Nunez (RP & SP). Yahoo sports says a sleeper is Andy Sonnanstine. So what do you think my best move is? Tim Redding is my top prospect but I'm kind of new to fantasy baseball. Any help much appreciated thank you!

A: Redding has looked good early in the season. He's held down opponents to a .210 average and his ERA is still hovering around 3.10. The key is, even if his levels go up, you have to ride the streak until it's over. His home numbers have been good, and his road numbers have been even better. I don't expect that end to continue, because I don't expect any pitcher to hold batters to an average under .100. But his home splits make the move decent. Most of his success has been predicated on getting ahead of hitters, and he's done that very well.

I'm a big fan of Padilla, but basically he's a spot starter still in most leagues of 10 teams. 12 team mixed leagues make him more attractive, but I think you can recreate his stats with a lot of other pitchers and over the course of the entire season, you'll see Redding better than Padilla. Add to that, the Rangers play in a very hitter friendly park, and that works against a fringe starter like Padilla. He certainly is worth it against certain teams, but on a consistent basis he's a very high risk proposition with a potential for high reward.

Looking at Sonnanstine, he is a potential sleeper. But you need to look beyond his most recent start against St. Louis. Sonnanstine has racked up early season wins mainly due to run support. His peripheral stats, particularly ERA, are not good. His offense keeps him in games, but when balls are put in play, opponents are hitting .350 against him. Sonnanstine has an ERA over 6.00 for the month and hitters are at .337 for all of May. Overall, they hit .290 against him for the season. Worse, considering he plays half his games at home, he's been awful at the Trop.

I think of that list of free agents, the one that I would most want on my team is Dana Eveland. Eveland has looked very good for Oakland and pitches in a very friendly ballpark with all the foul territory. He's also part of a rotation that is fast becoming one of the better in baseball. His win totals will suffer because of the offense he's surrounded by, but he's certainly worth owning in deep mixed leagues and all AL-only formats.